Discussion sbre las ondas de el NWS San Juan -- The_Cycloman

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Date Posted: 07:26:44 08/13/04 Fri
Author: Luis Martinez (Cycloneye)
Subject: Discussion sbre las ondas de el NWS San Juan

600 am ast fri aug 13 2004

. discussion...
low to middle level trough has moved westward into the local area
overnight to bring numerous showers and widely scattered
thunderstorms to the region ... with deepest convection continuing to
fire off the w and nw coast of pr ... ahead of trough axis and
possibly along a deep layer moisture discontinuity. cell motion
has veered from ene this past evening now to a more wnw motion as
indicated by both stlt imagery and doppler radar. abundant moisture
will move across the local area through this afternoon and evening
for a continuation of this pattern and local weather may thus be
dominated by advection and limited diurnal effects. models begin a
clearing trend tonight as the trough moves on to the wnw ... with next
ill defined tropical wave estimated along 55 west expected to move
across the region saturday night through sunday ... with main moisture
convergence forecast to pass south of the local islands. beyond
sunday ... the local weather is contingent on organizing tropical wave
along 41 west this morning. this wave looking better with time ... and
global models suggest there is potential for tropical development
with this system during the several days. latest gfs moves a high
amplitude surface trough across the local area early tuesday ... with
a similar low level presentation as was forecast for t. d. two which
later became bonnie. nhc is currently running guidance on this
wave ... and we will continue to monitor this closely next few days.
the following wave which has exited africa during the past 36 hours
could very well become a tropical depression or storm in the next 24
hours ... and global models also like this system. many models pull
this developed wave to the wnw then nw and into the central
atlantic ... but ... the trend over the past few days has been farther
and farther west before pulling nw. this too will be monitored.

with three tropical systems developing already this month ... and
potentially two more during the next few days ... it goes without
saying that the season could become very active as we approach the
peak of the season. local interests are strongly urged to revisit
your hurricane mitigation plans ... and keep abreast of weather
conditions and forecasts on a daily basis.

Parece que tendremos una proxima semana activa.

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Replies:

Re: Discussion sbre las ondas de el NWS San Juan -- Ola, 08:02:29 08/13/04 Fri