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Date Posted: 20:21:27 02/20/03 Thu
Author: Stagman
Subject: Objective Opinions?

I live about 300 miles from Fairfield, so it is rare that I get to see them in person. I can catch them on the tube once or twice a year, I get a handful of videos after the fact, and I attend a couple of games. Regrettably, I often have to rely on boxscores and articles to evaluate from afar. And sometimes the inordinately positive or inordinately negative reviews on this board leave a distant fan off balance in terms of being able to evaluate the team.

I have seen the team play twice this year, against Duke and against Siena in Albany (both on tape). I was not impressed with either outing. Even the Siena win was, I felt, more the Saints choking than it was the Stags winning (similar to last year's regular season win in Albany).

I am left with the overall impression that the Stags are lucky to be sitting at 15-9. The numbers suggest that they don't often play well, at least not for extended periods of time, yet they have eked out a good number of wins this year in spite of that. But are they really all that much better than the teams we have put on the floor the past few years? It just seems as though a few bounces the other way and the record could just as easily be 9-15.

As much as I would like to base my impressions on live experience, I simply don't have that luxury. So I am relying on you guys. I asked the question the other day, looking for realistic positive reinforcement as to why we feel the Stags are turning the corner. No one answered. So I ask again "Do you feel the Stags have really improved? If so, why? Are they in a position to sustain this improvement or do we go back to 12-15 next year?"

I want them to win as much as the next guy, but I fear that they are not as good as their record indicates. Please prove me wrong!!

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Replies:

[> I'll try to be objective -- JCM, 22:13:26 02/20/03 Thu

I think the Stags are lucky to have 15 wins. They do not know how to run an offense. The do not know how to play with the lead. Their half court set is somewhat effective against a man-to-man defense, but faced with the zone, they can't score. Fairfield forces the ball inside too often, even when they don't have an open man to recieve the ball. They don't take enough outside shoots. Fairfield takes the least number of three point shots in the league, despite having Goode who shoots 43% from three point range, Deng Gai, who shoots 38%, Oscar Garcia 50%, Kudjo S 38% and terrance todd 36%. Nick Delficco, who is among the team leaders in three points shots taken, has one of the lowest 3 point shooting percentages on the team. In defense of delficco, he is forced to take a lot of buzzer beating prayers because others on the team pass up open looks.

On the positive side, this is an outstanding defensive unit and the defensive generates much of the offense. When they are getting steals and forcing turnovers they can score. Delficco runs the break well, and Goode has shown the ability to steal and break as well. Gai is a strong defensive presence inside. Goode is one of the best ball hawks I have seen. KS, MB both play excellent man-to-man defense.

This team has the talent level to win a lot of games. I feel many adjustments are needed in running the offense for this team to become a great team. They have never blown anyone out, something that good teams do. This is primarily because they can't score, they rely too heavily on their defense. Hopefully Coach O'toole will make some adjustments in the offense for next year.


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[> [> Re: I'll try to be objective -- JoeStag, 08:19:06 02/21/03 Fri

JCM, I would have to disagreee with you, not on your reasons, but because you say the 15 wins are because of luck. This team has won because of defense and its resillancy, and there is is NO Luck in Defense. I happen to think defense is very improtant, and is more that 50% of this game....... and IMO, our defense has createda lot of our offensive opportunities. We have finally figured that out at Fairfield, and TOT has got players that can play "D" and play hard. IMO, players like Gai, Goode and Bell are great defensive players, and when you add the Thomson, Delfico, Kudjo thats a very good unit. The frosh of Todd and Max have followed the leader ship of that crew. But Deng Gai's Defense is a major factor in us winning, and his blocked shots and intimidation is no Luck. If we can play this type of defense we can be a consistent 16-18 game winner EVERY YEAR..... thats what this game is about, if we want to be a good team

But we are not a Great team, because we lack offense. Our main offense threat is Oscar Garcia. He has proved to be a very good post up player and can create points. All our other offense comes from players that are still trying to be consistent offensive performers, and with experience their is a lot of potential. But we have come up with different Offensive Heros each game and that has been quite amazing. I guess you can call it Luck that differnet players play great each game, or you can call it Inconsistency. I tend to say that players like Kudjo and Bell are inconsistent because of their inexperience and confidence..... I don't think they are lucky.

Our offense style is a Catch-22 because we score on the inside with a good FG%, but we eisitate on shooting the outside shot. We need to have a better balance, and TOT needs to have more plays and build more confidence in our outside shooters for us to be a "very good" team. But look at it this way, if we started shooting more outside shots vs Manhattan...... we never would have won that game.

The other aspect is that Terrance Todd, has been extremely important in us winning close games. He makes good decisions, and he makes key shots. We also have had great leadership from Delfico and Garcia..... So I don't know how you can say that good decisions and leadship is luck.

