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Date Posted: 13:19:37 11/12/06 Sun
Author: No name
Subject: 澳日交叉有沽壓
In reply to: 's message, "Re: 澳元趁低吸納仍值博" on 13:36:11 11/08/06 Wed

澳日交叉有沽壓

13/11/2006
文: 大福證券外匯部業務經理 李定中

上周四美國公布貿易赤字為643億美元,在油價進一步回落下,赤字仍然高企,及後受中國人民銀行行長周小川暗示,中國有意把外匯儲備多樣化的消息刺激,美元上周兌各主要貨幣均呈現跌市,歐元兌美元更挑戰1.29心理關口位。
筆者認為,歐元匯價短期內在1.2950將會見頂。原因為市場普遍已消化歐元區在十二月加息之預期,儘管十二月歐洲央行決定加息亦不能在市場上起太大刺激作用,加上近期歐元區之經濟數據表現並沒有太大突破,九月零售銷售之年月率更明顯比八月有所回落。

反觀美國,因為物價指數仍維持溫和增長,上周美國官員均紛紛指出,美國聯儲局可能需進一步加息以控制通脹風險。加上市場人士預期,在議席上佔優的民主黨會在中東問題及經濟上處理得更好。因此建議可在1.29至1.2950沽空歐元,目標為1.2650,突破1.30止蝕。

澳洲公布十月就業人數減少3.1萬,預期增長1萬人,就業參考率亦明顯低於預期,由65.1下調至64.7,加上日本央行行長福井俊彥對套息交易的言論,引起澳元兌日圓獲利盤打壓,建議0.77沽空澳元,目標0.7550,破0.7760止損。

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