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Subject: 女皇杯分析(見內文)


Author:
Andy
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Date Posted: 18:21:05 04/25/03 Fri
Author Host/IP: imsbbcf09.netvigator.com/218.102.21.153

今年巡迴賽,只能用多災多難形容:杜拜世界杯因為戰火退出、新航國際杯又因為SARS退出。而女皇杯於呢個時勢下,都仲可以舉行,真係"多謝上帝"!

由於受SARS影響,令女皇杯只得三隻外隊參加,變相係11隻港隊打三隻外隊。但跑馬唔可以用"人多蝦人少"o黎計,點都要以馬匹狀態、實力、場地、及環境適應為大前題。

外隊中,榮進寶蹄實力最強,對香港環境已經毫不陌生,又巧合地再抽一檔(因為上年都係抽一檔取勝),再加上練馬師、馬主及JRA不理日本政府反對下仍堅持來港衛冕,論決心值得信賴。但係唔係全無弱點?當然唔係啦。首先,單係一檔已經可以係爭勝障礙!二千米排一檔話就話可以慳位,但要贏就需取決兩大因素:1)能否及時望空、2)步速影響。由於排一檔關係,如果入直路前唔可以迅速抽出中外欄衝刺,好容易會困死,特別係對榮進寶蹄呢類需要望空衝刺之馬,萬一入直路前或直路中被困死,就會影響其後勁。香港杯時正因為直路受阻,結果雖成功突圍但為時已晚;而且作為眾矢之的,好容易成為對手針對目標。所以,取位及望空成為榮進寶蹄能否成功爭勝之重要因素。其次,步速快慢亦係另一個爭勝因素。香港杯時之超慢步速、加上福永佑一留得太後,結果後上不及;今次女皇杯情況同香港杯時差唔多,因為步速有好大可能偏慢,會放頭o既只得自家飛一隻,隨時會再出現步速偏慢,如果福永佑一唔吸取香港杯之教訓,隨時會喪師於慢步速之下。所以,榮進寶蹄可以話屬於可勝但不穩之馬。

至於寶伶俐,今次排檔可以話係最大障礙,加上騎師未來過香港策騎,好有可能因為臨場應變能力不足而影響發揮,所以較欠冠軍相;而最終勝利雖嫌杜拜免稅店杯一役水準較低,但今次賽事水準相信同杜拜一役差唔多,可以搏偷雞。

而港隊方面,勝威旺可以話係希望所在。此馬比唔少雄馬更具鬥心,而且長力十足,而排七檔更加理想,因為走位可以更靈活;係要擔心打比一役會唔會耗力太多,以及近日炎熱天氣會唔會影響呢隻雌馬作戰水準。論馬同榮進寶蹄一樣,屬於可爭欠穩一類。

愛倫四隻,個人覺得自家飛及掌門有一定機會。先講掌門,計馬二千已經係最佳路程,而且論級數在此群馬中已有爭勝之力,加上排二檔對此匹較均速之馬走位有利,可以視為危險分子,但場地太快會對有腳患o既佢有一定影響;而自家飛最有利之處係今場又冇步速,只要賴維銘迅速埋欄,且戰且走下不難有位置機會。

至於計得精彩,個人認為唔係冇機會,但係就要睇際遇。如果韋達迅速搵到cover,加上步速又偏慢之下,就再有機會可以重施故技。

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Replies:
Subject Author Date
Andy正正路路都叫中左三重彩0番。韋達騎隻「計得精彩」唔知大家有何意見,個人就覺得佢0既發揮有多少侮辱左賽馬。冼仔16:27:54 04/28/03 Mon
Re: 女皇杯分析(見內文)Richard21:14:37 04/28/03 Mon


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