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Date Posted: 02/ 7/03 12:17pm
Author: TommyDore
Author Host/IP: 66.224.71.121
Subject: This Week's look at The Big Dance

This week's look at the Big Dance
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We all know what the NCAA sleection committee claims to be emphasizing this year. It looks like more mid-major teams will be invited than heretofore believed and supposedly a team finishing 7-9/22-10 from a top conference has no chance at all. With that, here is a conference-by-conference look as we enter the home stretch: Adding up the bids gives you a sum of 59 definites and 13 possibles. 7 of these 13 will be jilted.

Big West--1 bid: Utah State 7-3/16-5 is tied with UC-Santa Barbara 7-3/10-10. UCSB has no chance at an at-large bid. The conference gets hurt by the Gauchos and not the Aggies going to the bracket buster.

SEC--5 or 6 bids: Kentucky 7-0/17-3 is scary right now playing more like Indiana of 1975 and 1976. Florida 7-1/18-3 and Georgia 5-2/13-5 are in. Vying for the last 2 or 3 bids are: Tennessee 4-3/12-6, Auburn 5-3/16-5, and Mississippi St. 4-4/14-5. All the teams finishing 9-7 or better will make it. Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, and Vanderbilt look like NIT teams.


America East--1 bid: Boston U. 8-1/13-7 has a comfortable lead over the pack and is the favorite to win the tourney and repeat.

A-10--3 bids: Dayton 8-0/16-3 and St. Joe's 6-2/16-3 look like locks, with Xavier 7-1/16-4 also looking good. Rhode Island and Richmond lurk just off the bubble and could surprise in the tourney. Temple is 4-4/6-12 and can only get in with a tourney title.

ACC--4 or 5 bids: Wake Forest 6-2/16-2 and Maryland 6-2/14-5 co-lead and are in. Duke 5-3/15-3 is in. N.C. State 5-3/12-6 is close to a lock. Virginia 4-4/13-7 has the advantage over Ga. Tech 4-4/11-8. The Tar Heels are NIT-bound.

A-Sun--1 bid: 4 teams have pulled away from the pack. Troy St. 9-1/18-4 is leading Cent. Fla. 8-2/16-7, Mercer 8-2/14-5, and Belmont 8-2/13-9. Advantage Don Maestri and his Trojans.

Big 12--6 bids: Okl. St. 7-1/18-2, Oklahoma 6-1/15-3, Kansas 6-1/16-5, and Texas 5-2/14-4 are locks and all have final four potential. Competing for the remaining two berths are Missouri 4-3/13-5, Colorado 3-4/13-7, and Texas Tech 3-4/13-5. Missouri and Colorado are unbeaten at home in conference play, while the Red Raiders have lost a home game to the Cowboys--advantage Tigers and Buffs.

Big East--4 or 5 bids: The big 3 in the West are in: Pitt 6-1/16-2, Syracuse 6-2/15-3, and Notre Dame 6-2/18-4. Seton Hall, 4th in the West at 5-4/10-9, is hot and could be a sleeper. In the East, the race is tightening with no team guaranteed to go: Villanova 5-2/12-8 leads U Conn 4-3/13-5, St. John's 4-4/11-7, and Boston College 4-4/11-8.

Big Sky--1 bid: not being in the bracket buster could hurt Weber St. 7-0/17-5 if they fall in the conf. tourney. E. Washington at 6-2/14-8 is capable of being the team to pull off the upset.

Big South--1 bid: Winthrop 8-2/14-7 has risen to the top and should repeat for the umpteenth time. Birminghan Southern 7-3/14-7 is the only real challenger.

Big 10--5 or 6 bids: Purdue leads at 7-1/15-4. Looking to be locks are Illinois 5-3/15-4, Wisconsin 5-3/15-5, and Iowa 4-3/12-6. Indiana 4-4/14-7 is fading, while Michigan St. 4-4/12-8 and Minnesota 4-4/12-7 are coming on. Expect one of the 4-4 teams to miss out. A gut feeling tells me this league will falter in the Dance.


Colonial--1 bid: UNC-Wilmington 8-2/14-5 has a 1 1/2 game lead over Drexel, VCU, and George Mason and a 2 game lead over Drexel and Delaware. Any of these 6 could win the conference tourney.

C-USA--3 or 4 bids: Louisville 7-0/17-1, Marquette 8-1/16-3, and Cincinnati 6-3/13-6 are in. Memphis 4-3/13-5, UAB 4-3/12-6, and South Florida 4-4/11-8 are on the outside looking in, with only one team having a chance. U of L and Marquette both have Final 4 capabilities.

Horizon--1 or 2 bids: This conference lucked into 3 bracket buster teams who all have a chance to play in Mid-March, and none of them are Butler 7-1/17-3, already a lock. Ill.-Chicago 9-2/15-5, Wisc.-Milw. 8-2/17-5, and Detroit 5-5/11-9 all get a chance to showcase their talent on 2/22.

Independents--NEVER

Ivy League--1 bid: Although Brown is 4-0/9-9 and should get to 6-0 by Saturday night, the league is a two-team race between the perennial big 2: Penn 2-0/10-5 and Princeton 2-0/8-7 will decide it in their two (and possibly 3) meetings. Brown's comeuppance occurs next weekend when they face Penn and Princeton on the road on consecutive nights.

