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Date Posted: 21:18:43 09/15/04 Wed
Author: Jimmy
Author Host/IP: 68.107.97.246
Subject: Week 7... After the Equalizer

[editors note ] “…In far too many cases, trends became mathematical measurements of immaterial events. They can not possibly tell us what will happen in the future, because they rarely tell us what really did happen in the past. And even when they can tell us "what", they come up far short in terms of "why".” More food for thought while surfing for the definitive NFL picks page.

Billings (2-4) at Honolulu (3-3)
key matchups:

DT Alan Donnell (9 sacks) vs. G Mike Ruhl
WR Tyrone Jones (30 rec/405 yds/1 TDs) vs. CB LeRoi Jones (2 INTs)
HB Wesley Cates (519 yds/4 TDs) vs. LB Kareem Sears (37 Tackles)

prediction:

Billings 19, Honolulu 25

The Thunderbolts living on the #1 rated rushing attack powered by #1 overall draft pick Wesley Cates. The Front Page picture of CB Jimmy Lamour says it all for the defense… they leave it all on the field, but they need some help. 23.5 PPG against (17th) won’t cut it. We can’t remember the Hurricanes being .500 this late in any season. We see improvement. Perhaps most quantifiable evidence lies in the 4th rank in PPG against 18.5.) Make the Call? BIL 21, 27.
Wichita (5-1) at Colorado (4-2) ***** Game of the WEEK!
key matchups:

HB Rickey Blake (467 yds/8 TDs) vs. Wichita run D (4.3 rush avg)
DE Franklin Thomas (9 sacks) vs. T Troy Davis
WR Robert Garth (38 rec/523 yds/3 TDs) vs. CB Pat Davis
QB Jay McDonagh (9 TDs/1639 yds) vs. Colorado pass D
WR Pascal Volz (35 rec/530 yds/1 TDs) vs. CB Darryl Hammond

prediction:

Wichita 21, Colorado 24

Want 2 evenly matched teams (both 58-39-1 coming into this season) in the biggest game of the 1st half? Here ya go! Make the Call? WIC 21, COL 24.

Lincoln (1-5) at Portland (3-3)
key matchups:

DE Joe March (7 sacks) vs. T Anaslow McMillion
WR Russell Copeland (35 rec/458 yds/3 TDs) vs. CB Corey Dowden (3 INTs)
QB John Fourcade (6 TDs/1546 yds) vs. Portland pass D
WR Barry Wagner (38 rec/508 yds/0 TDs) vs. CB Pat McGuirk

prediction:

Lincoln 19, Portland 23

Lightning finally get off the schnied. The Prowlers working uphill for division title this season. Make the Call? LIN 17, POR 23.

Springfield (3-3) at Fargo (4-2)***** Game of the WEEK! (backup)
key matchups:

QB Kurt Warner (7 TDs/1562 yds) vs. Springfield pass D
DE Terrence Simmons (9 sacks) vs. T Mike O'Donnell
WR Alfonzo Browning (32 rec/424 yds/0 TDs) vs. CB Dennison Robinson
HB Brian Edmonds (436 yds/3 TDs) vs. LB Jerry Gerth (39 Tackles)

prediction:

Springfield 20, Fargo 23

The Slayers are currently in a battle for the final play off slot in the NFC. The Freeze occupy the slot right above them. Neither team is totally out of the division title race. Here’s to an Alfred E. Nueman-esque “Pressure? What pressure!?!” Make the Call? Pick ‘em.

Black Hills (2-4) at Louisiana (4-2)
key matchups:

HB Rayshawn Askew (470 yds/2 TDs) vs. Black Hills run D (3.6 rush avg)
TE Michael Montoya (35 rec/549 yds/5 TDs) vs. LB Marc Kimnach
QB Michael Proctor (8 TDs/1557 yds) vs. Louisiana pass D
HB Raphael Cooper (415 yds/5 TDs) vs. LB Miguel Merritt (38 Tackles)
TE Eric Alford (38 rec/430 yds/2 TDs) vs. LB Miguel Merritt

prediction:

Black Hills 20, Louisiana 26

This used to be a major match-up. The Machine recent slide diminishes this game somewhat. Louisiana may be the great pretender. Still, it was predictable no matter who started at QB, it added up to a loss. Back to basics, D’Orazio starts. Make the Call? BLH 24, LOU 26.

