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Date Posted: 16:45:42 03/21/04 Sun
Author: yahoo
Subject: 阿扁原罪不脫 台灣穩定難求
In reply to: yahoo 's message, "台灣民主中槍重創" on 04:55:15 03/21/04 Sun

台灣選舉雖然結束,但選前的槍擊、大量的廢票,令今次險勝對手得以連任台灣的總統陳水扁,當選可謂毫不光彩,更導致對手藍營發動群眾包圍總統府要求「翻案」。要是執政當局無法透過獨立專家或司法程序,讓人看到今次選舉得到公正進行,則被指「以茅招當選」將成為陳水扁任內難以洗脫的「原罪」。

四年前國民黨內部分裂,讓阿扁漁人得利當選總統,也有憤怒的群眾包圍台北國民黨總部,把當時的國民黨主席李登輝拉下馬,但沒有質疑選舉結果。

連戰處境不同戈爾

今次萬計群眾包圍總統府,不承認選舉結果,落敗的連戰痛斥選舉「無效」,藍營列出阿扁當選背後的種種疑點,要求澄清。由於雙方得票相差不足三萬,那三十多萬張廢票定性公正與否,以及槍擊案的背後成因,都可能扭轉局勢,國親聯盟必會鍥而不捨追究下去。

三年多前的美國總統選舉,曾因雙方得票緊湊,令落敗的民主黨候選人戈爾透過司法機制要求重點部分州郡選票,擾攘了一段短日子,最後戈爾終以國家團結為重,接納法院裁決,承認布殊當選的結果。

不過,台灣的政治生態和美國不同,一來選舉過程不及美國清廉,增加了質疑的空間,尤其是今次阿扁僅被殺傷力甚弱的改裝子彈打傷,益發令兇手的背景和動機成疑﹔二來政黨力量不如美國均衡,國親兩黨連輸兩屆後,政治資源將大量流失,翻身難度大為增加,尤其是年底又將舉行立法委員選舉,國親兩黨將竭盡所能保壎L們目前在立法院佔有的些微多數議席。透過四面八方的途徑,包括司法機制、群眾運動、輿論宣傳等,出盡法寶釘住阿扁勝之不武的「原罪」,是國親兩黨保嬰菑v政治資源的有效方法之一。

社會分化動搖政局

在這種情況下,藍營未必會輕易放過質疑政敵的機會,阿扁則會盡量迴避,讓選舉結果隨時間過去而變為既成事實,在兩派為了總統寶座鬥爭不絕下,當地社會分化將更嚴重,政局大有持續動盪不安的可能。

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