MAAC--1 or 2 bids: Even without a bracket buster invite, Manhattan 11-1/18-3 has played itself into the Dance. Fairfield 9-2/13-7 is the team with the best chance of upsetting the Jaspers in the conference tourney.

MAC--1 or 2 bids: Kent St. 10-1/17-2 is in the bracket buster but doesn't need the pub; they're in for the third year in a row (under three coaches). B G U and Marshall's bracket buster bids are worthless. Central Michigan 6-3/13-5 could have benfitted from it, and now the Chippewas must upset the Golden Flashes in Cleveland to give the MAC another bid.

Mid-Cont.--1 bid: Even with Homer Drew Lite, This league is still the Valpo 6-1/12-8 Invitational. Oral Roberts 6-2/15-6 lurks close behind.

MEAC--1 bid: Cy Alexander's S.Carolina State Bulldogs 10-0/12-7 are making shambles of the league race this year. Hampton 7-2/11-7 is fading.

Missouri Valley--2 or 3 bids: Could this conference send 3 teams? You bet. Creighton 10-1/20-2 is a lock, and their bracket buster game is for seeding purposes only. Southern Illinois 10-1/15-4 is also in the bracket buster and is close to securing a bid. Southwest Mo. 9-1/13-6 is good enough to win the tourney. Stranger things have happened.

Mountain West--2 or 3 bids: The top 4 play each other this Saturday and Monday night and the race should become more clear. Wyoming 4-1/16-4 and Utah 4-1/16-4 play Monday night in Laramie. BYU 4-1/15-5 and Colorado St. 3-2/14-6 play Monday night in Ft. Collins. Saturday BYU is at Wyoming and Utah is at CSU. San Diego St., UNLV (host team), and even Air Force have a shot in the conference tourney. This is the most balanced league, with only New Mexico outclassed.

Northeast--1 bid: This is a 3-team race with Monmouth 9-1/11-8, Wagner 8-2/12-8, and Central Conn. 8-2/11-8 fighting for a probable play-in date.

Ohio Valley--1 bid: Morehead St. 9-1/15-6 continues to play well under Kyle Macy. Austin Peay 7-2/14-6 is the most likely spoiler for the Eagles. Perennial champ Murray St. 5-4/12-8 appears to be outmatched this year.

Pac-10--4 or 5 bids: Arizona 9-1/17-2, Cal 8-2/15-4, and Stanford 7-3/16-6 are locks. Oregon 6-4/16-5 is almost a lock. Arizona St. 6-4/14-7 could sneak in with a strong finish.

Patriot--1 bid: Holy Cross 6-1/16-4 has taken over for Lehigh 5-2/13-7 who dropped two in a row. If Holy Cross wins out to the title game and loses there to finish 25-5, they're out--cruel world.


Southern--1 bid: This is the top league left out of the bracket buster, so they will suffer. 5 teams are good enough to win a first round game in the tourney. Appalachian St. 8-1/15-5 leads the way with Charleston 7-2/17-5, Chattanooga 7-3/15-6, Davidson 6-3/12-7, and E T S U 6-3/12-8 very close behind. Appy St., with their blitzing offense, could be the most competitive in the Dance and could make the sweet 16.

Southland--1 bid: We must give much credit to Stephen F. Austin 10-1/14-4 this week for being able to play through the tragedy that rocked Nacogdoches. Sam Houston St. 10-2/14-5 is right behind.

SWAC--1 bid: Could this be happening? Prairie View A&M 8-1/9-8 (picked to finish last every year) tied for first in February? Do you believe in miracles? Yes! The team that was 0-27 just a few years back could be headed to a play-in game thanks to a win over Alabama St. 7-2/10-9. Texas Southern 8-1/12-6 could be the nasty spoiler. The 1944 St. Louis Browns proved it can happen--that was a war year also.

Sunbelt--1 bid: two teams have a nice advantage over 5 others, but any of the 7 could win the tourney. Western Kentucky 6-2/14-8 is in the bracket buster, but they will not get an at-large bid. La- Lafayette 7-1/15-6 could have benefitted from the bracket buster. The 5 sleepers are MTSU 6-3/11-11, UALR 4-4/13-8, New Mexico St. 5-4/14-6, New Orleans 5-5/12-9, and South Alabama 5-5/11-10. Denver 4-5/12-11 has collapsed with 5 straight losses. Of course, the tourney is in Bowling Green, KY.

West Coast--1 or 2 bids: Gonzaga 8-0/17-5 may benefit the most from the bracket buster and a good showing will guarantee them a spot in the Dance. The San Diego Toreos 5-2/11-9 appears to be the one team capable of upsetting the Zags and have the fortune of hosting the conference tourney. Pepperdine 3-5/11-10 is doing its best impersonation of Sham at the 1973 Belmont Stakes.

WAC--1 or 2 bids: 3 teams here get bracket buster games, but only Fresno St. 9-2/16-4 can exploit that appearance into an at-large bid. 4 teams have a shot at pulling off the tourney upset in Tulsa: Nevada 7-3/12-8, SMU 6-4/11-9, Hawaii 6-5/12-6, and Rice 5-4/13-6. Tulsa 4-5/11-7 has swooned.

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