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Date Posted: 00:22:08 10/23/01 Tue
Author: 蠢人
Subject: 對後市的看法

在911事件發生時,初時本人以為事件的策劃人會承勢襲擊美國的金融體系,,但經過一個多月的觀察,,發現這個想法已不成立,因美資大戶已完全控制了局勢,,亦即是說今次911只是虎頭蛇尾的襲擊,,既然大戶的整體造市手法沒有改變,因此本人亦想作出小小的預測,,首先本人依然認為大市尚未擺脫熊市,,911事件後港股自8894反彈至10638到頂,再跌至9758,再次回升到今天的10085,最近市況雖然反覆,但相信今次真正浪頂還未出現,,浪頂應會在11000附近,而港股在這個浪頂出現後會出現一個大調整,這個調整亦會在半年內出現(明確日期不便指出),,有人相信日圓會跌破130嗎?(現在122),,若不相信就等著看吧,,,今次推跌大市的藉口不會再用911事件,,因為這消息已過氣,,最大機會有可能再次用國際炒家衝擊聯系匯率或經濟大衰退等,,至於港股會跌至哪裡,本人的目標是跌破8000點(haha),,,預測歸預測,仍然有錯的機會,若錯了希望各位大哥不要見怪,哈,本人經常認為只有大擔預測才能進步,有人可能見到呢篇野後會覺得天方夜譚,但過了半年在話我錯都未遲啊,,同埋我係到留言係貪呢度人氣少(請網主勿見怪),所以希望不要把呢篇留言轉載到其他網站吧,有緣看到的朋友亦不需要通知其他朋友,,謝謝,,,^___^,,,,,,

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Replies:

[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 04:23:43 11/26/01 Mon

haha, I am a lucky guy cos I see this mail!
I think the drop will start in early Dec. What do you think?
Hope I am lucky enough to see your opinion again!!!

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 04:26:14 11/26/01 Mon

test

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 03:08:56 12/10/01 Mon

haha...日圓跌穿126了,我在10月時都係覺得日圓跌穿126個市就見頂(原因不便說明),現在跌穿了,所以差不多可以肯定12000已是頂部,如果d大戶死頂個市出輪,個市頂多可以去到今月尾至下月初,,有貨就係今個月好沽,,,,,,,

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 20:56:50 12/20/01 Thu

曰圓急跌,阿限挺金融危機,整個淡勢已形成,阿限挺和香港一樣用聯系匯率,下一步有可能會吹國際炒家衝擊聯匯,如果真的用這個題才,拆息將會高企,

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 21:02:03 12/20/01 Thu

日圓現價129.3..haha,,很快所有貨幣都換價美圓,,,

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 04:21:39 12/21/01 Fri

"很快所有貨幣都換價美圓"
請問呢句點解呀?

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 08:43:01 12/21/01 Fri

haha,,,好似打錯字,,即是說除美元外的大多數貨幣都將會出現沽壓,尤其是亞洲貨幣,現在熱錢四圍流,但情況去到最壞時資金最後會流入美國,,,haha,,,,

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 18:27:17 12/26/01 Wed

haha..日元131.4...估唔到跌得咁快咁急,比我想像中快,現在跌破130日元,,,10月份所作的預測已講中了一半,,當然日元還有得跌,但跌到哪裡就唔講lu,講得太多反而會唔準,,,,

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 06:07:32 12/27/01 Thu

大型頭肩頂/底 ?

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 08:50:31 12/27/01 Thu

肯定唔係底啦,,仲有排跌,,,

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 08:40:42 01/11/02 Fri

今次係2浪下跌 (去到 ~10000) 定抑或係大跌浪 (去到~8000)呢?

