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Subject: Re: YouTube Video on Math Behind Going For Two When Down 14 Author: sparman [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ] Date Posted: 23:39:21 10/24/24 Thu In reply to: An Observer 's message, "YouTube Video on Math Behind Going For Two When Down 14" on 21:04:41 10/24/24 Thu It's nice to see this analysis, but yet again, it is an exercise in the abstract, as it is based upon your team operating at the required efficiencies in that specific game moment. For example, I imagine a team's actual probabilities fluctuate somewhat with the pressure of the situation and whether the game is at home or away, and I have trouble accepting that the performance level is the same for Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson, versus Deshaun Watson or Jacoby Brissett. I question too whether the probabilities generically are the same at the college level versus the pro level (after all, setting aside jokes about college players being professional players, you expect pros to be better and to have better coaching/play calling). Remember there is a non-zero chance that a 2-pt try results not just in failure to convert, but in a turnover leading to 2 points for the defensive team that would put the game out ofmreach [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

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[> [> Subject: Re: YouTube Video on Math Behind Going For Two When Down 14 Author: sparman [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 23:44:54 10/24/24 Thu It's nice to see this analysis, but yet again, it is an exercise in the abstract, as it is based upon your team operating at the required efficiencies in that specific game moment. For example, I imagine a team's actual probabilities fluctuate somewhat with the pressure of the situation and whether the game is at home or away, and I have trouble accepting that the performance level is the same for Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson, versus Deshaun Watson or Jacoby Brissett. I question too whether the probabilities generically are the same at the college level versus the pro level (after all, setting aside jokes about college players being professional players, you expect pros to be better and to have better coaching/play calling). Remember there is a small but non-zero chance that a 2-pt try results not just in failure to convert, but in a turnover leading to 2 points for the defensive team that would put the game out of reach. I am curious to know the percentage of such turnovers versus blocked kicks that result in TDs going the other way. Probably an immaterial difference, but should assess as long as one is using analytics. [ Post a Reply to This Message ]

[> [> [> Subject: Two-Point Success Rates Author: An Observer [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 14:05:21 10/25/24 Fri To answer your question, sparman, in the NFL, two-point conversions are attempted from the two-yard line and 47.5% have been successful in "recent" seasons. In college football, conversions are attempted from the three-yard line and 47.9% are successful. Obviously, this varies dramatically by team and by game situation. If I think that I have the better team, I'm much more willing to take my chances in overtime. As I've said before, if I am Yale with Vargas or Princeton with Lovett, I would go for two almost any time that I was ahead. [ Post a Reply to This Message ]