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Clinton's attacks have worked
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Date Posted: Thu, March 20, 2008 1:39:52
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Thursday, March 20, 2008
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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows John McCain’s lead growing against both potential Democratic opponents. McCain currently leads Barack Obama 49% to 42% and Hillary Clinton 51% to 41% margin (see recent daily results). African-American support for Clinton has collapsed, falling to 55% in the general election match-up. Obama, on the other hand, earns solid support from African-American voters but attracts only 36% of white voters in a match-up with McCain.
Over the past month, McCain has gained ground in Ohio, Michigan, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. Both Democrats continue to lead in New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut and California (see summary of recent state general election polling).
On the fifth anniversary of the War in Iraq, the candidates all had something to say on the topic but the politics of the issue have become much more complicated (see Video.) Joe Conason offers a commentary on The Folks Who Brought You Iraq.
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, Obama now leads Clinton 46% to 43%. Before the story broke about his former Pastor, Obama led by eight. (see recent daily results). New polling data released today shows that Clinton leads handily in West Virginia’s Presidential Primary.
A Rasmussen Reports analysis looks at the impact of Pastor Wright and Obama’s speech. Many pundits have already weighed in on the topic: Larry Sabato looks at The Crapshoot of Presidential Politics, Froma Harrop considers Divides Obama Doesn't Bridge, Dick Morris says Pastor Wright: This Too Shall Pass, Susan Estrich offers her thoughts on The Speech, Michelle Malkin Says Goodbye to the Glowbama Mystique, and Robert Novak looked at the Democratic Racial Divide.
See Obama’s Speech. See Rasmussen Reports video, Can Obama Recover from the Pastor Problem? And watch Scott Rasmussen discuss the Pastor Wright issue on WNYW New York.
On Thursday, Barack Obama’s favorable ratings are unchanged for the third straight day—48% favorable, 49% unfavorable. McCain is viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 43%. For Clinton, those numbers are 43% favorable, 55% unfavorable (see recent daily results).
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 210 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 247 to 229. Recent polling shows that, over the past month, New poll results released today show both Democrats leading in Massachusetts (see summary of recent state general election polling).
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Friday at 11:00 a.m. The results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members. See crosstabs for general election match-ups, favorable ratings and Democratic primary.
Rasmussen Markets data now give Obama a 73.7% chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at 26.1%. Market data also suggests that Obama has a 42.5% chance to become the next President. Expectations for McCain to become President are at 40.2% while Clinton’s prospects are at 18.0%. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.
Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends.
Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The general election sample is currently based upon interviews with 1,600 Likely Voters. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
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