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 19:21:05 01/12/02 Sat

HAHA.我並非圖表派,圖表只是我其中一個指標,所以你問我波浪理論我唔可以清楚答到你,,不過短線來說.咁快估去到10000好似唔多實際,,個市跌到10500通常都會有一次反彈,之後上破唔返11000先估10000都未遲,,現在d大戶短線想玩乜仲未清楚,本來諗住佢地上個月尾可以出哂d新輪,點知俾證監拖一拖,到今月尾都唔知出唔出到d輪,到佢地出完d輪後,個趨勢可能會明朗d,,,,,

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 03:08:48 01/14/02 Mon

見個市悶悶地,,不如再作一次大膽預測,,haha,,我上年11月頭在醒目網曾經說過941中移動唔係好野,收場會和北京控股一樣,長線必死,到現在仍沒有改變此看法,如沒有估錯,今次跌浪941會跌破10元(現價24.75),haha,如果唔信又睇下點,haha,,個市到時係點大家都估到,無謂多說,,,^__^

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[> [> 想請教一下 -- 懵人, 16:37:27 01/14/02 Mon

請問你認為在今次大跌市中, 那些股可以搏大反彈呢?
另外, 我手上有857, $1.34 入, 請教是否全數沽出較為上算呢?

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[> [> [> Re: 想請教一下 -- 蠢人, 20:53:47 01/14/02 Mon

haha...我通常只會預測大市去向,從來不會勸人買/賣某隻股票,不過都可以俾d意見,雖然肯定恆指行下跌浪,國內股市又大跌,但香港國企方面還未見有大跌跡象,當然恆指下跌都會拖慮國企,但下調幅度未必有恆指般大,如無膽我都唔會阻止你先獲利,如搏佢逆市造好的話就把止蝕位定在1.35吧,自己決定,蝕佐唔關我事,,,haha

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 05:41:01 01/15/02 Tue

941自拆細後我都估會陰跌,但比我想像中耐,可能仲有d用,因市值大,要黎挾倉。
其實當初我都好奇怪恆指點解會納入聯通,因為自二千年科網股爆煲後科技股價一直長期下跌,咁樣恆指想升都難。我估計恆指將來要換入另外一些大市值股份至有得大升,但都唔知會係幾時既事o羅。
你點睇呢?
(唉,打中文真咿R)

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 20:19:06 01/15/02 Tue

HAHA...大戶在炒上941時就我諗一早就佈署好怎樣散貨,中移動市值咁大,街貨又多,如果好似舊時股災咁一日跌千幾二千點,都嚇到d人雞飛狗走,佢地d貨都出唔哂,不如同你地鬥耐性,慢慢逐級跌,又可配合返政府出售官股,佢地個價又可以沽返好d,而最重要既係令你地d散戶身處股災而不自知(呢句野我係一年前醒目網都講過),不斷係呢d市撈貨,損失肯定比以前任何一次股災多,,,至於恆指將來會否換返d大市值股份,可以話肯定會,之後都唔會再用941帶頭炒上個市,因為高位蟹貨多,電訊概念過氣,而要納入恆指都係一d有穩定盈利的企業,最好是營業額幾十億至過百億的高增長行業,呢d行業在香港都很難找到,所以都應該是國內企業居多,尤其是要留意近兩年上市的新股,我手上的資料有限,如果你日後發現到就post上來俾我參考下吧,,haha

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[> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- Titanium, 21:43:24 01/15/02 Tue

May Be 857 and 945

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[> [> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 19:15:58 01/17/02 Thu

呢兩隻股都幾好,但857是能源股,如納入恆指做火車頭好像唔夠號召力,而且油價將會很波動(有向下趨勢),中國入世淮許進口石油,所以做成盈利不穩定,故呢隻機會率較細,而945我都幾睇好,見佢在大跌市都企得咁堅挺,真的不容小虧,但可惜該股升幅太大(兩年內升了近三倍),之間又沒有做過太多調整,所以我諗要整固一段時間,至於會否成為恆指數成份股,機會是有,但要像中國移動般成為主力火車頭就難d lu,,,因為欠缺概念,,若說錯了不要見怪..^___^

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[> [> [> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- Titanium, 15:24:34 01/19/02 Sat

有2點我想補充: (1) 中國政府在多次政策調整中表明要(a)維護重工業及燃油市場價格 而 (b) 對於通訊業則持相反態度--儘量使消費者得到最大利益,即是低價格. 而觀乎國企及國內股票市場, 似乎真正的龍頭股尚未形成. (2) 石油業(上游)是眾工業之母, 而且石油是不能再生的產品, 現時價格偏低是由於(a)需求向下及眾出口國大多是窮國家而不顧價格傾銷所致 (b)開採成本低,技術成熟.
不過我想請教, 由20廿紀至今, 石油不斷開採, 請問尚可維持多久呢?