I can see if you focus your evaluation of offense, that maybe you might say that Fairfield is not that good, or Lucky. But if you do focus on offense, you are looking at the wrong place, as this team is much more thatn offense.


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[> [> [> Re: I'll try to be objective -- JCM, 11:22:18 02/21/03 Fri

JS - I think we are fundamentally in agreement. I feel we are "lucky" to have won 15 games with our weak offensive efforts, but you are right in saying that defense is important and this is clearly a very strong defensive team. Despite being an optimist, I definitely see the glass as half empty at Fairfield right now, because I believe this team could have won 20 games already with better offensive execution. Siena, Rider, Niagara, Charleston Southern and Harvard would all be in the win column, with a 5% improvement in offensive productivity. If we had replaced 5 2 point attempts with three pointers and hit simply two, we would have tied or won 3 of those games.

I worry about this team next year without Garcia in the low post. Deng Gai scores nearly all of his points on offensive putbacks, dunks, allie ops and three pointers. He really has not demonstrated strong low post moves.
Anyway, this unit has the potential to develop into a very strong team, one of the best we have seen at Fairfield in 20 years. But right now, we are only half way there. This team lives and dies by defense, and consequently the stags are incapable of beating teams that are patient on offense and not prone to turnovers. We are a good but not a great team right now, bu I believe this group has the potential to be great, and in fact should be great....


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[> [> [> [> Re: I'll try to be objective -- JoeStag, 12:28:26 02/21/03 Fri

JCM, I agree that this team needs better offensive execution and that responsiblity does falls on the coach , but we also need our outside players to have more of a shooters mentatlity and knock down the shot. If we had both of those we might have won 20 + games. In all reality our 5 outside players..... Todd, Goode, Bell, Sogadzi, and Delfico have been very inconsistent in their outside shooting. And when they are not hitting them they become hesitant...... even Delfico, which is surprising.

The Good news is that with experience, these young guards will only get better offensively.

If I was the coach, I do not know who I would feel comfortable with letting them fire away. I would probably choose Todd and Delfico. We are going to need one of these guards to step-up, get the confidence, and average 12-15ppg during the MAAC Tourney...... we need that in order to win the MAAC Tourney.

Garcia will be a Big loss underneath, but that might make it easier to move to a more Open/Outside Offense. IMO, Bell moves to SF and Maxwell puts on 10 pounds of muscle and we have the foundation of a good offense.


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[> [> [> [> [> Re: I'll try to be objective -- Stagman, 12:34:24 02/21/03 Fri

Joe,

I think your key comment above is:

"The Good news is that with experience, these young guards will only get better offensively."

History has not necessarily shown that to be true. Garcia and Goode have improved significantly from last year. But have Thomson, Gai, Sogadzi, Delfico, Fellecia? I'm not so sure.

If they do improve, I agree that this team should be in good shape (pending they develop an inside presence after Garcia leaves). But if they 'stagnate', it will be difficult to ever get beyond a 17 win threshhold.


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[> [> [> [> [> [> Re: I'll try to be objective -- JoeStag, 12:52:38 02/21/03 Fri

Yes, we need our guards to improve, and you are right, we have not seen that too much. Our Forwards and Centers improve...... but not guards. I would attributre that more to the work ethic of some of our former guards. I think our current crop is much different.

I don't think we have seen the "real" Terrance Todd yet. I hope he goes from Frosh to Soph during the MAAC Tourney.

And out of the Kudjo, Bell, Van Schaick trio, I am hoping we end up with one of those three capapble of getting 15ppg a night.

IMO, the Todd-Max-Gai combo make our future very bright, they all will be special players..... but they are only frosh's and sophs


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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Re: I'll try to be objective -- Running Man, 14:04:36 02/21/03 Fri

I believe that this is the year that F.U. must somehow get itself to a postseason tourney. Presently it enjoys its best opportunity. As I look to next year I see a season where many MAAC teams will be stronger and it will be more difficult. Consider that Iona loses only Maceo Wofford and welcomes two Syracuse transfers, Manhattan loses one starter, Jarrett Johnson, and adds a highly regarded transfer, Siena loses one starter and Niagara returns all starters. Moreover Canisius had two important players out with injuries this year and they will return.
We, in contrast, lose three important guys and hope to replace their contributions with those of two untested freshmen who may be no better than bench players. The Stags better get it done this year because they might be fighting for their collective lives next year!!!


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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> [> Re: I'll try to be objective -- phirhopi, 16:41:36 02/21/03 Fri

Why are Fairfield fans always worrying about the future?

How many threads deal with h.s. recruits, who you are losing, building attendance in the years to come and who the other teams have coming back?

Enjoy the success of this year's team!! Remember those immortal words, "tomorrow never comes!"


