Blowing Big Leads in Men's College Basketball -- <h1>IVY LEAGUE SPORTS BOARD</h1>

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Subject: Blowing Big Leads in Men's College Basketball

Author:
An Observer

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Date Posted: 12:42:14 01/19/26 Mon

I see that Princeton ran out to a 17-point lead against Harvard and then blew that lead, losing in overtime. I also recall the many other blown 17- and 19-point leads over the last few seasons. (Princeton seems to be the beneficiary of a lot of these, but a victim against Yale.)

Interestingly, they happen in Ivy men's basketball all the time. On the women's side, teams blow 13- and 15-point leads, but less often. A lead in the upper teens is safer on the women's side on the Ivy League.

What's the takeaway here?

First of all, 17- and 19-point leads simply aren't safe. There's a big variance in contemporary basketball that results from the ubiquitous focus on the three-point shot.

If you let a bunch of Division I shooters let loose from behind the arc completely unguarded, some of the time, they will make less than 10% and some of the time, they will make more than 50%. That's the nature of a 22-foot shot.

If you run out to a big lead making 50% of your three-point shots, as Princeton did in the first half against Harvard, there is NO REASON whatsoever to expect continued success like that in the second half. Regression to the mean is a mathematical reality.

It makes no sense to start taking the air out of the ball halfway through the second half. Whatever you have been doing has been working. Whatever it is, keep doing it until your opponent shows that they can stop it.

The prevent offense in basketball works like the prevent defense in football. It just lets your opponent back into the game.

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Replies:

[> Subject: 1999 Princeton Laughs at a 17-point lead
Author: Go Green [ Edit \| View ]	Date Posted: 14:56:02 01/19/26 Mon https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1999/02/11/down-by-27-princeton-roars-past-penn/18df3228-66b5-45b5-8d0d-eb3d8d5240b9/ Meanwhile, unless Brown gets super-hot, it appears that Cornell's streak of giving up 100+ points to Ivy opponents will end today at three.

[> Subject: Re: Blowing Big Leads in Men's College Basketball
Author: An Observer [ Edit \| View ]	Date Posted: 23:20:09 01/27/26 Tue Previously undefeated (20-0) and #3 ranked Nebraska shot 10-19 from three-point distance in the first half and 1-13 from behind the arc in the second half. No longer undefeated.