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 10:25:18 01/20/02 Sun

HAHA...石油可以維持多久,呢d野我都唔係咁熟,我諗要問專家先解答到,,不過現在全世界都察覺到呢個問題啦,,將來亦會越來越多人用,太陽能,風能,天然氣等能源或發現其他另類能源,,所以呢d野我唔係太關心,,

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 07:02:26 02/07/02 Thu

1月30日在0.68入佐90x7,,2月6日0.415入了9x33,希望有運行,,haha,,雖然有點馬後炮,但隻輪未升,真係唔敢太揚,,haha,,,

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 04:47:02 02/08/02 Fri

請問點解唔直接沽期指呢?

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 08:34:10 02/08/02 Fri

哈,,因為我覺得買輪勝算大過期指,,有朋友覺得買輪搵笨,風險極大,到期後九成變廢紙(如fai哥),,呢點我都認同,但本人估的是一個中期趨勢,並不是短線(一兩天),如要沽期指沽足一個月,我的資本可能承受不了這一個月內出現的短線波動(如被人一挾便要急於平倉),買輪就唔同,只要個勢估0岩佐,話之佢期間挾高幾百點,都唔駛理佢,贏面相對大好多,要獲利只要0岩價就可以沽,洗鬼理佢到期變唔變廢紙,當然買輪要顧埋時間值,但依家d新輪0岩0岩出,我覺得只要在10以下的溢價都算合理,所以現在我唯一的輸面就是個勢估錯佐,但如果個勢無估錯,我隻輪起馬升一倍,,,利潤肯定高過炒期指,,,haha

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 05:53:37 02/11/02 Mon

祝 萬事如意,心想事成!!

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 23:03:48 02/12/02 Tue

祝 馬年行好運,財運亨通!!

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 08:13:05 02/16/02 Sat

10:13 16-FEB-2002
和黃指《亞洲華爾街日報》評論文章將美國Enron與集團相提並論是無理取鬧...
haha...呢單野突然咁吹,動機已很明顯,一間美國公司一間香港公司,本來就九唔搭八,咁都可以拉埋一齊講,大戶用乜借口推跌大市,畫公仔都唔駛畫出腸,,,,haha

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 08:24:27 02/16/02 Sat

10:13 16-FEB-2002
和黃指《亞洲華爾街日報》評論文章將美國Enron與集團相提並論是無理取鬧...
haha...呢單野突然咁吹,動機已很明顯,一間美國公司一間香港公司,本來就九唔搭八,咁都可以拉埋一齊講,大戶用乜借口推跌大市,畫公仔都唔駛畫出腸,,,,haha

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 01:17:41 03/07/02 Thu

吹脹,本來諗住3月勁跌,點知個市在造底,看來真係要看里昂個風水指數玩,,,

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- Denon, 02:40:55 03/07/02 Thu

What About 昂個風水指數 told us ? I forgot. What months should be bad ?But I remember there are 2 months good only...

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 01:30:39 03/07/02 Thu

吹脹,本來諗住3月勁跌,點知個市在造底,看來真係要看里昂個風水指數玩,,,

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 05:08:32 03/07/02 Thu

哈哈,是否掉轉黎玩?
Anyway,請問你後市點睇,是否轉好?
呢幾日大成交裂口上升,我都要轉好啦... :(

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[> [> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 06:05:33 03/07/02 Thu

haha,,,成個底部都做佐出黎,想唔轉好都唔得,初時個市都未急跌d報紙就係咁唱淡都覺得有d唔對路,點知好既唔靈醜既靈,haha,,不過今次大戶突然做好,真係睇到d野,,底部在2月出現,即下一個底部有可能和里昂風水指數推測時間的一樣,,12000仍然是重要阻力位,今次反彈一定破唔到,因為一破12000就是牛市來臨,,hahaha,,

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[> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 02:37:52 03/08/02 Fri

蝦,個市仲會唔會回一回黎比人入貨呢?

