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8pm update - Seats won: Labor 18, Coalition 36, in doubt 3. Vote counted 3.5 per cent
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Date Posted: 27/11/10 1:30:48
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Swing to Coalition, independent MP falls November 27, 2010 - 8:12PM
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8pm update - Seats won: Labor 18, Coalition 36, in doubt 3. Vote counted 3.5 per cent
Labor's Maxine Morand has conceded in the knife-edge seat of Mount Waverley.
And the state's only independent MP, Craig Ingram, who would have been crucial in any negotiations in the event of a hung parliament, has been soundly defeated by the Nationals' Tim Bull in Gippsland East.
Advertisement: Story continues below Early counting in the state election points towards a significant swing towards Ted Baillieu's Liberal-Nationals Coalition.
Despite the small number of votes counted, Labor appears to be in trouble in outer metropolitan Melbourne and some regional seats.
Federal Labor MP Bill Shorten said he remained confident Premier John Brumby would retain power.
‘‘There would appear to be some swing against the Labor government, but as real estate agents always say, it’s all about location, location, location,’’ Mr Shorten told Sky News.
‘‘The big question is where has the swing occurred, by how much and in which seats? It could be possible to have occurred in some areas where Labor has some margin and can lose a few votes and still hold the seat."
An hour after polls closed, with only 3.5 per cent of 3.5 million votes counted, the Victorian Electoral Commission said the Coalition had 42.21 per cent of the vote and Labor 29.29 per cent.
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Counting got underway at 6pm with one media outlet reporting bad exit-poll news for the Brumby government bid's for a historic fourth term.
And the state's electoral commissoner says voter turnout may be down as much as 2 per cent, with storms and long queues keeping voters from booths.
Sky News predicted a Coalition victory with an 8.5 per cent swing against Labor, based on exit polling. Sky says its research gives the Coalition 54 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, compared to 46 per cent for Labor.
Sky News said it polled more than 3000 voters in 18 marginal seats.
But, with the latest voter-intention polls showing a tight race, the state's record-breaking number of early voters could delay a result for days.
The Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) has received 550,000 early votes - more than double the number since the last election - but none will be counted until early Monday morning, a VEC spokeswoman says.
With some marginal seats receiving almost 9000 early votes and the latest polls showing a late Coalition surge leading to a potential cliffhanger, it could mean the seats that decide who forms government won't be finalised until next week.
"It might mean we don't have a provisional result on the night," the spokeswoman told AAP on Saturday.
Tonight, Victorian Electoral Commissioner Steve Tully said heavy rain might have kept some people away from polling booths, with turnout possibly down by about one or two per cent.
"Generally it has affected large groups of people coming out together and we have had some queuing issues, but we’ve done the best we can with that,’’ Mr Tully told the ABC.
About 5000 people cast early votes in Melbourne's inner-city seats, which are a close contest between Labor and the Greens.
The seat of Melbourne has 6138 early votes cast while Brunswick has 5521.
Other marginal seats like Bendigo East have seen a massive 8949 early votes cast, which all won't be counted until Monday.
Electoral Commissioner Steve Tully says with so many early votes it only makes sense to count them next week.
"All of the 101 early voting centres will have votes for most, if not all, districts and the reconciliation process must be carefully conducted," he said in a statement.
"Throwing more people at it increases the risk of error. An accurate result is our focus."
Election officials will be focusing on preference votes cast on election day, then two-candidate-preferred votes once the polls close.
Monday morning will see 17,000 election officials return to work to begin counting early votes.
But a further hurdle will be the growing number of postal votes, which can arrive up to nine days after election day and still be counted.
New laws that allow voters who missed the enrolment deadline to cast a vote on the spot will add tens of thousands more votes to be counted next week.
The spokeswoman says the VEC will be doing the best it can to get a result on election night, but if not, officials will be back at it on Monday morning.
She said a final result was expected by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Neither of the leaders have cast their vote yet.
Liberal leader Ted Baillieu is expected to vote in his electorate of Hawthorn at 11am (AEDT), while Premier John Brumby - whose electorate is in Broadmeadows - will venture outside his home territory when he votes in Prahran at the same time.
The latest Newspoll showed the Liberal-Nationals on 51.1 per cent to Labor's 48.9 per cent, while the last Neilsen poll showed the coalition at 52 per cent to Labor's 48 per cent.
But with the margins of error taken into account, the coalition needed a swing of about 6.5 per cent to form government, and it could come down to preferences.
AAP
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