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| Subject: And there has been alot of research since then.... | |
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Author: jw |
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Date Posted: 10:21:04 03/05/07 Mon In reply to: Oropan 's message, "We went through this whole discussion in late 2005" on 07:41:09 03/05/07 Mon Global warming is causing stronger Atlantic hurricanes finds new study Rhett A. Butler, mongabay.com March 1, 2007 Global warming is fueling stronger hurricanes according to a new Geophysical Research Letters study that revises that database of historic hurricanes. Previously the hurricane database was considered inconsistent for measuring the record of tropical storms since there have been significant improvements in the technology to measure storms since recording-keeping began. Before the development of weather satellites, scientists relied on ship reports and sailor logs to record storms. The advent of weather satellites in the 1960s improved monitoring, but records from newer technology have never been squared with older data. The new study "normalizes" the hurricane record since 1983. "The debate is not about scientific methods, but instead centers around the quality of hurricane data," said lead author James Kossin, a research scientist at UW-Madison's Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. "So we thought, 'Lets take the first step toward resolving this debate.'" Warm ocean waters fuel hurricanes, and there was plenty of warm water for Katrina to build up strength once she crossed over Florida and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. This image depicts a 3-day average of actual sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from August 25-27, 2005. Every area in yellow, orange or red represents 82 degrees Fahrenheit or above. A hurricane needs SSTs at 82 degrees or warmer to strengthen. The data came from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. The GOES satellite provided the cloud data for this image. Image Credit: NASA/SVS. "This new dataset is unlike anything that's been done before," he continued. "It's going to serve a purpose as being the only globally consistent dataset around. The caveat of course, is that it only goes back to 1983." Kossin and co-authors Daniel Vimont, a UW-Madison atmospheric scientist, Ken Knapp, a scientist at the NCDC, and Richard Murnane, a scientist at the Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, used the new dataset to assess two controversial studies (published in Nature and Science) that argued climate change is causing more frequent and intense hurricanes. The authors found that the conclusions hold for the Atlantic but not other parts of the world. "The data says that the Atlantic has been trending upwards in hurricane intensity quite a bit, but the trends appear to be inflated or spurious everywhere else, meaning that we still can't make any global statements," said Kossin. "The average conditions in the Atlantic at any given time are just on the cusp of what it takes for a hurricane to form. So it might be that imposing only a small (man-made) change in conditions, creates a much better chance of having a hurricane." Hurricanes require temperatures of around 27 degrees Celsius (81 degrees Fahrenheit) to develop. Because the Atlantic Ocean is cooler than other areas where hurricanes (known as typhoons in the Western Pacific and cyclones elsewhere) form, it is more susceptible to small changes in ocean temperature say the researchers. While the new research has normalized the satellite-based hurricane records, other scientists are working to develop alternative ways to measure historic hurricanes including tropical caves and tree rings >The simple FACTS are that hurricanne numbers have been >below normal for quite some years now. It runs in >cycles and is due for an upturn....which still hasn't >materialized. Go back to the polar bear argument, you >get more people interested with that nonsense one! >BTW, polar bear numbers have increased five fold in >the last fifty years.....kinda like those caribo >around the pipeline on the North Slope! >Good luck with your "sky is falling" stuff Chicken >Little! > > > > > > > >> The waters of the gulf were 1 - 2 degrees above >>normal last summer, the el nino smothered hurricane >>development in the atlantic, still the season was near >>normal, with no major landfalls. For a few months >>this winter the gulf waters were