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Date Posted: 04:48:36am 12/21/05 Wed,
Author: JCM
Subject: Maac OOC and RPI

Manhatten won again tonight bringing the Maac OOC record to 25-29. Here's what's left on tap this week.

Wednesday, Dec. 21
St. Bonaventure @ Marist 7:30 pm
Niagara @ Notre Dame 7:30 pm
Thursday, Dec. 22
Boston University @ Canisius 2:00 pm
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Peter's [Sirius Ch. 125] 7:00 pm
Friday, Dec. 23
Iona vs Kentucky (@ Louisville, Ky.) 7:00 pm
Loyola @ Virginia 7:00 pm
Fordham @ Manhattan 7:00 pm
Siena @ Massachusetts 7:00 pm

If the Maac could have a few upsets this week this will be the highest conference RPI for the league in many years (No thanks to Fairfield).

I imagine after this week the Maac's final conference RPI will nearly be set as the OCC schedule is pretty much complete except for the brackbuster weekend. If Iona wins Friday it will also be very good for the conference as they will surely continue to get top 25 votes

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Replies:

[> Stags Sagarin ranking down in the 270s -- Menzies, 06:47:46am 12/21/05 Wed, [1]

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[> MAAC has 2nd best SOS in Division I -- JoeStag, 08:35:00am 12/21/05 Wed, [1]

Here is the ranking of all the leagues. MAAC at 13, but the RPI is a lot closer to #10 Atlantic-10, than it is to the leagues below them. The amazing thing is that the MAAC has the 2nd toughest SOS in Division I...... being only 4 games below .500 with that schedule is what's doing it.
Most Major conferences play a very weak OOC (and mostly home games), and their teams go something like 8-2 in OOC and only have to play .500 in the league to get an at large bid..... what a like of a High Major.

Rank Conference W L Pct RPI SOS RPI
1 Big Ten 79 22 0.7822 0.5943 0.5317 0.5943
2 Big East 100 34 0.7463 0.5775 0.5213 0.5775
3 Missouri Valley 54 20 0.7297 0.5695 0.5161 0.5695
4 ACC 77 19 0.8021 0.5638 0.4843 0.5695
5 SEC 82 23 0.7810 0.5627 0.4900 0.5627
6 Big 12 69 26 0.7263 0.5483 0.4889 0.5483
7 Pac-10 57 24 0.7037 0.5327 0.4757 0.5327
8 Colonial 46 30 0.6053 0.5171 0.4877 0.5229
9 WAC 37 34 0.5211 0.5192 0.5185 0.5204
10 Atlantic 10 69 44 0.6106 0.5195 0.4892 0.5195
11 Mid-American 38 36 0.5135 0.5196 0.5217 0.5190
12 Mountain West 47 29 0.6184 0.5170 0.4832 0.5170
13 Metro Atlantic 25 29 0.4630 0.5171 0.5352 0.5132
14 West Coast 33 39 0.4583 0.5038 0.5189 0.5038
15 Horizon 32 37 0.4638 0.4993 0.5111 0.4972
16 Sun Belt 37 47 0.4405 0.4943 0.5122 0.4943
17 Patriot 29 40 0.4203 0.4839 0.5050 0.4839
18 Conference USA 45 45 0.5000 0.4777 0.4703 0.4777
19 Big Sky 32 34 0.4848 0.4682 0.4627 0.4682
20 Southland 24 47 0.3380 0.4668 0.5098 0.4668
21 Southern 27 54 0.3333 0.4674 0.5122 0.4664
22 Ivy 31 36 0.4627 0.4656 0.4666 0.4656
23 Northeast 29 46 0.3867 0.4645 0.4904 0.4642
24 Big West 20 35 0.3636 0.4583 0.4899 0.4583
25 Ohio Valley 12 29 0.2927 0.4734 0.5336 0.4521
26 Big South 21 35 0.3750 0.4520 0.4777 0.4520
27 America East 17 49 0.2576 0.4606 0.5282 0.4470
28 SWAC 7 57 0.1094 0.4433 0.5546 0.4433
29 Mid-Continent 20 50 0.2857 0.4367 0.4871 0.4367
30 Mid-Eastern 13 71 0.1548 0.4385 0.5331 0.4321
31 Atlantic Sun 14 42 0.2500 0.4291 0.4889 0.4116

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[> [> Re: MAAC has 2nd best SOS in Division I -- Stagophile, 09:17:42am 12/21/05 Wed, [1]

I just don't get how the Colonial Athletic Conference is rated that high. Their highest profile wins were ODU over a terrible Depaul team, Hofstra over any mid-major can beat us St. John's and UNC-Wilmington over Big Ten bottom-dweller Northwestern. And the top team in the CAA, Northeastern, just got pummeled by Providence yesterday. I hope the MAAC manages to pass the CAA. That way the MAAC would solidify its place as the premiere Mid-Major conference on the East Coast.

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[> [> [> Re: MAAC has 2nd best SOS in Division I -- JoeStag, 10:00:54am 12/21/05 Wed, [1]

If I understand the computer formula, as the season moves into conference play, then High Majors will tend to rise in the ratings, meaning that our strong SOS will beneifit us, and hurt the Colonial's weaker OOC. In addition I think the Colonial has 8+ teams in the Bracket Buster, and I would not be surprised if we see many MAAV vs Colonial matchups in BB. So there is still opportunity to pass them. But we have to do our job and beat Cal State and BB.

