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Subject: Scoring A Touchdown When Down 14 Points Late Author: An Observer [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ] Date Posted: 19:03:30 10/26/25 Sun We had a very lengthy analysis and debate on this board maybe a year ago about what to do when scoring a touchdown late in a game when you had been down 14 points. The "old" conventional wisdom was to kick the extra point. If you score a potentially tying touchdown later, you can go for two and the win, or kick for the tie and overtime. (Sidebar: If you only need to tie for the outright 1995 Ivy League championship, kick for the tie. But I digress, for GG.) The "new" recommendation, originated solely by mathematicians and stat nerds, is to go for two immediately. If the try is successful and you score another touchdown, you kick for the win. If the first try is unsuccessful, you would need to score another touchdown and go for two *again*, this time for the tie and overtime. Today, the Jets were down 31-16 in the third quarter and then mounted a furious comeback. Down 38-24 late, the Jets scored to make it 38-30 pending the try after touchdown. The Jets of course were 0-7 and had found every single way to screw up on the football field. But give embattled head coach Aaron Glenn credit. As if he were an MIT math major, Glenn immediately opted to go for two. The Jets converted on a play which first was ruled no good, but then overturned upon a Glenn challenge. Then, as the nerds and geeks hoped would happen, the Jets scored another touchdown and kicked for a 39-38 lead. That score held up and the previously 0-7 Jets ended the day 1-7. It's incredible how the math and logic majors have affected sports over the past two decades. The math has been the same since Walter Camp got his counterparts at Princeton to agree to the modern scoring system more than a century ago. But if Glenn had gone for two down 38-30 in 2005, people would have questioned his sanity. Now going for two in that situation is considered if not "smart," at least rational. Math wins. [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

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[> Subject: Re: Scoring A Touchdown When Down 14 Points Late Author: An Observer [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 19:02:10 11/02/25 Sun The Chiefs were down fifteen, 28-13, against the Bills with less than twelve minutes to play. Mahomes converted a miracle 4th-and-17 on the way to a touchdown, making the score 28-19, obviously a deficit of nine. Reid immediately decided to go for two. I wonder what the stats nerds would say about that decision. Part of the calculus needs to be that, if you fail to convert, now the opponent can play both offense *and* defense knowing you need to score twice. Lots of safe running plays on offense, conservative play calling on defense. But Mahomes converted the two-pointer and Reid's decison was vindicated.