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[> [> [> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 05:00:49 03/08/02 Fri

回就當然會啦,雖然短線睇好,但我還未相信是牛市來臨,10月份所作的預測仍然有效,2個月內可能掉進另一個跌浪,而這個跌浪會跌至那裡,要看到時情況而定,但仍然現在仍維持原來的8000點,,,haha

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 12:17:07 03/09/02 Sat

索羅斯舊部唱淡港元 美電急升,,,,
呢單野正好反映佐大戶的取向,最近美股勁升,日股跟足,而港股遠遠落後,外圍轉好,唯獨港股唔多好,因為香港採取聯匯,沒有調節經濟的自主性和靈活性(呢d當然只係大戶推淋大市的說法,未必係事實,,haha),,外圍話哂俾所有人知經濟好轉和復甦,港股股價反而維持在低位俾人買,個市真係有d蠱惑,現在亦凝造了一個日股好過港股的形勢,亦即是說,將來一出現跌市,港股一定是跌得最甘果個,,,haha

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 07:58:15 03/26/02 Tue

to Stock4hk:
唔駛客氣,此網站的確有其可取之處,就係夠哂簡潔,我每次做留言都會print返d留言出黎,檢討自己的命中率,方便做記錄,所以呢個網站0岩哂,(無咁多無謂野,慳返好多紙,,haha,,講笑),,其他醒目網和faifai個網都很好,我都間唔中有去昅下,但佢地現在用會員制,而且人氣太強,所以為免麻煩,呢度就更加0岩我,,,haha

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- Stock4hk, 09:28:22 03/22/02 Fri

蠢人兄, 多謝一路支持本網

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 02:36:24 03/25/02 Mon

好悶呀,大牛皮 ...
不過 d Yen 又跌過啦,四月會點呢?

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 08:29:48 03/26/02 Tue

哈,,點解段留言走佐上面兩格,,

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 08:47:49 03/26/02 Tue

本人覺得個市應該夾到11500才跌先最完美(現在10786),,haha,如果你問我點解咁講,(航)貨d答,就係靠直覺,若用陰謀論解釋就係日本3月底清關,個市升到3月底就大把報紙企出黎唱日本資金徹走(唔好話我批死佢地),淡友九成都在11000點做淡,之後就被夾至體無完膚,haha,,呢d都係我d吹水理論,唔好信,我一向講野都係有前無後,諗到乜就講乜,所以唔駛質疑我既講法,,haha

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 01:39:35 07/26/02 Fri

跌穿10000都預佐啦,可能個市去到8000先令我奮興d,本來諗住到個市差不多到底時撈d仙股玩下,,點知港x所實施埋d乜野白痴"除牌"機制,乜野低於0.5三十日就除牌,如果要維持0.5就一係要個莊頂住個價或炒高(市況唔好邊個會做?炒高佐又話要調查),一係就x合一(市況唔好合完又跌過,即係搵小股東笨),,而且舊時升得最勁都係仙股,市況好時幾仙炒上幾毫大有人在,但如要0.5炒上幾元就相對少好多,,股價高低係由市場決定,人為干預一定係錯,如果佢話隻股年年蝕錢,要佢除牌都合情合理d,,,,就算一隻年年有盈利既股票,唔入流無人買就唔會升,可能仲會逆市下跌,所以話維持0.5跟本就係白痴先會諗到出來既野,對上市公司的質素改善根本一d幫助都無,,,

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[> 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 06:24:51 05/02/02 Thu

haha,,今次夾淡倉居然挾得咁勁,,真的超乎想像,,但去到下星期好友就要小心lu,,,haha

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 08:16:05 07/24/02 Wed

終於都穿 10000 lu!

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[> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 01:55:21 07/26/02 Fri

跌穿10000都預佐啦,可能個市去到8000先令我奮興d,本來諗住到個市差不多到底時撈d仙股玩下,,點知港x所實施埋d乜野白痴"除牌"機制,乜野低於0.5三十日就除牌,如果要維持0.5就一係要個莊頂住個價或炒高(市況唔好邊個會做?炒高佐又話要調查),一係就x合一(市況唔好合完又跌過,即係搵小股東笨),,而且舊時升得最勁都係仙股,市況好時幾仙炒上幾毫大有人在,但如要0.5炒上幾元就相對少好多,,股價高低係由市場決定,人為干預一定係錯,如果佢話隻股年年蝕錢,要佢除牌都合情合理d,,,,就算一隻年年有盈利既股票,唔入流無人買就唔會升,可能仲會逆市下跌,所以話維持0.5跟本就係白痴先會諗到出來既野,對上市公司的質素改善根本一d幫助都無,,,

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 04:36:24 09/18/02 Wed

向 911 低位進發!
若果真係去到,之後仲有冇得跌呢?