at or below normal >>because there were alot of storms in the gulf of >>mexico, but the temperatures are now rising fast and >>have returned to being 1 - 2 degrees above normal, as >>it has been for much of the decade, it is possible >>that water temps in the gulf and atlantic may reach >>near the record levels of 2005, there will be some >>forecasts comming out soon on this. >>>BTW, what happened to those warm waters in 2006? They >>>went away in one year? >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>> It is almost certain that there will be another 2 >>>>degrees of global warming, most likely during the >>next >>>>40 years. The reason we can kill the american gulf >>>>coast good bye is because the hurricane season of >>2005 >>>>was powered by atlantic waters that were 2 - 4 >>degrees >>>>above historic temps. Most recent years have seen >>>>these waters 1 - 2 degrees above historic levels, so >>>>another 2 degrees will make the atlantic waters as >>>>warm as the record hurricane season of 2005 every >>>>year, there will be many more katrinas, ritas, >dennis >>>>and wilmas. All the gulf coast states are >>>>red-republican, it will be america's gain! >>>> >>>> >>>>>INTERVIEW-EU likely to miss global warming goal-UN >>>>>expert >>>>>02 Mar 2007 15:05:30 GMT >>>>>Source: Reuters >>>>> >>>>> By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent >>>>> >>>>>OSLO, March 2 (Reuters) - The European Union is >>>>>unlikely to meet the goal of a maximum 2 degree >>>>>Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) rise in temperatures which >>>it >>>>>views as a threshold for dangerous climate change, >a >>>>>leading U.N. climate official said on Friday. >>>>> >>>>>"It clearly seems very, very difficult to limit it >>to >>>>>below 2 degrees," Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of >the >>>>>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), >>>told >>>>>Reuters in a telephone interview. >>>>> >>>>>"But who knows? It's not beyond the capabilities of >>>>>the human race to come up with actions," he said. >>>>> >>>>>The EU, outsiders such as Norway and many >>>>>environmentalists see a 2C rise in temperatures >over >>>>>pre-industrial times as a trigger for dangerous >>>>>changes such as rising sea levels, droughts, heat >>>>>waves and floods. >>>>> >>>>>An IPCC report last month, based on the work of >>2,500 >>>>>climate scientists, blamed human activities more >>>>>clearly than ever for global warming. It said >>>>>greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels were >>>mainly >>>>>responsible. >>>>> >>>>>It projected a "best estimate" that temperatures >>>would >>>>>rise by between 1.8C and 4.0C (3.2F and 7.8F) this >>>>>century alone. >>>>> >>>>>Pachauri said temperatures had already risen by >>0.74C >>>>>(1.3F) since the Industrial Revolution in the 18th >>>>>century and would keep rising by 0.1C (0.2F) per >>>>>decade for coming decades even if emissions were >>kept >>>>>at current levels. >>>>> >>>>>An EU Commission proposal on Jan. 10, entitled >>>>>"Limiting Global Climate Change to 2C", called for >a >>>>>20-percent cut in EU emissions by 2020 or a >>>30-percent >>>>>cut if other industrialised countries were willing >>to >>>>>go further. >>>>> >>>>>ALMOST OUT OF REACH >>>>> >>>>>Former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern, >>who >>>>>issued a report last year concluding that it was >far >>>>>cheaper to act to combat climate change rather than >>>>>suffer the consequences, said this week that the 2C >>>>>goal was "almost out of reach". >>>>> >>>>>Pachauri, an Indian, said he would like the world >to >>>>>agree what dangerous climate change meant.A 1992 >>U.N. >>>>>Climate Convention set an overriding goal of >>averting >>>>>dangerous human interference with the climate >system >>>>>but gave no definition. >>>>> >>>>>"The question is 'dangerous for whom?'," Pachauri >>>>said. >>>>> >>>>>"If you look at the most vulnerable regions of the >>>>>world and ask them what dangerous is, they will say >>>>>they have reached that threshold already -- the >>small >>>>>island states, regions severely affected by >droughts >>>>>and floods," he said. >>>>> >>>>>He quoted independence leader Mahatma Gandhi as >>>>>saying: "You must always look at the effect of our >>>>>actions on the most dispossessed, the last man, the >>>>>one who is the least fortunate." >>>>> >>>>>By that yardstick, he said, dangerous had already >>>been >>>>>reached. 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