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Date Posted: 01:31:25 12/12/99 Sun
Author: a
Subject: a

ather than a return to the Cold War. While neither the United States nor Russia is eager to return to Cold War relations,
Russia faces conflicts in its attempts to rebuild which could lead both nations down that road. If Russia moves into the
Southern Caucasus to secure its southern border, relations between the two powers would be forced into deep
freeze.

Analysis:

Russian President Boris Yeltsin returned from his informal summit with Chinese President Jiang Zemin on Dec. 10.
While in China, the obviously ailing Yeltsin heightened tensions between the United States and Russia by publicly
reminding U.S. President Bill Clinton that Russia had a full arsenal of nuclear weapons. Clinton responded in kind,
saying he assumed Russia had been keeping U.S. military power in mind in tempering its disapproval over Kosovo.

This exchange is only the most recent of a series of events reminiscent of the Cold War. Russia is currently attempting
to use the prospect of START II ratification as a bargaining chip in relations with the West. The last two weeks have
seen the latest episode of the spy wars, with Russia and the United States ferreting out and deporting token
intelligence agents. Just last month, Russia deployed its Topol-M missiles in response to a proposed Anti-Ballistic
Missile deployment. And, in the preceding months, Russia has made aggressive moves such as sending bombers
around Iceland and Norway, and marching troops in to the Pristina airport in Kosovo, in defiance of NATO command.

These moves don�t represent a return to the Cold War, but are aimed at portraying Russia as an effective world
power and drawing domestic attention away from internal problems. Russia wants to use Western fears that
economic instability will lead to increased militarism to draw continued funding from the West. An indication of this, the
state-funded daily Vremya reported Dec. 8 that continued international pressure would only fuel Russian nationalism
and militarism.

So far, the exchanges between Russia and the United States have not crossed from words into action. White House
spokesman Joe Lockhart�s said on Dec. 7 that withdrawing aid to Russia would only result in undermining Russian
democracy, suggesting IMF loan installments will continue. However, the United States will only be able to maintain this
support so long as Russia�s militarism remains within its borders, which is far from guaranteed.

The greatest danger of Russian expansion lies within the Caucasus. There are several recent precedents for a
Russian interference in the Southern Caucasus. Russia has already used the Chechen conflict to pressure Georgia
and Azerbaijan. Moscow has been accused of backing the 1998 attempt on Georgian President Eduard
Shevardnadze�s life. As well, Russia attempted to increase its influence in Armenia after the October parliament
assassinations, either by opportunism or design.

Were Russia to invade, or sponsor a coup in, Georgia or Azerbaijan, the United States would be hard-pressed not to
react strongly. Both states are U.S. allies in the region. The need to maintain the confidence of other countries in the
region would pressure the United States to at least suspend economic aid to Russia, if not make military threats.

If the United States did not respond to such an instance of Russian expansion, other U.S. allies in the region would
have few options besides turning to Russia for security. Russia may already be trying to convince Azerbaijan that
Russia is a better guarantor of security than the far-

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