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 09:31:15 09/19/02 Thu

自上年10月份作出預測已經說了很多次,最完美是跌破8000才見底,如果個市牛皮下跌(即慢跌)去到9000,呢個就一定不是底部,之後會在9000反覆一輪,到美國突然傳出突襲伊拉克的消息(打硬,唔好話我批死美國佬),個市就分分鐘單日跌700-1000,,插破8000見底,(呢d只係個人愚見,呢度講呢度散,唔好揚咁開),

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[> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 10:14:48 09/20/02 Fri

個市係 ~9400 四底而破,應該起碼跌多一千幾百點,所以我估十月係跌市。
不過下星期唔知會唔會殺窩輪 (9205),所以我今日都平左 d 沽先,睇o下下星期點結算。

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[> [> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 22:49:15 09/21/02 Sat

平佐d沽都0岩,如無估錯,應該會在9000附近出哂d盈富先再跌,,月尾應會有反彈..

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 20:50:28 10/06/02 Sun

信唔信格老今個月內(10月)會突然宣佈減息? 唔信又睇下點...haha

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 03:44:05 10/09/02 Wed

嘻,減息後一頭半個月有可能係沽空良機!

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[> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 10:33:44 10/09/02 Wed

或者喇,,美國佬遲遲唔打伊拉克,一日唔打都唔敢話佢會大升,,,

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 09:50:40 10/25/02 Fri

唉,,估錯佐tim, 本來諗住美國佬會10月突襲伊拉克搞跌美股, 之後聯儲局減息, 睇黎又要推遲lu....

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 07:30:42 10/27/02 Sun

其實冇乜分別,個市都係升左,睇黎今次有可能頂到年底 ...

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 04:51:16 10/28/02 Mon

睇個勢就似有排玩, 但如果個市真係頂到年尾, 就好難睇,,,..

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 05:46:03 12/23/02 Mon

哈哈,祝各位 Merry Christmas & Happy New year

個人意見,出年都係瓜多過菜 lu ... >.<

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 22:06:05 12/23/02 Mon

Merry Christmas & Happy New year...講真暫時個市真係唔識睇,短線現在至1月頭仍有可能挾上, 因為現在個市太過一面倒唱淡,但個市無跌反而牛佐係到,利淡消息有匯控收購Household International,呢單野對匯控股價一定有影響,因為佢用股份支付收購,所以短線來說應該要跌返個合理價先,但短線會先反影利好因素(攻佔美國市場),還是利淡因素(hi股東沽匯控),咁就搞唔清,長和方面又傳李嘉誠退休,但今日個市得半日,對呢單野無乜反應,我諗都要等睇埋放完假個市先知點玩....

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[> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 03:04:00 12/24/02 Tue

哈,我都估上半年先跌後升,不過我成日估錯 >.<

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[> [> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- water supply, 10:45:14 12/24/02 Tue

Please go to Wewoo.com

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- water supply, 10:48:25 12/24/02 Tue

Wewoo.com

的投資版人氣唔算好多,暫時都仲可以講講股票

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 03:07:14 12/25/02 Wed

HAHA..可惜我唔鍾意去d要登記做會員既網站.免費都係咁話...所以我通常都係去果d網站睇多過留言...

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- opper, 01:39:15 12/26/02 Thu

多謝水哥,我其實之前已經註冊左,不過都好少留言 (就好似係 smartboy 時我都係一樣咁靜),因為到依家睇市依然好屎,成日睇錯,無謂累人o麻 ^_^

我會響個邊多d吹水架啦...

水哥今年有冇斬獲呀?

