Discusion de la Dep #5 -- The_Cycloman

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Saturday, March 15, 05:22:51am [ Login ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 1 ]

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Date Posted: 22:52:21 08/13/04 Fri
Author: The_Cycloman_PR
Subject: Discusion de la Dep #5
In reply to: The_Cycloman_PR 's message, "Depresion tropical #5 boletin de las 11pm" on 22:34:10 08/13/04 Fri

Ajustaron la trayectoria de los modelos mas a la derecha y ahora pasa un poco mas cerca de PR...Como dije antes estos "model plots" o proyecciones de trayectoria cambian con cada boletin. No duden que vuelvan a cambiar en el proximo boletin. HAY QUE MONITOREARLA BIEN DE CERCA DURANTE EL FIN DE SEMANA. Bajaron los vientos en el ultimo boletin de 35 mph a 30mph pero esto debe ser temporal y se espera que el sistema se desarrolle a tromenta tropical tal vez manana. Sistemas como este que estan en bajas latitudes y se proyectan a pasar al sur de Puerto Rico se deben observar de cerca por que si deciden subir cuando llegan a las islas, tienden a acercarse peligrosamente a la isla...OJO.

Vean al final de la discusion los plots de trayectoria.

WTNT45 KNHC 140235
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z...AS WELL AS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...SUGGEST
THAT THE WINDS ARE PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED.
NEVERTHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS A GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND...OTHER
THAN THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION...ALL FACTORS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING. BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE BRING THE
DEPRESSION TO ABOUT 90 KT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. I HAVE ELECTED
TO GO A LITTLE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE BASED ON THE POOR SATELLITE AND
QUIKSCAT PRESENTATION AND THE RAPID INITIAL MOTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18. THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS THEREFORE
INDICATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LARGELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL.

WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
EARLY SATURDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 9.4N 48.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 10.0N 51.0W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 11.0N 54.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 12.1N 58.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 13.2N 61.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 15.0N 67.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 17.0N 73.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 20.0N 78.5W 80 KT

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Replies:

Grafica de proyeciones de la depresion #5 -- The_Cycloman_PR, 23:07:31 08/13/04 Fri