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Date Posted: 10:39 14/09/24 Sat
Author: Two-Bob Man
Author Host/IP: NoHost / 110.144.28.91
Subject: I guess this just highlights the lottery that the draft can be
In reply to: Porter 's message, "Finlay Macrae" on 10:00 13/09/24 Fri

Now, I must pre-empt this by stating that, while he is on an AFL list, Finn still has a chance of sustaining an AFL career and the situation at Collingwood has probably deferred a full on reliance on him due to others being chosen ahead of him due to form/experience.

Perhaps at a club with less midfield options than Collingwood has had across the last few seasons, Finn might have been exposed eariler and had more senior games to his name.

But looking back at draft profiles and phantom drafts, he was definitely rated a first round prospect (as too were Ollie Henry and Reef McInnes, incidently) almost unanimously across the landscape.

Cal Twomey rated him at pick 20 (he had Henry at pick 10 and McInnes at pick 11)

Fox Sports phantom draft had Finn at pick 11 (McInnes at 16 and Henry at 17)

Knightmare had Macrae at pick 7 (and had Henry at pick 10 and McInnes at pick 11)

Rookie Me Central had Macrae at pick 11 (with Henry at 16 and McInnes at 20)

Collingwood ultimately took Henry at 17, Macrae at 19 and McInness at 23

So without the benefit of hindsight, we can't really bemoan the situation we navigated at the 2020 draft.

You can't predict that a player would want to "go home" after merely one season at Henry did.

Also, the identification of McInness early on as an NGA seems to have been astute and we lucked out a bit in that the bid for him came much later than anticipated (some had us needing to use our first pick on him as the bid would come sooner than it did).

And Finn seems to have been picked around where many predicted he was rated (perhaps even a bit later).

And, unlike the draft of the following 2 years, when Covid would have significantly impacted junior pathsways and predictions, there was still a certain level of "surety" around this draft cohort.

The point is that there are no guarantees with drafting.

Obviously, the earlier picks are more definite than those later, but as we have seen with the likes of recent delistings Schache (pick 2) and Marchbank (pick 6), there are no guarantees.

TBM

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