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Date Posted: 11:29:00 02/07/03 Fri
Author: JoeStag
Subject: Re: At Large - a Mathematical look
In reply to: Stagman 's message, "At Large" on 10:55:56 02/07/03 Fri

There are about 30 Automatic bids. 15 go to the Top Conferences and that team is usually in the top 50. The other 15 automatic bids go to mid majors like the MAAC and low majors (not in the top 50). That accounts for 30 of the 65.... that leaves 35 at large bids..... and when you add that to the original 15 top bids, that gives you the top 50 from RPI. So I kinda agree with you:

< 40 ==> you got an At Large
40-50 ==> looks good
50-60 ==> on the bubble

Other factors: W-L record, Quality wins, Road wins, Record in last 10 games, Record against teams already in the NCAA, Record in Conference Tourney, Conference RPI.

Manhattan is the only MAAC team with a chance at an at-Large.

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Replies:

[> [> [> [> Re: At Large - a Mathematical look -- Stagman, 11:56:35 02/07/03 Fri

As of today, arguably, the only mid-majors who could get considered for an at-large, if they didn't win their conference tournaments, would be:

Butler
Manhattan
Creighton
Southern Illinois
Gonzaga


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[> [> [> [> [> Re: At Large - a Mathematical look -- Fan, 12:15:35 02/07/03 Fri

If Manhattan is on the bubble, it will get the benefit of the doubt. Don't underestimate the NCAA's desire to have an NYC presence in the tournament. St. John's probably isn't going to make it. The last time Manhattan got an at-large, in 1995, its RPI was in the mid-50s.


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[> [> [> [> [> Re: At Large - a Mathematical look -- jasper93, 12:38:23 02/07/03 Fri

You are forgetting Kent St. with a rpi of 30.


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[> [> [> [> [> I would also add UNCW and HC -- JoeStag, 12:45:45 02/07/03 Fri

UNCW is currently 14-5, and its very possible they could rin the table and lose in their conference finaland end 24-6. Thet are currently ranked 70th and could end in the 50's. Since they had a very good NCAA they could be on the Bubble.

Holy Cross is a long shot but they could finish 25-5 under the same scenario as UNCW. Not as likely as their RPI would probably end in the 60's - 70's. And they played well in last years NCAA but did not win.


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[> [> [> [> [> [> POMEROY COLLEGE BB RATINGS -- STAGAL, 18:10:30 02/07/03 Fri

Went back to where I found #'s from above, was the Pomeroy rating. From there I went to college RPI as you mentioned, MC at 57 and FF at 81.


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