VoyForums
[ Show ]
Support VoyForums
[ Shrink ]
VoyForums Announcement: Programming and providing support for this service has been a labor of love since 1997. We are one of the few services online who values our users' privacy, and have never sold your information. We have even fought hard to defend your privacy in legal cases; however, we've done it with almost no financial support -- paying out of pocket to continue providing the service. Due to the issues imposed on us by advertisers, we also stopped hosting most ads on the forums many years ago. We hope you appreciate our efforts.

Show your support by donating any amount. (Note: We are still technically a for-profit company, so your contribution is not tax-deductible.) PayPal Acct: Feedback:

Donate to VoyForums (PayPal):

Login ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 1234 ]


[ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

Date Posted: 20:39:36 10/03/03 Fri
Author: 簡Sir
Subject: 大市續升成交背馳

華爾街股巿持續反彈,但升勢放緩。道指收9487.8,升18.6,9RSI 受制升軌,道指升軌已失守,9月由9686點急跌至9230點,共跌456點,反彈0.618,後抽阻力9511點,周四最高曾見9511點現爭持【圖一】,後巿切忌下破9月底部9230點,否則10月至11月(2)浪下望8000-8200點。

  港股昨天續升,最高11652點,升106點,出現回吐【圖二】,全日收11608點,升62點;成交只有一百八十餘億元。下文分析10月大勢。

  (1這次牛巿一期由8332點暫時升至昨天最高11652點,共升3320點,升幅40%,比預期強!主要是8月「自由行」及CEPA及9月港元上升,使港股火上加油。

  (2港股一向跟隨美股,由於道指及納指9月由頭跌至尾,已啟示港股稍後將跟隨。恆指暫時仍在尋頂,須下破本周低點11104點,才正式確認(1)浪見頂。但由於10762點(9月底部)展開的5-v浪上升,已發展至i、ii、iii、iv及v浪,反映升勢已近尾聲。昨天出現待變「陀螺」,下周一守11540點之上收巿仍強,反之下試11250點。

  ▃升幅巨大的地產股昨天開始回吐。新地(016)累積升幅104%,9RSI持續背馳,昨天跌二元五角,收六十五元五角,下周如跌則利淡。今年5月最低三十六元,曾指出形成待升的「頭肩底」右肩;同時強力睇好恆地(012),指出也形成待升的右肩,當時最低十九元。本周最高三十五元一角,累積升幅94%,9RSI 背馳,昨天收三十四元九角,形成「十字」,均宜逢高減持了。

   信置(083)累積升幅121%,昨天「烏雲蓋頂」,收四元二角七點五仙,周一如跌,則有見頂的可能性,但如見三元八角,料強力反彈。

   長實(001)昨天收六十五元二角五仙,陰陽燭「淡友反攻」,下周一宜升不宜跌,9RSI大幅背馳,反映回吐力增。

   ▄10月期指昨天續升,最高11674點,升94點現回吐,全日收報11647點,升67點。上升阻力11600-11800點(月線圖保歷加通道頂部,恆指相若),下周一如守11570點之上收巿,仍強,反之下試11300點。

  ▅ 國企指數升 39.8,收 3307 點,3400-3350點料有爭持。

  ▆紅籌指數升13點,收1247點,9月頂部1266點水平料爭持。

  (7一般而言,大巿成交創近期新高,反覆一下再升至新高位,但如果成交背馳,便有回吐。上周四恆指最高11445點,當天成交二百一十三億元,回吐至11104點便回升,但升至昨巿最高11652點,如果扣除思捷(330)配售金額十五億元,大巿實際成交金額只有一百七十餘億元,使11600點或稍高有短期回吐壓力。周五美股動向對下周港股極具影響力。

[ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

Post a message:
This forum requires an account to post.
[ Create Account ]
[ Login ]
[ Contact Forum Admin ]


Forum timezone: GMT-8
VF Version: 3.00b, ConfDB:
Before posting please read our privacy policy.
VoyForums(tm) is a Free Service from Voyager Info-Systems.
Copyright © 1998-2019 Voyager Info-Systems. All Rights Reserved.