Randomness Or Random Mess -- Small Businesses Discussion Forum

[ Show ]

Support VoyForums

[ Shrink ]

VoyForums Announcement: Programming and providing support for this service has been a labor of love since 1997. We are one of the few services online who values our users' privacy, and have never sold your information. We have even fought hard to defend your privacy in legal cases; however, we've done it with almost no financial support -- paying out of pocket to continue providing the service. Due to the issues imposed on us by advertisers, we also stopped hosting most ads on the forums many years ago. We hope you appreciate our efforts.

Show your support by donating any amount. (Note: We are still technically a for-profit company, so your contribution is not tax-deductible.) PayPal Acct: Feedback:

Donate to VoyForums (PayPal):

[ Login ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 1, 2, [3], 4, 5, 6 ]

Subject: Randomness Or Random Mess

Author:
Dennis S. Vogel

[ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

Date Posted: 23:09:52 11/30/13 Sat

I'm still attending to some issues that have been intensifying for a while, so I don't have much time & energy to write a smooth, flowing message.

If you have questions about this post &/or others, please post your questions to send them to me via this email address thrivingbusiness@email.com

Often, there's little or no difference between randomness & a mess - except what is learned, then what is done with the results.

Definition from the Free Dictionary: randomness - the quality of lacking any predictable order or plan
unregularity, irregularity - not characterized by a fixed principle or rate; at irregular intervals
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Randomness

Long ago, before electricity was ever used to send & receive messages, some people had pigeons to carry notes to other people. Here's an example - A military outpost was far from the headquarters. The distance was too much for 1-2 birds, so 4 birds were used to relay messages with villages in between HQ & the outpost. Messages weren't being sent or received along the whole route, so an officer investigated the problem. He told the bird trainers/keepers in each village to bring the birds in.
When the officer looked at those birds, he said, "I see the problem now. There are 3 carrier pigeons & a swallow."

Your business systems may SEEM to be setup effectively & efficiently, but you need to look closely at each part.

Everything may go according to your plans until a swallow is activated. Be sure each part is designed to do what you need it to do. Swallows could carry messages, but they're designed differently, so they probably wouldn't be as dependable as pigeons. Yet, if you have a problem with insects, you need more swallows than pigeons.

I advocate testing variations of marketing methods & business practices. You should be alert to notice variances because many things can disrupt or disturb a system.

My connotation of variance: an unplanned influence changes the result (which may be quite different than your desired effect).

My connotation of variation: adjusting a cause to produce a different effect

Another explanation is based on modules & interdependencies: A modular system is setup to produce a consistent result. Depending on the environment a system is in, fluctuations can cause variances by influencing the quality & quantity of results. Adjusting or replacing a module affects everything downline. Putting an interdependency in the system would cause a bigger difference.

How Much Difference Is Enough?
It's often safe to get incremental improvements gained by iterative changes. Yet, what if you need more than an increment (slight augmentation)?
When you know which cause leads to your desired effect, you may be able to repeat the cause & get more of what you want (if it's available).

Increasing the size or frequency of a cause won't always bring you more of your desired effect.

Example: If a promotion successfully sold your whole inventory of a certain product, the demand may be satisfied. Ordering more inventory (especially if it's a rush order to catch a perceived demand wave) may result in unsold inventory. The profits from the successful promotion could be negated by the cost that inventory & storing it, plus the expedited shipping. Even if suppliers accept returned/unsold inventory, the return shipping & possible restocking fees may negate some or all profit.

Despite using your best judgment, you could still wonder if a decision (you made) is better than an option you didn't use. Maybe you'll never know, yet you should realize you need to keep moving on instead of succumbing to paralysis from too much analysis.

To change your results, you'd probably need to test something you haven't used before or maybe what you used long ago. It may mean you'd have to make a bigger investment & take a bigger risk, but you can still do a small test to limit your financial risk.
To get a different & bigger result, you should consider how well you can afford to add more random elements &/or a bigger change of one element (in effect a bigger randomness).

Limited Randomness Or Controlled Chaos:
No matter what you do to control complex circumstances, you can't control (often can't predict) each aspect. Each aspect can be an effect that leads to another cause or potential cause. Potential causes may be preventable, yet when multiple things are happening at the same time (every second), nobody can pay attention to every cause & prevent or influence each effect.

This isn't a defeatist attitude, it's life (business & personal). If you try to control everything, your results will be almost as if you controlled nothing. Like the importance of marketing differentiation (you won't be all things to all people), you need to consciously differentiate what you can control & determine how much realistic control you can have.

You also need to determine urgency & importance (Stephen R. Covey's Quadrant I & Quadrant II), so you can prioritize & use your resources accordingly. How important is a potential result? How good/bad is its potential positive/negative consequence? Of all expected potential positive results, which results can you realistically expect? If one potential positive result has more upside potential, what can you do to assure that result? If one potential negative result has more downside potential, what can you do to assure that result is avoided or at least mitigated?

Example- You have a successful promotion that draws in many consumers. If you try to persuade a difficult prospect, you may miss your chance to serve one or more prospects who know what they want & need you to run your cash register.

That difficult prospect may leave without a purchase also. You should determine, at which point, you should suggest that difficult prospect needs more time to think & mention you need to serve others.

When the results start coming in during or after a promotion, here are some things to ponder:
What is making or has made the biggest/bigger difference(s)
Which difference(s) are/were mostly/totally positive/negative?
Which positive difference(s) can be replicated/improved?
Which positive difference(s) should be replicated/improved on high priority?
When should the replication/improvement be implemented?
It may seem positive results should be a high priority.
Which negative difference(s) might be repeated if remedial action isn't done successfully?

Flint McGlaughlin & other MECLABS/MarketingExperiments crew members often advise learning as much as possible from all results. (MECLABS - http://www.meclabs.com/) (MarketingExperiments - http://www.marketingexperiments.com/) Even if some results are all negative, you can get value from what you learn. So, even when you don't get a lift in sales or profit, you can get a learning that'll help you succeed in the future. (http://www.marketingexperiments.com/site-optimization/negative-lifts.html)

Your investment may seem lost in what seems like a losing effort. Yet, it can be like "tuition" when you learn all you can.

Even when it seems you learn nothing, your study of results may build your future intuition. You may think/feel something will succeed or fail based on what you don't even consciously remember since your subconscious still records & recalls results.

Losing a lot of money ("a lot" is relative depending on circumstances). A big corporation could invest thousands of dollars & get negative results which saves millions of dollars an ineffective rollout would've cost.

A decision to invest more in implementation after a breakeven may be tricky. Yet, sometimes a small change in circumstances can make a big difference in results.
Can you identify what/why didn't work? Did you learn enough to know how to avoid negative results? Did you learn enough to know what to do & not do?

Jim Collins strongly advises people to develop "Stop Doing Lists" because nobody can afford to try everything. It makes no sense to deplete resources by doing what makes little or no sense. When those resources are needed for something else, it'll be too late.

[ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

Replies:

Subject	Author	Date
Reducing Randomness With A Promotion/Method Planning Template	Dennis S. Vogel	00:31:41 08/30/14 Sat