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Subject: Four possible outcomes


Author:
obitchecker
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Date Posted: Fri, May 01, 2009 7:20:46
In reply to: Teller 's message, "Re: It used to be a discussion board." on Fri, May 01, 2009 12:47:09

Option 1. A thousand people die, and one person who might have been able to prevent it is waterboarded.

Option 2. A thousand people die, and no one is waterboarded.

Option 3. No one dies, and one person is waterboarded.

Option 4. No one dies, and no one is waterboarded.

I think all of us would prefer Outcome 4, but when that is simply not possible, we're left with 1, 2, and 3.

So, you would choose Option 2 rather than risk Option 1 by attempting to achieve Option 3.

If (hypothetically) the likelihood of Option 3 over Option 1 is zero (that is, the odds are 100% certain that the person would NOT talk truthfully when waterboarded), then your choice makes total sense.

If (hypothetically) the likelihood of Option 1 over Option 3 was zero (that is, the odds are 100% certain that the person WOULD talk truthfully when waterboarded), I guess (from what you said above), you would answer differently.

What likelihood would Option 3 have to have (say, 50%, 25%?) for you to consider trying for it, at risk of Option 1, rather than settling for Option 2?

I would also ask hard questions of someone who said unequivically that he WOULD support torture under the extreme-case scenario.

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Replies:
Subject Author Date
Re: I would say 0%. And I never accused you of being a troll. I know who he is.TellerSat, May 02, 2009 12:42:16


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