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Subject: Postive News Author: Keith [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ] Date Posted: 17:09:22 10/28/04 Thu WHY THE GOP IS TRYING TO SUPPRESS THE MINORITY VOTE Kevin Drum describes a Republican poll: Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has just finished a survey of 12 battleground states and finds Bush and Kerry tied with 47% of the vote apiece. But when he weights for minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Kerry is ahead 49.2%-45.7%. And when he further updates the weighting to take into account the most recent census results, Kerry is ahead 49.9%-44.7%. As Fabrizio blandly puts it, “It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President’s campaign.” More accurately, if Fabrizio is right—that Kerry is ahead by 5% overall in the battleground states—Kerry is a sure winner on November 2. Suddenly the Bush campaign’s obsession with challenging voters in minority neighborhoods makes a lot of sense, doesn’t it? Their own internal polling is probably telling the same thing that Fabrizio’s poll says: unless they somehow manage to keep the minority vote down, they’re doomed. Ben Wikler IF YOU want to read the whole thing ... go to thealfrankenshow.com and scroll down to this story and click to the link. [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]