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Date Posted: 10:53:00 11/22/06 Wed
Author: No name
Subject: 分析師認同澳本輪加息周期可能已結束

分析師認同澳本輪加息周期可能已結束
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在接受調查的22位分析師中﹐有19位認同澳洲央行11月8日加息是本輪緊縮周期中的最後一次﹐本輪周期始于2002年5月。

澳洲央在11月8日加息25個基點至6.25%﹐為5月以來第三次加息﹐旨在經濟過熱之際抑制通脹壓力。

但分析師預期中值發現﹐澳洲央行在07年初再加息的幾率仍為32%﹐這很可能在07年2月﹐屆時澳洲已經發布第四季通脹報告。

僅有三位分析師認同澳洲央行進一步加息至6.5%的機率高于50%﹐而澳洲央行在最近發布的季度貨幣政策報告中也為未來加息留有余地。

澳洲10月失業率降至30年新低4.6%﹐而澳洲國民銀行針對企業進行的調查發現﹐產能利用率已攀升至紀錄高位83.5%。西太平洋銀行認同﹐這些因素對基礎通脹的影響滯後約三個季度﹐這意味著基礎通脹上升的趨勢將進入07年。

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