Author:
According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, the overall number of Ukrainians who died from 1932-1933 famine is estimated as about four to five million out of six to eight million people who died in the Soviet Union as a whole.[1
|
[
Next Thread |
Previous Thread |
Next Message |
Previous Message
]
Date Posted: 27/11/10 2:09:50
In reply to:
HolodomorA child victim of Holodomor Period 1932–1933 Total deaths 2.6 - 10 millionObservations Considered genocide by thirteen modern states. A part of the Soviet famine of 1932-1933.
's message, " " on 27/11/10 1:52:52
One modern calculation that uses demographic data, including that recently available from Soviet archives, narrows the losses to about 3.2 million or, allowing for the lack of precise data, 3 million to 3.5 million.[63][66][67]
The Soviet archives show that excess deaths in Ukraine in 1932-1933 numbered 1.54 million.[68] In 1932-1933, there were a combined 1.2 million cases of typhus and 500,000 cases of typhoid fever. All major types of disease, apart from cancer, tend to increase during famine as a result of undernourishment lowering resistance, as well as unsanitary conditions from populations too weak to care for themselves, or migrating to refugee camps; thus, these deaths resulted primarily from disease rather than starvation per se.[69] In the years 1932–34, the largest rate of increase was recorded for typhus, which is spread by lice. In conditions of harvest failure and increased poverty, lice are likely to increase. Gathering numerous refugees at railway stations, on trains and elsewhere facilitates the spread. In 1933, the number of recorded cases was 20 times the 1929 level. The number of cases per head of population recorded in Ukraine in 1933 was already considerably higher than in the USSR as a whole. By June 1933, incidence in Ukraine had increased to nearly 10 times the January level, and it was much higher than in the rest of the USSR.[70]
The number of the recorded excess deaths extracted from the birth/death statistics from the Soviet archives is contradictory. The data fails to add up to the differences between the results of the 1927 Census and the 1937 Census.[63]
Incidence of Disease in Russian Empire and USSR Year Typhus Typhoid Fever Relapsing Fever Smallpox Malaria
1913 120 424 30 67 3600
1918-22 1300 293 639 106 2940 (average)
1929 40 170 6 8 3000
1930 60 190 5 10 2700
1931 80 260 4 30 3200
1932 220 300 12 80 4500
1933 800 210 12 38 6500
1934 410 200 10 16 9477
1935 120 140 6 4 9924
1936 100 120 3 0.5 6500
Kulchytsky summarized the natural population change.[63] The declassified Soviet statistics show a decrease of 538,000 people in the population of Soviet Ukraine between 1926 census (28,925,976) and 1937 census (28,388,000). The number of births and deaths (in thousands) according to the declassified records are given in the table (right).
According to the correction for officially non-accounted child mortality in 1933[71] by 150,000 calculated by Sergei Maksudov, the number of births for 1933 should be increased from 471,000 to 621,000. Assuming the natural mortality rates in 1933 to be equal to the average annual mortality rate in 1927-1930 (524,000 per year), a natural population growth for 1933 would have been 97,000. This was five times less than the growth in the previous three years (1927–1930). The natural population growth from 1927 to 1936 should have been 4.043 million, while the census data showed a decrease of 538,000. The sum of the two numbers gives an estimated total demographic loss of 4.581 million people.
Estimates of the human losses due to famine must account for the numbers involved in migration (including forced resettlement). According to Soviet statistics, the migration balance for the population in Ukraine for 1927 - 1936 period was a loss of 1.343 million people. Even when the data was collected, the Soviet statistical institutions acknowledged that the precision was less than for the data of the natural population change. The total number of death in Ukraine due to unnatural causes for the given ten years was 3.238 million; accounting for the lack of precision, estimates of the human toll range from 2.2 million to 3.5 million deaths.
Declassified Soviet statistics[63] Year Births Deaths Natural change
1927 1184 523 661
1928 1139 496 643
1929 1081 539 542
1930 1023 536 487
1931 975 515 460
1932 782 668 114
1933 471 1850 -1379
1934 571 483 88
1935 759 342 417
1936 895 361 534
In addition to the direct losses from unnatural deaths, the indirect losses due to the decrease of the birth rate should be taken into account in consideration in estimating of the demographic consequences of the Famine for Ukraine. For instance, the natural population growth in 1927 was 662,000, while in 1933 it was 97,000, [this does not fit with the table, it had to be a decline of 1.379 thousand, i.e., approx. 1.4 million] in 1934 it was 88,000. The combination of direct and indirect losses from Holodomor gives 4.469 million, of which 3.238 million (or more realistically 3 to 3.5 million) is the number of the direct deaths according to this estimate.
A 2002 study by Vallin et al.[2][72][73] utilizing some similar primary sources to Kulchytsky, and performing an analysis with more sophisticated demographic tools with forward projection of expected growth from the 1926 census and backward projection from the 1939 census estimate the amount of direct deaths for 1933 as 2.582 million. This number of deaths does not reflect the total demographic loss for Ukraine from these events as the fall of the birth rate during crisis and the out-migration contribute to the latter as well. The total population shortfall from the expected value between 1926 and 1939 estimated by Vallin amounted to 4.566 million. Of this number, 1.057 million is attributed to birth deficit, 930,000 to forced out-migration, and 2.582 million to the combination of excess mortality and voluntary out-migration. With the latter assumed to be negligible this estimate gives the number of deaths as the result of the 1933 famine about 2.2 million. According to this study the life expectancy for those born in 1933 sharply fell to 10.8 years for females and to 7.3 years for males and remained abnormally low for 1934 but, as commonly expected for the post-crisis peaked in 1935–36.[73]
According to historian Timothy Snyder, the recorded figure of excess deaths was 2.4 million. However, Snyder claims that this figure is "substantially low" due to many deaths going unrcorded. Snyder states that demographic calculations caried out by the UKrainian government provide a figure of 3.89 million dead, and opined that the actual figure is likely between these two figures, approximately 3.3 million deaths to starvation and disease related to the starvation in UKraine from 1932-1933. Snyder also estimates that of the million people who died in Soviet Russia from famine at the same time, approximately 200,000 were ethnic Ukrainians due to Ukrainian-inhabited regions being particularly hard hit in Russia.[51]
According to estimates[71] about 81.3% of the famine victims in Ukrainian SRR were ethnic Ukrainians, 4.5% Russians, 1.4% Jews and 1.1% were Poles. Many Belarusians, Hungarians, Volga Germans and other nationalities became victims as well. The Ukrainian rural population was the hardest hit by the Holodomor. Since the peasantry constituted a demographic backbone of the Ukrainian nation,[74] the tragedy deeply affected the Ukrainians for many years.
According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, the overall number of Ukrainians who died from 1932-1933 famine is estimated as about four to five million out of six to eight million people who died in the Soviet Union as a whole.[1
[
Next Thread |
Previous Thread |
Next Message |
Previous Message
]
|
Feedback: 