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Subject: Re: 4-way shared title still possible Author: voy vey [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ] Date Posted: 20:53:39 11/12/25 Wed In reply to: voy vey 's message, "4-way shared title still possible" on 16:00:33 11/12/25 Wed I averaged the win probabilities for each remaining game from Massey and Sagarin and based on those, here are the likelihoods for each possible combination of league champs: Harvard 72.29% Harvard, Yale 24.16% Yale 2.52% Dartmouth, Harvard, Penn, Yale 0.36% Dartmouth, Harvard, Yale 0.30% Harvard, Penn, Yale 0.19% Cornell, Harvard, Penn, Yale 0.10% Cornell, Harvard, Yale 0.08% Observations: * Princeton, Columbia and Brown are already eliminated. * The only scenario in which Harvard does not get at least a share of the title is if Yale is the sole champion (and that's a 1-in-40 longshot). 97.5% chance they get at least a share. * Probability that Yale gets at least share of the title: 27.7% (about 1-in-3.6) * Probability that Dartmouth gets a share of the title: 0.66% (about 1-in-150) * Probability that Penn gets a share of the title: roughly the same as Dartmouth * Probability that Cornell gets a share of the title: 0.18% (about 1-in-555) * As for the playoff AQ, obviously if H or Y win an outright title, they get the bid. With a shared title, since we don't know the exact tiebreaker process (has it ever been stated?), the following is just a guess, but I believe Yale would win the tiebreakers in perhaps every possible shared scenario. The one possible exception is very interesting: if there's three-way tie between H, Y and Dartmouth, things could get crazy. They'd all be 1-1 against each other. The NESN announcers for last week's Yale-Brown game speculated that the next tiebreaker is record vs. the next highest team in the standings. For H/Y/D to tie for the title, there'd also have to be a 3-way tie for the next highest spot -- Penn, Cornell and Princeton would all have to finish 4-3. And guess what? The three title claimants would all be 1-1 against those three. Next up? Brown. All three beat Brown. Last up, 0-7 Columbia, who all three have beaten. Then what? Point differential? Crazy stuff! [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

Replies:

[> [> Subject: Re: 4-way shared title still possible Author: voy vey [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 21:00:33 11/12/25 Wed One typo in the last line. Should have been: The three title claimants would all be 2-1 against those three. (Not 1-1)

[> [> Subject: Re: 4-way shared title still possible Author: Hotspur [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 06:58:10 11/13/25 Thu Could pull name out of a hat, as was done once or twice for lacrosse AQ, IIRC.

[> [> [> Subject: Re: 4-way shared title still possible Author: sparman [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 07:24:13 11/13/25 Thu I don't think that has ever actually been done. Amazingly the formal rules called for a coin flip as a final tiebreaker at one time, but I don't think it ever came to that either.

[> [> [> [> Subject: Re: 4-way shared title still possible Author: Hotspur [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 16:26:43 11/13/25 Thu In 2003 there was a three-way tie for the lacrosse championship. Ivy League got two NCAA slots and Princeton got one on a tiebreaker. Tiebreakers could not separate Dartmouth and Cornell so a coin flip gave the slot to Big Green.

[> [> [> [> [> Subject: Good catch Author: sparman [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 10:44:21 11/14/25 Fri Surprisingly little mention of this in google searches.

[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Good catch Author: Hotspur [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 15:07:54 11/14/25 Fri Couldn't find it either, but had a recollection. Did find a reference to it in a posting on the Cornell hockey forum.

[> [> Subject: Re: 4-way shared title still possible Author: John Harvard (Tie-Breaker) [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 09:36:06 11/13/25 Thu How can the league not have established the tie breaker process as lately there have only been co-champions? Of course, if head to head is determinative, no tie breaker process is needed unless at least 3 teams tie. Regardless, it will be a mess if there is a 3 way tie with insinuations and suspicion if a process is disclosed/determined after the fact. Remember, Aurich has been following the traditional practice of not running up scores all season. If we get to where point differential matters, things might change.

[> [> [> Subject: Re: 4-way shared title still possible Author: DeepBlue [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 10:21:10 11/13/25 Thu They have: https://ivyleague.com/sports/2025/9/15/general-untitled-sportfile.aspx

[> [> [> [> Subject: Re: 4-way shared title still possible Author: sparman [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 10:27:18 11/13/25 Thu The chance of there still being a tie after applying the various ranking metrics is as close to nonexistent as we will ever see. But it likely dictates running up scores as much as possible.