Wake up Macedonia and go ahead! -- Napred Makedonija!! Cmrt za Shiptari.

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Date Posted: 13:24:27 07/23/01 Mon
Author: Tinko
Subject: Wake up Macedonia and go ahead!

This forum shows signs of sanity and pragmatism.
So good luck!

In view of the crisis I would elaborate on a few points.

1) Macedonia is de facto in a state of war or very close to it. To win a war you need to find allies and define your priorities.

Who are the possible allies for Macedonia in this internal Macedono-Albanian ethnic conflict?

Macedonia has four neighbours: Serbia/Kossovo, Albania proper, Greece and Bulgaria.

Serbia has its own problems: internal and international. It had a similar problem and still has it with Albanians and proceeded in a stupid way. Serbia might be of help, but I am afraid Serbia might be tempted to push here Albanians into Macedonia to relieve her burden. However Serbs have had experience with UCK and it is reasonable to reach an agreement on tohg control of Kossovo? Macedonian borders so as to block the influx of Albanian guerillas.
Hoever, Serbia has practically no emotional link to the cultural heritage of Macedonia except for pretension on certain parts od Macedonia.
This is an ambiguous ally.

Albania. Albania has e deffinite interest in the protection of her folks in Macedonia so she would try to help them in any way possible. Yet Albania does not have resources to sustain a long term military aid to ANO and will tend to play on the international arena. While Albania is not a resolute ennemy, it is deffinitely not a devoted friend.

Greece: Greece has Albanians so she would be doing her best to prevent similar developments at home. However Greece has also Bulgaro/Macedonian minorities and would be also an ambiguous partner. She might try to get rid of her Albanians and dipatch them whereever possible - Macedonia included.

Bulgaria: Bulgaria and Bulgarians consider Macedonias the same nation ethnicity and language, though dialectal. For Bulgarians Macedonia has a historic value and many families have relatives on each side. Bulgaria for sure is not indifferent to what happens to Ohrid, Bitola and Macedonia in general. Unfortunately relations with Bulgaria are poorly developed because of disputes over Macedonian Identity - a totally unnecessary ideological conflict which ultimately turned a devouted friend into a cautious friend rather embittered, though.

So priority No. 1: Improve relations with Bulgaria.
Bulgaria will deffinitely not attack, invade or 'enslave' Macedonia. These are renditions of sick minds and misathropes. Even if all Macedonians declare Bulgarian ethnic feelings, Bulgaria would make no move for re-unification with Macedonia or whatsoever of the sort unless Macedonians insist for that.

In passing let me say that due to this oligophrenic 'identity' warfare Macedonia lost 10 years fighting with the imaginary Bulgarian enemy instead of getting armed, trained by Bulgaria, improve economic ties, negotiate an access to the Black Sea, the Danube river ports, set upo joint enterprises and try to work out a long term strategy how to compensate for the loss of the forma Yugoslav market.
So this is what Macedonia should do now not neglecting the possible benefits with ties form the other neigbours.

2) If Macedonia manages to re-affirm and drastically improve
realtions with Bulgaria she will have a reservoir of great popular support from Bulgaria. At least because the majority of past emmigration from Macedonia is in Bulgaria and is Bulgarian by feeling but sympathetic to Macedonia.

3) Macedonians should formulate maximum and minimum objectives. She should decide what she wants to do with the Albanians and how to proceed with them.
I doubt that it would be possible to push them out of Macedonia. The result be that the Kossovo disaster wil be repeated and this would be ruinous for Macedonia.

If the Macedonians feel that they cannot live together with the Albanians then perhaps it is better to federalise. Federalization will limit the territorial resource of the ALbanians and their future demographic expansion may be blocked and limited.

If the Macedonians think that this is unacceptable, then they should know that in the present day arrangement they run the risk of being demographically overrun by the Albanians over several tens of years and tensions will be permanent and the country may face several similar conflicts which foreign powers will gladly use to move in and put a foot on the Balkans.

In all cases Macedonians must do their best (this is true for Bulgaria) to improve drastically their demography, stop emmigration and drastically improve economy. For this you need a backing and more markets. If your long term plans are coordinated with Bulgaria this will be of help. Reviving trade with other neighbours is also a must.

4)No matter which model you chose Albanian pretensions must be cooled down as much as possible. Avoid ethnic cleansing since then the world will be against you and ultimately you will lose.

A prolonger localized warfare in ethnically mixed regions or Albanian held regions may lead to permanent emmigration of Albanians out of country. This cannot be a permanent solution though.

It seems to me, something will have to be ceded to them to buy time.

This time you would need to reverse trends. Remember Albania and Kossovo have no great resources to help the rebels in Macedonia. So you should avoid the international community to come to help the Albanians. Do not repeat the Serb error.

However for Macedonia to survive it needs backing.
If Bulgaria is doing better and you are in good relations with Bulgaria you profit. Remember noone in BG insists that you declare Bulgarians. We just would like to see the end of cretenism coming from Macedonia in the form of lunatic accusations about Tartar enslavement etc.

Instead of Kristalnacht adventures it is far better to somehow convince the Albanians to sell out property in towns like Ohrida, Bitola etc and leave in peace. You might hate them as much as possible but do this in peace. Otherwise you will bring the international community to help them and then Bulgaria cannot do anything.

Do your best to boost economic growth in peaceful areas.
In troubled areas Albanians will have to leave because of unemplyment. And it will be their fault for this, because the rebels are actually supported by the Albanian population.

Very important is to start a tough policy on drug dealers.
These are basically Albanians and this is a source of income to finance their military agenda. Here you can appeal to the International community for cooperation.
The crush on Albanian Narcocartels should be uncompromising followed byr expropriation of any property possessed by Narco-dealers. Also real estate property bought during the last ten years should be re-investigated and if the legal income of the owner cannot be proved land should be taken by the state.

You should not rely one one simple instrument for solving the problem.

Mistrust all politicians who fly anti-Bulgarian flags!

These guys made you lose ten precious years with hymeric ennemies. They have an agenda of their own.
Mind it! If dusing these ten years Macedonia was aremd and trained by BG, the Albanians would not have dared to be so insolent.

Yet the important thing is to know that this problem is the result of disproportionate demographic growth combined with cultural incompatibility between Albanians and Macedonians.
Also the errors of the Serbs in Kossovo which brought international help for the Albanians and boosted their confidence beyond limits.

Last but not least. Whatever the issue do not forget the you will always have the Albanians as neigbours and you will need good relations with Albania for an access to the Adriatic as you will neded Bulgaria for an access to the Black sea.

You may be angry and frustrated with NATO, yet Bg is in good terms with NATO so make use of this to win support from the Big Players.
Forget emotions.
Think big and long term.
Win friends and stop creating enemies in the most stupid ways possible as in the case with your relations with BG.

Tinko

P.S. I suggest all messages which inspire hatred between Bulgarians and Macedonians be left without considerations and respose. Do not engage in oligophrenic discussions.
They will inevitably bring oligophrenic results.

Tinko

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