| Subject: Four possible outcomes |
Author:
obitchecker
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Date Posted: Fri, May 01, 2009 7:20:46
In reply to:
Teller
's message, "Re: It used to be a discussion board." on Fri, May 01, 2009 12:47:09
Option 1. A thousand people die, and one person who might have been able to prevent it is waterboarded.
Option 2. A thousand people die, and no one is waterboarded.
Option 3. No one dies, and one person is waterboarded.
Option 4. No one dies, and no one is waterboarded.
I think all of us would prefer Outcome 4, but when that is simply not possible, we're left with 1, 2, and 3.
So, you would choose Option 2 rather than risk Option 1 by attempting to achieve Option 3.
If (hypothetically) the likelihood of Option 3 over Option 1 is zero (that is, the odds are 100% certain that the person would NOT talk truthfully when waterboarded), then your choice makes total sense.
If (hypothetically) the likelihood of Option 1 over Option 3 was zero (that is, the odds are 100% certain that the person WOULD talk truthfully when waterboarded), I guess (from what you said above), you would answer differently.
What likelihood would Option 3 have to have (say, 50%, 25%?) for you to consider trying for it, at risk of Option 1, rather than settling for Option 2?
I would also ask hard questions of someone who said unequivically that he WOULD support torture under the extreme-case scenario.
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