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Date Posted: 09:43:46 02/02/03 Sun
Author: JoeStag
Subject: Seedingology

Its February, so its time to think about MAAC Tourney Seedings. Normally, anybody can beat anybody in the MAAC, so Seeding was not overly important in the past..... but with the new format there creates some interesting wrinkles. Here is how I see the importance of each see for Fairfield.

#1 Seed - its a huge advantage. I do understand the logic of being rusty from 2 byes, but advantages of the 2 byes far out way that cause of the parity of the MAAC. Also this team needs to acheive something.... like 1st place. The confidence in acheiving that goal would be huge. Manhattan likely to get #1, but Stags have a chance.

#2-#3 Seed - I see no difference in either of these seeds, but its extrememly important to finish either #2 or #3 rather than #4, because one will avoid playing the #1 seed (possibly Manhattan) in the Semi's. The #2 or #3 seed will open with a dangerous game against either Canisius, Marist, Rider, or St Petes.... all teams capable of pulling off an upset. Thats good news and bad news. Its bad because we could get upset in the first round, but its also very possible that if we win, our opponent in the semi's could be one of theose underdogs (Canisius, Marist, Rider, or St Petes).... how great would that be. Fairfield is the likely candidate to finish #2 or #3, but Iona, Siena and Niagara also have good chances.

#4-#5 Seed - Yes, the #4 seed gets a first round bye, but there is little difference between these two seeds. The #5 see opens against #10, which is likely Loyola, and IMO, the only MAAC Team that is not capable of winning their opening game..... so its really like a bye. The problem with the #4 or #5 seeds is that 2 god teams will play each other in the Quarterfinals, and then play the #1 seed in the semis..... BY FAR the hardest bracket to go in the Tourney. Iona, Niagara, and Siena lead for these seeds, but Stags could slip down, or Canisius or Marist could step up.

Stags Goal: Big advantage for the #1 seed, if not, we must be either #2 or #3. Anything lower would be disapointing, and a difficult seed.

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Replies:

[> Re: Seedingology -- observer, 10:15:07 02/02/03 Sun

There might be a few upsets along the way, but expect the MAAC championship to come from one of the top four. Jaspers are in the drivers seat, and if they go into the tourney as the top seed they will be a heavy favorite. Buts its not a done deal that they will finish first. Fairfield has the best chance of catching them, with Iona next as they still got 2 games left with the Jaspers.


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[> Re: Seedingology -- observer, 10:20:09 02/02/03 Sun

There might be a few upsets along the way, but expect the MAAC championship to come from one of the top four. Jaspers are in the drivers seat, and if they go into the tourney as the top seed they will be a heavy favorite. Buts its not a done deal that they will finish first. Fairfield has the best chance of catching them, with Iona next as they still got 2 games left with the Jaspers.


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[> Let me add something to this.... -- GuyF, 10:36:42 02/02/03 Sun

I started a thread discussing this very topic on the sMAAC board about a week or so ago. It had to do with where you'd wanna be seeded if you were NOT in the top 4. I'll copy and paste the relevant section:

"Of course, the goal is to finish in the top 4 to avoid the expanded PIG round. But what if you didn't finish in the top 4? Where would you want to be seeded?

Answer: the 6 seed.

Why not the 5 seed, you ask? Well, the 6 would have to play #9 the first day, which won't be cake but should be a W. Then, they'd play the 3 seed against a good team but not Fairfield or Manhattan. Winnable. If the 6 is still alive in the semis, they'd would play the 2-7 winner--and given the history of MAAC tourney upsets, would anyone be shocked to see a 7 take out a 2 in this round? In other words, there is at least the potential for the 6 to draw the 7 in the semis, a MUCH more desirable scenario than having to play the 2 obviously.

Conversely, if you're the 5 seed, you'd have to beat the 10, then come back and beat the 4 the next day, and if you do that, you HAVE to play the 1 in the semis. Granted, that team could be a little cold and Ensor's whole plan to get the 1 seed to the finals could blow up in his face, but all in all, I like the idea of POSSIBLY playing a low seed in the semis, rather than the definite of having to take out a 1 to get to the finals."


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[> [> We agree on one thing -- JoeStag, 14:03:36 02/02/03 Sun

That the 5th seed is not to attractive this year, especially if there is a strong #1 seed like Manhattan. I am not to sure #4 is that much better, even with the bye.

If Manhattan does not finish first, you can throw my logic out the window. The bottom line is that you don't want to play Manhattan in the semi's, even though they have not won a MAAC Tourney game under Gonzo.


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[> Re: Seedingology -- Menzies, 12:38:49 02/02/03 Sun

Joe, Do you know the timing of the tourney? In the past, I believe 3/6 was difficult because the winner had to play again within 10-14 hours. Does this situation still exist?


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[> [> Re: Seedingology -- jenningsbeach, 12:56:12 02/02/03 Sun

Friday, March 7
5-10 @ 5 p.m.
7-8 @ 7:15 p.m.
6-9 @ 9:30 p.m.

Saturday, March 8
4-5/10 @ 4:30 p.m.
2-7/8 @ 7:15 p.m.
3-6/9 @ 9:30 p.m.

Sunday, March 9
1-4/5/10 @ 6 p.m.
2/7/8-3/6/9 @ 8:15 p.m.

Monday, March 10
Championship game @ 7 p.m.

If you win a late game, you will play another late game the next night. Pretty much a 24-hour turnaround for everyone, although the second semifinal winner has to play the big game about 20 hours later.


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[> [> [> Re: Seedingology -- Menzies, 17:34:43 02/02/03 Sun

Looks like they corrected that problem. This looks very fair to all.


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