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Date Posted: 12:43:43 08/18/05 Thu
Author: siempre33
Subject: Rob Kirby article comments

I thought so much of the article you wrote that I posted it at Mish's SI site....a subsequent msg. exchange drew this from him...

"I am saying the analysis presented was flawed in several places.
Enormously flawed.

1) Shipping capacity is up way way more than the 1.5% he said
2) China is slowing
3) It is preposterous to claim that shipping rates would fall over a 4 month period as a result of a "few cargoes" of oil not taken by China
4) The conspiracy theories about ridiculously low interest rates were also absurd

That does not mean that China is going to crash, it just means his arguments as presented involving a big bluff or conspiracy were laughable

The simple explanation is
1) There was far more shipping capacity added than the article said
2) That caapcity in conjunction with slowing worldwide growth explains the drop in the BDI

Conspiracy theories and Bluffs by China would not cause the BDI to drop from 4500 to 1700 when there is a reasonable logical explanation for it.

That is what I believe I can prove.
Mish"

here's his blogspot site....
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

his name is Michael Shedlow & he has quite a following, or so I gather from reading/posting @ SI....thought you might care to respond....
regards, siempre..

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