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Date Posted: 10:01:56 09/05/06 Tue
Author: No name
Subject: 無心倒扁凱道已非馬英九主戰場
In reply to: 's message, "扁馬正面交鋒" on 16:40:19 09/03/06 Sun

無心倒扁凱道已非馬英九主戰場

中國時報蕭旭岑特稿/倒扁靜坐蓄勢待發,山雨欲來風滿樓,但泛藍共主馬英九卻已另辟戰場。馬英九很清楚,倒扁早已非國民党戰場,二○○八年大選將到來,國民党沒有必要再逼扁下台﹔發揮國會席次优勢,為民立法興利,才是最重要的策略。
六月罷免案一過,陳水扁堅拒下台,民進党全党護航,馬英九就知道「倒扁」這場仗,國民党已是強弩之末。未來除非高檢署能証實扁确有涉案,否則彈劾、罷免都已不可遄F即使親民党喊得再大聲,國民党也將靜默以對。

事實上,國民党內部對施明德倒扁行動能否成功,態度也相當保留,衹因倒扁靜坐在法律面和政治面都牽動馬英九,國民党必須審慎因應﹔但党內高層与幕僚都已在准備二○○八年大選,那才是馬英九真正的戰場。

跡象顯示,國民党已將舞台重新設定在立法院,而非凱達格蘭大道。馬英九說街頭抗爭代表普遍民意,但最后還是要回到國會与行政部門執行,已可略見端倪﹔在馬的意志下,國民党下會期將通過陽光法案、審查軍購案,甚至監委人事同意權也露出曙光。

馬英九确實有相當的急迫感,因為國民党的國會多數迄今并未幫他加分,等總統大選一幵打,民進党一定會問:「國民党掌握多數,但是這几年在立法院做了什么?」如果現在不補強立法院成績單,等進入大選年,藍綠全面攻防對決,要再「補考」,時間上也有些遲了。

回歸議會路線、累積立法績效,也是精算政治得失的結果。眾所周知,無論扁下呂上或扁續留任,泛藍組閣都是可能選項,更是可以裂解泛藍的一著好棋﹔离總統大選衹剩一年多,國民党絕不希望橫生枝節,卷入權力漩渦,倒閣、組閣,都不是馬樂見的選項。

換言之,馬英九如果确立二○○八年前的基調都當「忠誠的反對党」,在政治上毋宁是聰明的決定。在明年大選年來臨前,國民党利用這個會期好好沖刺立法績效,以不奪權換取民眾信任,也避免泛藍裂解,等到二○○八年再与民進党一決高下。

有意思的是,從政治現實來看,扁馬可能是目前政局里最希望「維持現狀」的兩個人。扁希望不下台,做到二○○八,在藍綠對立下脫身﹔馬也盼維持現狀,國民党好好打拼,累積○八年實力。扁不下台,民進党繼續腐化,扁也等于在幫馬輔選。

扁馬眼睛都望向二○○八,扁在等任滿,馬摩拳擦掌,唯一的變數還是在施明德。當施明德坐下,民意怒火涌現,「現狀」即非扁馬所能控制﹔扁馬的政治前程都系于施明德,這或許是今年最有趣、也最吊詭的政治大戲。

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