所羅門美邦研究報告 -- Soros Online

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Date Posted: 11:54:52 03/14/01 Wed
Author: 所羅門美邦
Subject:

所羅門美邦研究報告

所羅門美邦研究報告指，由日本經濟衰退所引發的風險正在上升，對中國的影響可能會舉足輕重，但該影響仍未於市場中反映。該報告對此作出闡釋：首先日本經濟衰退會令貿易放緩，損害中遠太平洋（１１９９）、招商局（０１４４）及華創（０２９１）的盈利；日本貶值雖令駿威汽車（０２０３）及慶鈴汽車（１１２２）受惠，但出口製造商將會受壓；日本需求降低，有助紓緩油價壓力、航空業及下游的化工業。
　　報告更預期，國內Ｂ股短期內或會進行改革，有關當局亦會提出為Ｂ股降溫的措施，從而影響近期追趕落後而造好的中資股份，如ＴＣＬ（１０７０）、廣東科龍（０９２１）及青島啤（０１６８）。另外，中國經濟可能作溫和增長，一向倚賴對出口製造及高煤價格地區供電的能源股將受到影響，該行目前推薦高增長及沿海地區業務比例較少的北京大唐（０９９１）及華能國際（０９０２）。
　　所羅門美邦指出，由於宏觀經濟正出現下降風險，短期內應不會調整中資股評級，故建議投資者在個別上升股份中，如駿威汽車、頂益（０３２２）、華能國際、招商局及華創作出先行獲利。

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