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Subject: It's Hard to Win All The Games You're Supposed To -- Columbia and Princeton Author: An Observer [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ] Date Posted: 14:29:37 03/09/26 Mon In reply to: An Observer 's message, "Undefeated Regular Seasons in WBB" on 21:07:41 03/08/26 Sun What's the point here? It's tough to show up for work every time out. Here's an interesting math problem. Let's say that UConn is a 99% favorite to win every one of its 31 regular season games. What is the joint probability that the Huskies do in fact go 31-0? The answer is 73%. Well, UConn, even with likely national POY Sarah Strong (who averages only 25 minutes per game), is NOT a 99% favorite to win all their games. Maybe they're a 99% favorite to win ten games, 95% favorite to win ten games and 90% favorite to win their last eleven. Now what is the joint probability that UConn goes 31-0? It's only 18%. And yet here the Huskies are, undefeated at 31-0. That is a real achievement. What about here in the Ivy League? I watched the last Princeton-Columbia women's game, the one at Levien. The Lions won by 14. I'm a little surprised it was THAT close. I thought Columbia was that much physically and athletically superior. Princeton had literally not one player who could beat her defender off the dribble, allowing Columbia to harass the Tigers up close and tight without fear of giving up a drive. If you had told me at that point, "There will not be a shared championship. One of these two teams will drop back," I would have bet a lot of money that it would be Columbia raising the trophy last Saturday. So what's the point? It's hard to show up for business every single game. Full credit to Princeton for doing exactly that. I love my girlfriend Megan. She makes Ivy League basketball exciting and interesting to watch, in a way that frankly James Jones and Mitch Henderson do not. She had Columbia ready to go both times they played Princeton, winning comfortably at Jadwin and in a rout at Levien. Megan won the two big games -- decisively. But part of being a great coach is winning the games you're supposed to win. Berube did that 24 times this season so far. My girlfriend did not. One of the oddities of most post-accolades is that they are awarded before the most meaningful games are played. I still expect Columbia to win the ILT. The Lions are better than Princeton. Are they superior to Harvard? Better than a coin toss. But if you're going to name a coach of the year now, gotta go with Berube. [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

Replies:

[> Subject: Re: Undefeated Regular Seasons in WBB Author: joiseyfan [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 18:09:04 03/09/26 Mon This is nothing new. Carla’s total record at Princeton is 145-28 while consistently playing the toughest OOC schedule in the league, to give the Tigers the chance to get an NCAA bye instead of depending on the ILT. Her 84% winning pct is 1% behind Pat Summitt and 14% ahead of Courtney Banghart.

[> [> Subject: Re: Undefeated Regular Seasons in WBB Author: joiseyfan [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 11:32:06 03/11/26 Wed and as Jerry Price points out, her dog is named Scooby Berube.