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[> [> [> [> [> Re: I'll try to be objective -- JCM, 14:30:28 02/21/03 Fri

I think out guys can hit the three but I feel there lack of confidence may stem from the Coach telling them to work the ball inside. I understand they are being schooled not to take the open 3 but to work the ball in for a higher percentage inside shot. Everyone who shoots higher than 33% from three point range in my opinion should have the green light to shoot. If they start taking and making those shots, Garcia and Gai are going to have a field day inside, because they will finally be getting open. I understand we have taken fewer three pointers than almost any team in the NCAA's despite having 5 players shooter over 33% from three point range. I think this is a mistake, to take so few outside shoots, especially given that these shots are worth more.


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[> [> [> [> [> Re: I'll try to be objective -- Stag 92, 07:17:38 02/22/03 Sat

Something to consider - You don't know who to feel comfortable to say "let it fly" because they haven't. I wouldn't let anybody let it fly right now, that would be getting away from what we have done all year to win, and that it not making the 3. I would love to see us be a 3 point threat, but that won't come until next year.


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[> [> [> [> [> [> Re: I'll try to be objective -- Menzies, 17:12:26 02/22/03 Sat

Agree, you can't make changes now unless something has changed significantly about your line up or options. We are what we are.


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[> [> [> [> Several other factors -- SonofDoc, 13:41:02 02/21/03 Fri

In judging perfomance at Fairfield this year, and by using the past as the standard to judge, here are a few additional comments;

This year's team has been able to win on the road, something I believe has been pretty tough in the past. Some of those road wins (Siena, Manhattan, Iona) are in what can be considered hostile territory for the visitors. This may be an indication of a team not necessarily "lucky" but deserving.

Also, in the past, particularly last year, Fairfield seemed to lose a lot of close games in the waning minutes, something we have not seen much of this year. We pulled out close wins this year (UNC Wilmington, Iona at home, Marist on road, Yale, at Manhattan) to name a few. Again an indication of a team that has earned wins.

Also, as mentioned many times this year, ability of many different players to step it up and excel in games when they don't play well for 40 minutes. We have seen high scorers in the game be Todd, Gai, Bell, Delfico, Sogadzi, Maxwell, maybe Goode ? That's a lot of different players. In the past, this team have to depend on Spann or Phillip to rise to the occasion. This doesn't always happen (i.e. Rider) but most of the time someone is ready to play to his maximum ability.

Fairfield has some lucky wins this year (Iona at home) as well as tough losses (Charleston Southern) which even out. Using the past as a barometer, I would say this is a team which deserves 15 wins.


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[> Here's an Iona fan's take... -- GuyF, 09:56:31 02/21/03 Fri

Stagman, have no fear, the Stags are indeed as good as their record.

I think the biggest difference for Fairfield is more consistency on defense. The Stags are tough on you on the perimeter and of course have the shotblockers inside. Their younger guys seem to play beyond their years (as Iona's do) and veterans like Delfico know and understand their roles and rarely try to do more than they're capable of.

After you guys started losing at home, I questioned whether you had peaked too early, since you guys tore it up on the road with wins at not-too-easy places like Iona and Siena. Then you won at Manhattan, and we were reminded of your capabilities.

I don't think you're as good as Manhattan, but you are a shade better than the next tier of Iona-Niagara-Siena. If you guys find offensive consistency in Trenton, you can easily win the tournament. If not, you should survive the first round anyway, but you'd be in for a fight against the 3 seed (assuming they don't lose to likely 6 seed Rider).

As for the NIT, your RPI suggests that as long as you don't go into the toilet down the stretch, you're in. Hell, because of the arena (and because you proved vs St John's that you guys get fannies in the seats vs a name school), you might even get to host a game.

I'll be in Trenton on Friday, even if my Gaels hold on to secure a top 4 seed and don't play until Saturday. If anyone's interested in meeting up for a beverage of choice, let me know!


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[> [> Re: Here's an Iona fan's take... -- Stagman, 09:59:44 02/21/03 Fri

Thanks for the input.

I agree that defense is a huge part of basketball, yet it does get overlooked. Good defensive teams tend to be a bit 'ugly' in the way they play (see past strong Georgetown & Temple teams for example. Not aesthetically appealing, yet effective).

The Stags are actually ranked #52 in the country in FG Pct Defense, and that is impressive. They are, however, only ranked #185 in Points Allowed.

Opponents take about 4 more shots per game than FU does, part of which is due to being beaten badly on the offensive boards, and part of which is due to the fact that the Stags commit 2 more turnovers per game than opponents. Those two areas MUST be improved quickly. Give your opponent 4 more shots per game and it's like starting the game behind by 4 points. Throw on top of that the propensity to fall behind by double digits in the first five minutes and you've got a good reason why guys like me have a constant knot in their stomach.

They are also ranked #314 (out of 325) in 3's attempted. This should not happen for a team that is a decent three-point shooting team.


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[> [> [> Re: Here's an Iona fan's take... -- JasperHoops, 10:20:58 02/21/03 Fri

Relax Stags, your team is sooo young.

What do you lose this yr 1 starter.

Your future is bright indeed.


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