Mobile (1-5) at Austin (4-2)
key matchups:

WR Mercury Hayes (47 rec/585 yds/4 TDs) vs. CB Richard Rodgers
WR Bernard Edwards (33 rec/503 yds/1 TDs) vs. CB David Knott

prediction:

Mobile 16, Austin 26

The Seagulls are going where no GM likes to go: down and out. Ownership and management need to sell the future. The team grumbles and complains, they play less than their best on the field. Other teams have gone down this path. Steel Valley blew up their operation, and were expected to contend this season. That’s not happening. Fort Wayne did it, and are enjoying a modicum of success this season with some promise for the future. Louisiana tried to do it on the run. A 5-9 2004 season, and a poor start to 2005 prodded impatient ownership to scrap that with massive trades. Beast faithful were rewarded with moderate success thereafter. Black Hills is trying to do it on the run. They’re OK, but will suffer from their norm of success for a while. The point is, it’s never easy to start over. It takes total insanity or real courage. The Mobile Seagulls fall into the later category. The Knights just keep rolling along, most of the time a playing a roll in their division race and making the playoffs. This season is no different. They are winning in their division, which makes them a threat for the division title and the play offs. Make the Call? MOB 16, AUS 26.

St Louis (3-3) at Mississippi (4-2)
key matchups:

TE Chinedu Achebe (44 rec/476 yds/0 TDs) vs. LB Ansel George
TE Rufus Bess (31 rec/396 yds/2 TDs) vs. LB Rodney Jiles

prediction:

St Louis 18, Mississippi 21

The Renegades ventured into Steel Valley (still risky business, despite the Smash on an unexpected down slide [HELLO, THE SEASON HAS BEGUN DUDES!?!]) and edges Portland at home the last 2 games. We say that’s moxy Super Shigg never dreamed of. In fact, we think it’s worthy of a team based in Green Bay. Our apologies to QB Andy Kelly, who broke through last week for a big time W. Here’s hoping you got another one in you this week. The road to the AFC GULF division now goes through Mississippi… and it will be that way the rest of this season. Long a defensive stalwart, they are plucky enough with vested veterans on offense to beat any team in this league at home or on the road. They are at their best at home. Make the Call? STL 18, MIS 21.

Dayton (4-2) at Madison (3-3)
key matchups:

QB Joshua Wallwork (11 TDs/1506 yds) vs. Madison pass D
HB Rashaan Dumas (381 yds/5 TDs) vs. LB Jarvis Spencer (42 Tackles)
WR Anthony Payton (37 rec/433 yds/4 TDs) vs. CB Mike Morris (2 INTs)

prediction:

Dayton 22, Madison 21

Never saw a Flyers team ripped as bad as last week, especially at their place. Bbbbaadddd JUJU… here’s hoping that juju doesn’t carry over to the opponents of the Wildcats the rest of this season. Madison once again pulled out their shirt tails and got down to it. This rivalry is an old story. Make the call? Pick ‘em.

Steel Valley (2-4) at Fort Wayne (2-4)
key matchups:

HB Leotis Flowers (447 yds/2 TDs) vs. LB Bobby Jurasin (39 Tackles)
WR Calvin Schexnayder (51 rec/762 yds/3 TDs) vs. CB Clevan Thomas

prediction:

Steel Valley 19, Fort Wayne 22

On paper, a ho hum who cares game. Nothing could be further from the truth. Steel Valley put a lot of effort and time into building a winner. Last week’s W over Honolulu at home is their most encouraging effort to date. The overall results the past 2 seasons suck. The Safari are at least showing signs of life. We see dedicated ownership, albeit ignorant of the happenings that are the FIFL, at work. Make the Call? CAN’T call it any different than the game… and that’s damning for the Smash…(sigh)

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