Re: The case for Balwerdred -- Asmodean's BBS

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Date Posted: 22:12:54 10/04/01 Thu
Author: the silent speaker
Subject: Re: The case for Balwerdred
In reply to: Gonzo the Great 's message, "Re: The case for Balwerdred" on 04:10:37 10/01/01 Mon

>>Asmodean was in the Borderlands. That's one forsaken,
>>short of a full deck. :)
>Do you have any proof at all for this claim? The only
>places that I know of where Asmodean has been spotted
>where the Waste and then with Rand. So, give a quote
>stating that Asmodean was in the Borderlands at any
>time at all.
Ok. He was with a merchant's train composed entirely of Borderlander Darkfriends.
>>He controlled them THROUGH his "protector." Also, the
>>way I figure it as soon as Niall died he decided Valda
>>wasn't worth controlling, he'd be certain to run the
>>Children into the ground, and Balwer ditched
>>them.
>So Demandred overlooked the dangers in a loose cannon
>like the famous spy-master. Impressive, but not very
>convincing.
If Asunawa hadn't gotten to an Omerna already vulnerable by heavy Compulsion, Niall would breathe still. On his own Omerna had hardly been a "loose cannon." And what were the odds that even if somebody was conspiring to assassinate Niall, they would use -- as the assassin, not just fellow conspirator -- just the person who Demandred was toying with? Even if it might occur to Demandred that his own plans might backfire on him, this was a pretty bizarre way for them to.
>>The difference is that Niall could have denied that he
>>had any cards in the first place. There's no reason
>>for news of a spymaster of any kind to leak.
>Are you trying to suggest that people might not have
>known the Children actually [i]had[/i] spies? Can you
>name even one country with a real army in real live
>that you are certain does not have a secret service of
>any kind?
Yes, and how many of them publicly concede their spies' existence?
>>Believing that your side is Right and believing that
>>the dialectic demands its victory are two different
>>things. I would expect the first from a high-ranking
>>Child, but not the second. And Niall certainly
>>believed the first, so what's he saying?
>Most of the Children believed in the inevitable
>victory of the Light. If they didn't, they kept quiet
>about their lack of faith.
Prove this.
>>Guilty of what? Twitching?
>Guilty, just that. We are talking about Whitecloaks,
>remember? You do not need to tell them what you are
>guilty of, they can find out for themselves.
We are talking about Whitecloaks, yes. That means they by definition aren't Darkfriends, remember? Besides, Valda made it plain that he was humiliating Balwer because Balwer irritated him. He didn't make vague accusations.
>>A toughie. Probably, she couldn't have the Seanchan
>>convincingly bypass the WCs, so she and Demandred
>>arranged for them to be "taken" but their core to get
>>away.
>Did their core get away? It seemed to me that they had
>had some very heavy losses.
I'm pretty sure they did get away.
>>He's worried about reports in the middle of the woods,
>>and at a time like this? At the least it is more
>>suspicious behavior.
>He has spent a long time doing nothing but gather
>reports and give orders based on those reports. Why
>should he stop when it becomes interesting?
Because his whole camp was preparing for a massive campaign. He had to be ready to move, not go off half-cocked. Particularly as he hasn't gotten around to telling Perrin what he used to do. If he has been acting as you say, Balwer's got some 'splaining to do.
>>True, but now try convincing Mesaana that she isn't
>>next. Worse, Demandred might not actually join the
>>body count... try convincing him. Anyway, Semirhage
>>and Demandred (and Mesaana) have that little alliance
>>thingy. Semirhage won't go after Demandred in
>>earnest.
>There is a difference between going after him in
>earnest, and getting him killed because he was too
>stupid to Travel away from a lost battle. Semirhage
>might have understood this.
Destroying his power base (rather than bruising it a little for show) counts as going after him in earnest. And she would have been more worried that he might live than that he might die.
>>How much time does Balwer actually spend with the AS?
>>Anyway, I'm not especially worried about this point
>>until someone comes up with a possibility who doesn't
>>get as KOd by this as Balwer.
>Balwer would observe them. He is supposed to be a very
>good observer, remember? And my suggestion is that
>Demandred is posing as an Aiel that hasn't seen any AS
>apart from maybe Egwene and Elayne.
An Aiel, huh? That might work, but who? And how would he manage to not be forced by ji'e'toh to die hundreds of times by now? Rand has been openly trying to learn and still doesn't get it. Demandred wouldn't notice if he horrified all the Aiel, but rest assured the other Aiel would notice.
Perrin is not having his people memorize each other's faces. It's perfectly plausible that Balwer knows only that his new lord has a couple of Aes Sedai working for him, but hasn't been working too closely with them.
>>Maybe that's why Perrin hasn't shown much sign of
>>Compulsion. And don't forget, at the moment he's
>>trying to get behind-the-scenes power again -- he
>>doesn't need large-scale Power use. Even Compulsion he
>>can still use, as long as he doesn't draw too much or
>>use it when an Asha'man is looking. That shouldn't be
>>all that hard, and what else does he have to do? P.S.
>>Halima may not have channeled until after Logain left
>>but she was certainly willing to stay there before.
>Halima's willingness may have had something to do with
>direct orders from Shadar Haran. I am not sure that he
>would have understood if Halima had left because of a
>captive that the AS were going to gentle again.
I withdraw the P.S., but the bit about not channeling not being too severe a drawback -- and not totally restricting; we all know that Demandred is a gambler -- still stands.
If you don't like it, don't worry, I have a Gonzodred theory waiting in the wings. Coming soon to a theoryland near you.

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Replies:

Finishing touches -- Gonzo the Great, 02:29:55 10/05/01 Fri
- Re: Finishing touches -- the silent speaker, 01:19:14 10/07/01 Sun
  - Re: Finishing touches -- Gonzo the Great, 02:41:30 10/08/01 Mon