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Date Posted: 20:28:06 08/05/06 Sat
Author:

siempre33
Subject: too much to lose

Posted: Sat Aug 05, 2006 5:28 am by DrSpec

Hi Folks,

Though far from being an expert or even especially well informed politically and historically, I will venture my current opinion on all this with the caveat that it is constantly subject to change as I learn more.

As a child of about 8 years old, my family moved from the northeast to southeast US. The "language barrier" took a while to overcome, but I remember vividly being asked by a fellow my age, "Are you a Yankee or a Rebel?" First of all, I just barely knew what the Civil War was, and secondly I found it remarkable that this kid not only knew about it, but had strong feelings about it 100 years after the fact and was part of a culture that still used it to classify and make assessments about people.

In the Northeast, the Civil war was just a piece of history. In the South, it was a sore wound that was never fully healed. Over the years, I realized that as the prevailing force, the North, just went on with life as they saw it. Much of the South, in contrast, was decimated and humiliated. This sort of thing changes people, even to the point of showing up in the attitudes of small children several generations later, and even though those families were living a good life.

The U.S. Civil War is small potatoes compared to the history of the Middle East - both recent and distant past. Because Christianity grew out of Judaism, it tends to see itself as an advancement. Many Christians do not know that Muslims tend to see themselves as the next advancement over Christianity. These are gross generalizations, but I think they are reasonably accurate. As "chosen ones", some Muslims find it difficult to swallow oppression at the hands of the Jews and Christians. Everybody hates oppression, but when you see yourself as superior, it is particularly galling that reality is not lining up with your worldview.

As others know better than I, there is a long history of wars among the Jews, Christians, and Muslims. The Crusades make the U.S. Civil War look like a mere skirmish. So, we have all this pent up cultural/religious animosity coming from many directions. Again, the Christians mostly prevailed over the Muslims, so like the Northerners in the U.S., they don't think much about this history. The Muslims, in contrast, can hardly stop thinking about it.

Against this backdrop, it is not too hard to see why the establishment of Israel as a country did not sit too well with many of the Muslims. Here before their eyes was a brazen symbol of Muslim inferiority smack in their faces. Jews and Christians are infidels - why would God favor them with so much success? As we know, there is vast poverty in many areas of the Middle East (aside from the decadent wealth of the rulers), and suddenly here appears the Jews who arrive with superior technology and living conditions, not to mention partnership with the Christians in the U.S. and worldwide recognition.

Meanwhile, the U.S. empire rolled into full swing after WWII. They manipulated leaders where ever there were resources they wanted, and if that didn't work, they installed the leaders that would do their bidding. The Middle East was suddenly thrust into the 20th century, but not as equal participants who had earned a place at the table. Rather, they were there to be exploited, though the leaders didn't complain because with the bargain came riches and partial modernization. Certainly the west wasn't following the "Prime Directive" (remember Star Trek, anyone?). Here it is as presented on some web page - I assume this is accurate:

Quote:
As the right of each sentient species to live in accordance with its normal cultural evolution is considered sacred, no Star Fleet personnel may interfere with the healthy development of alien life and culture. Such interference includes the introduction of superior knowledge, strength, or technology to a world whose society is incapable of handling such advantages wisely. Star Fleet personnel may not violate this Prime Directive, even to save their lives and/or their ship unless they are acting to right an earlier violation or an accidental contamination of said culture. This directive takes precedence over any and all other considerations, and carries with it the highest moral obligation.

The Middle East was pulled up hard by this influx of technology and money. Let's also not forget that the structure and boundaries of the countries there were artificially created by the British decades earlier. These are proud peoples - cultures that have fallen hard, but were once glorious in their own day. Like the Greeks, Romans, and others, the Persian, Arabian, and Mesopotamian cultures brought much to the world. But in the 20th century, they found themselves to be poor, and then exploited by the west. All this does not sit well.

Have you seen the pictures of the current Iranian President when he was a college student participating in the storming of the U.S. embassy during the Carter Administration? This was the big turning point for Iran. They threw out the installed ruler and took their country back from the west. That same generation is now in power and they are not dumb. They know how much power they have through their oil, through the development of nuclear weapons, and through their control of the Strait of Hormuz where oil flows from Saudi Arabia.

