Columbia should be in the mix for a seed in the IL Men's Tourney. -- <h1>IVY LEAGUE SPORTS BOARD</h1>

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Subject: Columbia should be in the mix for a seed in the IL Men's Tourney.

Author:
Valmas (Stoic)

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Date Posted: 15:28:34 10/08/24 Tue
In reply to: An Observer 's message, "Re: Men’s Bball" on 14:30:08 10/08/24 Tue

Columbia expects at least seven experienced upperclassmen to be part of this year's men's basketball team; including IL Player of the Year candidate and one-thousand point scorer, Geronimo Rubio De La Rosa. H, P and P all lose key pieces in transfer situations; Brown to injury; and Cornell loses their wunderkind coach, the great Brian Earl. So I like the Lions' chances to at least finish the regular season in the league's top tier.

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[> [> [> Subject: Re: Columbia should be in the mix for a seed in the IL Men's Tourney.

Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 16:02:01 10/08/24 Tue

I am absolutely not saying that the optimism in Morningside Heights is misplaced. Having led with a Columbia disclaimer, I think that, broadly across many sports, one recurring point made by bullish analysts with which I most *disagree* is a lot of returning starters from a team with a losing record.

Players should get better over the course of their four years -- yes. But players should get better at all programs, including competitors. In my observation, the biggest jumps are made by non-stars at top programs who have the talent to make the leap, but in the prior season were sitting behind a superior starter.

It's less common to see a team finish 4-10 and then have four or five starters from that squad step up to a stronger year. They were starting last year. In the words of Dennis Green, "They are who we thought they were."

None of this is specific to Columbia. But having brought up the point, I'd be more optimistic about the non-stars on Megan Griffith's team stepping up once Abbey Hsu and other seniors take their diplomas to the Mohegan Sun and beyond.

I believe that P only lost to the transfer portal the player who transferred to Western Carolina. Weren't people on this board saying that Jack Scott pulled a Spencer Gloger?

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[> [> [> [> Subject: AO: Your points are well taken, as per usual.

Author:
Valmas (Stoic)
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Date Posted: 16:48:12 10/08/24 Tue

Sorry - in the prior post, I meant H (Malik Mack), Y (Danny Wolf) and P (Vernon Collins and Zach Martini) to transfer situations. Now, Martini did graduate; but, with a year of eligibility remaining, he also transferred to Rutgers.

And, yes, Columbia was most recently 4-10 in IL league play; but I prefer to look at that team as ten points shy of 7-7; just 10 points was the entire differential in two losses to Harvard and one to Brown; and Harvard's Mack and Brown's Owusu-Anane - both instrumental in all three of those narrow Columbia losses - will be missing from the upcoming IL season. So, Columbia, with one all-league performer and a solid supporting cast, can complete this next IL season at 7-7 (at worst) and a place at the post-season table.

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[> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: AO: Your points are well taken, as per usual.

Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 17:02:26 10/08/24 Tue

Thank you, Michael, for your kind words.

I really like your point that the team lost a lot of close games and was only ten points shy of being 7-7. In basketball, the goal is to work for good shots and deny them to your opponent. Having taken an assortment of both good and bad shots, sometimes they go in and sometimes they don't. That's especially true now that we are so three-point oriented. One or two shots that luckily bank in off glass inevitably will play a role in how a game plays out.

I would love to see data about how teams which have an extreme +/- record in close games (say, within three points) in a given season do in similarly close games the following year.

Coaching and game management in the final minutes of a contest is a skill of the staff which carries over from season to season. There's a reason why some teams win the close ones. But some of it is simply serendipity.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: The tale of the tape.

Author:
Valmas (Stoic)
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Date Posted: 18:07:54 10/08/24 Tue

Under the present-day Columbia men's basketball coach, the team has gone 10-16, in Ivy League games decided by five or less points. That may not seem impressive (38% WPCT.), but it's better than the WPCT. for his overall IL record and for his complete record as Columbia head coach - each of which hovers at or below 30%. So, it can be said that he's shown an ability to win a portion of the close ones. Again, I believe a good number of the member schools have suffered significant personnel losses; and I have the personal knowledge allowing me to define the current Columbia seniors as, to a man, tough-minded and good character human beings. There's still a place in this world for people like that to succeed and I believe they'll use their final opportunity as student-athletes to demonstrate just that!

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