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Date Posted: 08/20/15 12:11:01pm Thu
Author: pigskin
Subject: Re: How much of a game we make in the 1st 2 and 50% for Yale
In reply to: Andy Kerr 's message, "How much of a game we make in the 1st 2 and 50% for Yale" on 08/20/15 11:15:09am Thu

>Playing Navy and New Hampshire tough and not getting
>blown out is more meaningful than just acknowledging
>the probability of winning the game.
>
> I.E., Navy 30 'gate 21 ( Competitive for full game,
>few big mistakes, no major injuries, and we become
>cohesive and better as a team from the competition )
> NH 21 'gate 10 ( Competitive for full game,
>few big mistakes and no major injuries and we become
>cohesive and better as a team from the competition )
> 'gate 27 Yale 26
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>>Predictions for Navy, New Hampshire and Yale?
>>
>>Making wild guesses regarding the probability of
>>winning each game (5% for Navy, 20% for New Hampshire,
>>and 50% for Yale) and doing some multiplication
>>predicts a 38% chance Colgate will be 0-3 going into
>>the Holy Cross game.
>>
>>I may have given us too good a chance against Navy,
>>but a boy can dream. Do the New Hampshire and Yale
>>probabilities seem fair?

Likely first game mistakes and jitters will hurt us vs Navy. I see a 35-7 loss. UNH we recover a bit after a week of correcting some glitches but Catamounts just too strong - looks like a 32-14 loss. Yale has possibilities. Is this their first game of season? If so we have a chance. I see a possible upset on our home turf, 21-17. In any case this is all a tuneup for HC and the PL schedule.

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Replies:

[> [> [> Re: How much of a game we make in the 1st 2 and 50% for Yale -- William James, 08/20/15 12:36:44pm Thu

>Is this their first game of season? If
>so we have a chance. I see a possible upset on our
>home turf, 21-17. In any case this is all a tuneup for
>HC and the PL schedule.

It does look like we are Yale's first game, so that may well be to our advantage.

Agree regarding the "tuneup" argument - Season starts with Holy Cross. Fingers crossed the team enters late September healthy and in the right mindset.


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[> [> [> Re: How much of a game we make in the 1st 2 and 50% for Yale -- gate, 08/20/15 2:57:27pm Thu

Vermont is the Catamounts, UNH is the Wildcats ;-)
Why would beating Yale be an upset? Boy, the days the Red Raiders would beat an Ivy was a given...and now we're fortunate enough to keep it close! I hope the future of the scholarship era will allow us to beat that league every time.

I say 0-3 with a good effort vs. Yale. So glad we have a healthy roster (knock on wood). Waiting for Hunt's detailed position analysis after summer training.


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[> [> [> Re: How much of a game we make in the 1st 2 and 50% for Yale -- Maven, 08/20/15 4:27:56pm Thu

>>Playing Navy and New Hampshire tough and not getting
>>blown out is more meaningful than just acknowledging
>>the probability of winning the game.
>>
>> I.E., Navy 30 'gate 21 ( Competitive for full game,
>>few big mistakes, no major injuries, and we become
>>cohesive and better as a team from the competition )
>> NH 21 'gate 10 ( Competitive for full game,
>>few big mistakes and no major injuries and we become
>>cohesive and better as a team from the competition )
>> 'gate 27 Yale 26
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>>Predictions for Navy, New Hampshire and Yale?
>>>
>>>Making wild guesses regarding the probability of
>>>winning each game (5% for Navy, 20% for New
>Hampshire,
>>>and 50% for Yale) and doing some multiplication
>>>predicts a 38% chance Colgate will be 0-3 going into
>>>the Holy Cross game.
>>>
>>>I may have given us too good a chance against Navy,
>>>but a boy can dream. Do the New Hampshire and Yale
>>>probabilities seem fair?
>
>Likely first game mistakes and jitters will hurt us vs
>Navy. I see a 35-7 loss. UNH we recover a bit after a
>week of correcting some glitches but Catamounts just
>too strong - looks like a 32-14 loss. Yale has
>possibilities. Is this their first game of season? If
>so we have a chance. I see a possible upset on our
>home turf, 21-17. In any case this is all a tuneup for
>HC and the PL schedule.


1-2. Beat Yale and give good efforts vs Navy and UNH.


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