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[> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 08:25:09 12/26/02 Thu

係喎,醒目仔個網站去佐邊,無去一段時間,好似消失佐咁..搵唔到啊>?

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[> [> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 00:43:09 12/28/02 Sat

http://www.smartboy.net/

but need to register

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[> [> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 10:21:57 12/28/02 Sat

我都知醒目仔個網要登記啊,不過見佢個網好似人氣和留言的人愈來愈少,相反fai fai果個就耐唔耐有d高手俾d唔同意見,有生氣好多,真d懷念醒目網站初初成立時的熱鬧情況, 果時佢個網係我每天都去的網站,因為時不時會吸引到d高手留言,得到唔少啟發..但過去始終都是過去lu.....

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 22:42:58 12/28/02 Sat

都係唔講d無謂野,講返股票啦, 請問有無人知邊幾隻股係搞物流既,賺錢又好,慨念又好,(最好梗係賺錢啦),本來初時覺得周圍搞生物概念,同埋下年人體基因排序完成,以為生物潮將來臨,但是最近d生物概念股跌到四腳朝天,隻8222又無乜起色,可能都係爛尾多,反而最近周圍搞物流的氣氛熱得多,隻82x9貨源很少,我留意佐好耐,無端端在0.7夾到上1元,很少成交,但我唔知佢d業務有無錢賺,最近內地查數查得咁緊,買d成交量咁少的股票真係膽搏膽...

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 22:47:58 01/06/03 Mon

1月頭挾淡倉行動今日基本完成,正路來說,今早的9710已是反彈浪的高位,,如果明天,和後天都升不過這高位便確認這是另一調整浪的開始....

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 20:57:46 01/12/03 Sun

呢次真係做哂燈,夾到飛起..真係千祈唔好企係人多果邊....

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 06:53:42 01/15/03 Wed

我暫時都唔敢睇淡 ...

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 04:39:43 01/16/03 Thu

HAHA...隻82x9真係勁,由0.7已經知佢有d野,但係始終唔敢入,現在1.3了真係吹賬...haha

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 04:03:28 01/27/03 Mon

睇黎有排插 ...

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 01:02:44 01/28/03 Tue

老實講,,現在個市真係幾難睇, 因為現在基本上覺得是熊市和牛市的交接期,我都唔敢沽哂所有貨, 所以長線都留返d係度唔郁..至於短線就覺得個市有d怪, 最近都剩係插5仔,其他1,13,941,16等都係咁二跌下,即月未平倉合約又等到月尾完結先開始減少,大戶咁遲先轉倉,睇黎短仲會夾下淡倉先,等過埋年假先有明確方向..

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[> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 05:33:15 02/17/03 Mon

哇,呢輪好難玩,都唔知升定跌 ...

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[> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 09:17:53 02/17/03 Mon

所以我都唔敢亂入市, 最近個市咁波動, 可能係想整死3月到期d輪,所以就快到期d輪唔好亂掂..如果個市係想行單邊,今個月尾應會跌破9000..現在反彈重要阻力位在9500....

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[> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 11:44:16 03/01/03 Sat

個市真係唔易睇,雖然2月尾真係跌近9000,但係都破唔到.現在牛皮佐係到都幾恐佈,現在要睇下星期一匯豐公佈業績..應該會有啟示作用..

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[> [> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 01:17:53 03/02/03 Sun

個市直情離晒譜啦,二月得個四百幾點波幅,呢幾年都未試過,班大戶都唔知靠乜食糊...

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[> [> [> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 09:22:44 03/03/03 Mon

咁佢地要食湖都有好多方法,如整死哂3月到期d末日輪..維持幾百點之間波動(悶市).令正股股價保持在窩輪行使價附近,隨著時間值損失令該輪不斷下跌,所以每次反彈浪如果追入,上升後死渣不放的話,即使正股沒有太大波動,你隻輪都會跌到四腳朝天,所以點解大多數窩輪臨到期前都要升仙...呢個時期買輪真係輸多贏少,除非你係膽生毛,見佢跌到1仙或5仙呢d位搏個末日反彈..搏到既話都幾甘.因為利潤以倍計..(但不建議亂試)....