BTW, Northeastern lost to Providence by 22, but beat Cal State Northridge by 21, so we might have a decent shot of beating Cal State who is ranked 132, is 5-3 and they beat USC at USC..

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[> Re: Maac OOC and RPI -- GuyF, 11:28:35am 12/21/05 Wed, [1]

Got news for you: if Iona somehow, some way, finds a way to beat Kentucky on Friday, they'll be nationally ranked, never mind votes.

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[> [> Re: Maac OOC and RPI -- SonofDoc, 04:41:09pm 12/21/05 Wed, [1]

If Iona does knock off Kentucky, and I hope they do, do you think Iona would receive more top 25 votes next week than Kentucky?

I hope we find out.

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[> Re: Maac OOC and RPI -- JCM, 12:29:38pm 12/21/05 Wed, [1]

They'd get my vote but a school from the Maac receiving a top 25 ranking is never a sure thing even if they beat a number one team in the country.

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[> [> Yes, but... -- GuyF, 09:00:30pm 12/21/05 Wed, [1]

This would be the second win for the Gaels over a top 25 team this season, with both coming on the road. The credentials are unheard of. You can't tell me that an 8-0 Iona team that has two wins over top 25 teams on the road and has played just two home games isn't going to be ranked.

As SonofDoc said, I hope we get to find out who's right about this!

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[> [> [> Guy - I hope you are right -- JCM, 09:20:42pm 12/21/05 Wed, [1]

Guy, I hope you are right. I could argue that Iona should be ranked now. They have a win on the road over a top 25 team that is ahead of them in the rankings. They are undefeated. Why then isn't Iona ranked? For the same reason I fear Iona may not be ranked if they win Friday. Basketball snobs do the voting and politics play a huge role. Lets hope common sense overcomes basketball snobbery and politics and Iona gets what they deserve should they win......

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[> [> [> [> Re: Guy - I hope you are right -- Running Man, 09:53:05pm 12/21/05 Wed, [1]

Look at what happened to Fairfield's Mens Soccer team. Ranked 20th in the nation and could not get a bid to the NCAA Tourney. It's the MAAC, gentlemen. It's the MAAC!

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[> [> [> [> [> Re: Guy - I hope you are right -- AlwaysAStagFan, 09:59:08pm 12/21/05 Wed, [1]

the common thread that has been enunciated repeatedly is that the MAAC is not a "good league".....what does that mean???....certainly, the outsiders view it as "inferior" but also the inherent quality is....what....good...ok...not too good??? Iona is doing well now but a lot has to be provem...also....WHO cares at this early stage of the season?....are we so obsessive/compulsive that Dec ratings mean a darn?????...keep winning against all teams and the rankings will come and mean something....otherwise....forgetaboutit!!!

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Re: Guy - I hope you are right -- JoeStag, 07:58:25am 12/22/05 Thu, [1]

Iona's credentials are that they beat a top 25 Iowa State team, and did it on the road in convincing fashion. They also have won 3 away games which is always impressive. But I think Iowa state is the only team that Iona beat that has a winning record, so I think Iona has to beat more than one winning team before they will get serious attention for Top 25. The next 3 games are against winning teams...... Kentucky, Seton Hall and Fresno State.

If they beat Kentucky, they almost assuredly would be in Top 25.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Re: Guy - I hope you are right -- GuyF, 01:40:02pm 12/22/05 Thu, [1]

I will challenge your comment re beating teams with better than .500 records. In the eyes of the committee, the RPI is just so much more important, and Iona has 4 wins vs top 100 teams and a fifth vs a top 130 team. I think the committee is more impressed with a team that's 0-3 but played OK vs Duke, Texas and UConn than a team that's 3-0 with wins over Morgan State, Prairie View and Howard.

We will learn more about Iona in these next 4 games (all against top 100 teams). Again, 3 of those 4 are on the road (Kentucky, Seton Hall, Fresno State), so even going 1-2 in these games wouldn't kill us, as long as we then come home and beat Manhattan. But yes, we need to beat Kentucky to be ranked.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> I think you DO have to care about what the computers and rankings are saying right now. -- GuyF, 01:34:26pm 12/22/05 Thu, [1]

And what they are saying is that the MAAC is having its best season in years in OOC play. Think about this: the league will likely finish 10 places--TEN places!--higher in terms of RPI/Sagarin ratings than a year ago. This means a lot in terms of where the MAAC champ is seeded in the NCAAs and if/how many MAAC teams get into the NIT.

The thing is that the ratings won't drop off much when we start playing each other, as OOC play is nearly over for many MAAC teams. Unless the MAAC teams bomb out in the remainder of the OOC, the league will likely say roughly where it is, or at the least stay in the top 15. This hasn't happened in like 10 years, I think, and it's a far cry from the past couple years. Big difference in the eyes of the NCAA (and NIT) when you're the champ of the, say, 12th best conference as opposed to the 22nd best conference.

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[> [> [> [> [> Re: Guy - I hope you are right -- GuyF, 01:30:09pm 12/22/05 Thu, [1]

You can't compare soccer and basketball--far different levels of media attention. People on the west coast likely knew zippo about Fairfield soccer. People on the west coast likely know about Iona hoops, because every day there's something in the media about them. (Note: this is not an exaggeration; I subscribe to a media service.)

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