They resent the fact that oil is priced in U.S. dollars, they resent the fact that the U.S. calls the shots militarily, and they see themselves as the rightful leaders of the Middle East, fulfilling their proud heritage. But always and every day, they are faced with the presence of Israel, which challenges everything they want to believe.

There is a whole scientific study of underdogs. I don't know much about it, but have read a few articles. One particularly funny one was about some male moles that create a special harem chamber and keep all the other male moles away. But the underdog bachelor moles have devised a tricky way to burrow into the female chambers and mate before the big male even knows it happened. Underdogs seem to have an uncanny way of identifying the weaknesses of the big shots.

In the case of Iran and the U.S., Iran sees that the empire has two Achilles' heels. First, it must have massive supplies of oil to survive, and second, it must keep control of the world monetary situation in order maintain its position of wealth and strength. With so much lost from the U.S. in terms of manufacturing, educational superiority, etc., it simply cannot maintain its world leader position without taxing the rest of the world. And that it does, every minute of every day as it pumps out more dollars that it gets to spend while devaluing the dollars that everyone around the world is holding. It is precisely analogous to the situation where a company whose stock you are holding continuously issues more stock thereby diluting the value of your holdings. You paid for your stock, but every day it is worth less and less.

Iran and other Muslim groups in the region know all about this stuff and it sticks in their craw. But this knowledge is not the only ingredient in the scalding cauldron that is brewing over there. As in any culture, there are ambitious people around - people whose ambition supercedes any sense of decency. These people look around and figure out how to get power. Let's make a list of what a power-hungry person in the Middle East might see as he scans the horizon looking for cultural weaknesses to exploit:

1. Long history of low cultural self esteem
2. Cultural/religious belief in superiority
3. Poverty and desperation on the part of much of the populace
4. Religion that can be twisted to recruit suicide and other fighters
5. Israel as a symbol and scapegoat for all that is wrong
6. The U.S. as the mega symbol, the "Great Satan"
7. Poverty while the wealthy U.S. uses their oil

You can find leaders at almost every corner because there are so many factors to exploit. Religion is a huge one, because many Muslims are educated under radical Islam and there are many passages in the Koran that leaders can use to justify almost anything. Now, with Israel bombing Lebanon to smithereens, a whole new recruiting factor has been added. Were the Iranian leaders smart enough to plan all this? Probably. They are hungry for power.

We truly are at a horrible impasse. Oil from the Middle East is not optional for the U.S. Neither is dollar dominance. The current U.S. administration has chosen a seemingly unwinable path of violence. Today I was imagining how the picture of Bush on the aircraft carrier declaring "Mission Accomplished" will be seen in the future. What a hideous reminder of hubris and lack of insight.

This whole conflict is not about kidnapped soldiers or anything similar. It is about Iran making a bid for regional leadership and recognition on the world scene. After the U.S. foolishly destroyed the main force holding Iran in check (Iraq), the Iranian leaders see nothing to stop them from their goals. They have created alliances with Russia and China. They have developed powerful weapons like the high-speed torpedoes demonstrated a few months back. They are developing nuclear weapons and snubbing their noses at the U.N. It is all a grown up and magnified version of taking over the U.S. embassy and throwing out U.S. leadership as they did in the 70's.

Remarkably, one of the commentators on "This week with George Stephanopoulos" last Sunday said that the conflict was a "proxy war between the U.S. and Iran." Take note, everybody, it's not often that you hear the truth on the U.S. media. George Will, typically one to play down problems, was comparing the situation to 1914 at the start of WWI.

I think the reason Iran is acting now is that they see a special opportunity with the U.S. weakened by the Iraq war and the U.S. reputation marred by the war and many other factors. They know the U.S. economy is teetering on the brink and the dollar is walking the edge of a precipice on a rainy night. Neither the U.S. nor Israel can afford to lose. Israel must prevail for its very existence in the region. Everything that the U.S. IS will be changed if Iran gains Mideast dominance, and especially if it gains nuclear weapons. There is much unrest in Iran about a range of issues. Without this war to direct the attention of the populace away from the internal problems, there would eventually be a change in leadership. The stakes for all parties concerned are enormous.

If there is a reasonable resolution to all this, it will be only because the major players decide they have too much to lose by following the path of continually escalating violence. That's something to hope for.

Paul

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Replies:

Re: too much to lose -- nogtans, 22:49:45 08/06/06 Sun