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 04:26:47 03/22/03 Sat

ha 9553! but i hvnt bought....... :(

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 10:06:29 03/22/03 Sat

咁樣夾法,沽輪購輪都瓜得七七八八啦,d末日輪係呢d波動市波動得最勁,你唔敢入都好正常,就算我見過好多次出現呢d情景,我都唔係幾敢搏,因為被周圍氣氛嚇怕佐...

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 19:09:51 03/30/03 Sun

今日終於破佐個底,等到頸都長...瓻現在8623

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 07:21:51 04/09/03 Wed

will HSI drop again in April?? haha

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[> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 08:33:56 04/10/03 Thu

HAHA..四月我梗緊估跌啦,順勢而為ma.現在行單邊,到目前為止都是慢跌,還未出現急跌情況,若維持現在的下跌速度,分分鐘跌到月尾,下跌誘因係:肺炎,美國聯儲局下月5月7日議息,美股方面我諗都係維持觀望或向淡偏多,hk現正肺炎高峰期,人心虛佉,所以四月炒落應易過炒上,如果你發現報紙賣頭條美國戰伊拉克勝利在望,但股市仍沒有利好反應的話,就可以得知佢地背後將會炒作既主題應該係肺炎失控拖累hk經濟了..haha.估估下,唔好信十足...haha.

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[> [> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 04:52:06 04/11/03 Fri

但係今日都唔跌,有d怪,覺得大戶今年HSF的玩法明顯同上兩年唔同o左,好難玩 ..........

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- 蠢人, 10:59:23 04/11/03 Fri

暫時來說都唔係好怪,最近玩法唔同佐都唔奇,一向佢地短線玩法都係成日變啦,好似佢地有時要瓻跌一千點咁,有時就分幾個小浪慢慢拋甩你,分分鐘跌成個月,有時就幾日跌哂一千點..所以要捉佢短線難度幾高,大方向唔變就ok啦...

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[> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 09:24:20 09/20/04 Mon

哈,今日入黎睇下,竟然又開番wor, haha .........
睇番晒全文,真係好大感慨,2003 頭期指輸到隻狗咁,冇晒信心,下半年既藍籌升浪就 miss 左,好在國企贏番,幸運!
個市已突破 12000,蠢人係上面既留言話會係大牛市,唔知佢有冇買野添 ~~~
我都覺得係大牛市,恆指長線上望 16000 (起碼),不過睇下今次再試 14000 o個陣時會點行先。依家手上有藍籌 call,特別係中銀,希望搵到 d 茶錢啦!!嘻嘻嘻

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[> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 21:53:47 01/17/05 Mon

過左幾個月啦,中銀仲係冇料到 ........
依家中線睇跌,會等到~13800 沽,手上有少許恆指call輪博緊反彈 (不過輸緊)
今次會跌到幾多呢?

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[> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 03:46:01 06/11/05 Sat

呢幾個月股市大牛皮,但係樓市個勢就幾好,尤其係二手市場。睇個勢個市真係有排升,第一個目標係200年高位 ~~~

不過若論基本因素,香港呢兩、三年改變並不大,人工仲係低,究竟憑甚麼可以升咁多呢??靠內地?

真係好矛盾...

Anyway, 我都係睇勢做人,呢輪買左d強勢股仔玩,遲d等恆指突破就買番d warrant,希望能好好把握等左幾年既3浪,儲番多d錢...

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[> [> [> [> Re: 對後市的看法 -- copper, 09:32:59 06/26/05 Sun

>呢幾個月股市大牛皮,但係樓市個勢就幾好,尤其係二手市場?>C睇個勢個市真係有排升,第一個目標係200年高位 ~~~
>
>不過若論基本因素,香港呢兩、三年改變並不大,人工仲係低?>A究竟憑甚麼可以升咁多呢??靠內地?
>
>真係好矛盾...
>
>Anyway,
>我都係睇勢做人,呢輪買左d強勢股仔玩,遲d等恆指突破就買?>fd warrant,希望能好好把握等左幾年既3浪,儲番多d錢...

HSI seems break through. I guess will up.
#005 is especially strong. Already buy #005 warrant ( and will buy a lot !). Cut loss when #005 closing price <$125.
This is a game in which either I win a lot OR loss at least 1/2 !!!

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