Discusion de la depresion NHC -- The_Cycloman

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Date Posted: 11:02:52 08/13/04 Fri
Author: The_Cycloman_PR
Subject: Discusion de la depresion NHC
In reply to: The_Cycloman_PR 's message, "Forecast advisory #1 TD#4" on 10:48:46 08/13/04 Fri

Se pronostica el desarrollo de una vaguada que debilitara el alta presion de Azores forzando un movimiento mas hacia el norte del sistema dentro de los proximos dias, pero la vaguada tambien esta pronosticada a debilitarse y desplazarse hacie el norte lo que permitiria el alta presion fortalecerse nuevamente y el sistema debera recurbar rapidamente al oeste...Tambien dicen que al subir un poco pasaria sobre aguas mas frias que limitaran un poco su fortalecimiento pero si el ciclon permanece en bajas latitudes entonces podria ser huracan en 72 horas...

***ESTA DISCUSION ES LA 1RA Y ES MUY PRELIMINAR TODAVIA...SUGIERO OBSERVAR DETENIDAMENTE ESTE CICLON POR LOS PROXIMOS 2-4 DIAS PARA TENER IDEAS MAS CLARAS SOBRE SU FUTURO COMPORTAMIENTO Y TRAYECTORIAS. CYCLOMAN***

Discusion...

WTNT44 KNHC 131447
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 240 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR BASED ON A
CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0...OR 30 KT...
FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. LOCATING THE EXACT CENTER IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO CONTINUED REORGANIZATION OF THE
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY
THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO NORTH. BY 48 HOURS...ALL THE GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN
35-40W LONGITUDE...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A
SMALL POLEWARD STAIR-STEP IN THE TRACK MAY OCCUR AT THAT TIME...
AFTER WHICH A RETURN TO A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH OF THE WARMEST WATER IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO PLACE
THE SYSTEM DEEPER INTO THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW
THAT EXISTS EAST OF 50W LONGITUDE. AS SUCH...ONLY MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND STAYS
OVER WARMER WATER...THEN IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 12.2N 22.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 12.4N 24.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 12.8N 27.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 13.3N 29.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 14.0N 32.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 15.5N 36.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 16.5N 41.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 17.0N 46.5W 60 KT

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