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Date Posted: 01:00:37 09/30/01 Sun
Author: the silent speaker
Subject: Re: The case for Balwerdred
In reply to: Gonzo the Great 's message, "Re: The case for Balwerdred" on 08:42:04 09/03/01 Mon

>Let's try to pick this apart. I don't know how far I
>can get, but I will find out. :)
>
>1. Demandred is in the Borderlands. Oops, that's
>another Forsaken, but we do not know which one. Seems
>we are one Forsaken short of a full deck. ;)
Asmodean was in the Borderlands. That's one forsaken, short of a full deck. :)
>2. True. So would the Aiel, but that is my own theory.
>
>3. Did he indeed control them? Then why did he lose
>control as soon as his protector fell?
He controlled them THROUGH his "protector." Also, the way I figure it as soon as Niall died he decided Valda wasn't worth controlling, he'd be certain to run the Children into the ground, and Balwer ditched them.
>4. I am not certain, but had Omerna ever met Fain?
>That could have had an influence on him as well. If
>Fain believed that Omerna was important, then he could
>have given some suggestions.
>
>5. Everyone believed that the spymaster's identity was
>a secret. It is just that everyone knew that secret,
>and because of that everyone assumed they knew what
>was going on. It's just a variation on a poker face:
>if you always wear a foolish grin when looking at your
>cards, no one can read your real thoughts about them.
The difference is that Niall could have denied that he had any cards in the first place. There's no reason for news of a spymaster of any kind to leak.
>6. A spy master that believes in the inevitable
>victory of his side may overlook important warnings.
>If he does not believe in anything he is both more
>useful and more dangerous. Apparantly Nial was willing
>to accept the second to benefit from the first.
Believing that your side is Right and believing that the dialectic demands its victory are two different things. I would expect the first from a high-ranking Child, but not the second. And Niall certainly believed the first, so what's he saying?
>7. Valda just wanted to save some time by scaring away
>the little creep. Then, when Valda does have time, he
>can amuse himself by hunting down the man; after all,
>Balwer wouldn't have run if he wasn't guilty, would he?
Guilty of what? Twitching?
>8. Not in his age, but this is a new age. No woman is
>as strong as Lanfear, but I do not think you are
>suggesting that Alivia is Lanfear in such a good
>disguise that Lanfear herself failed to notice.
I was quoting. It obviously wasn't a categorical, zero-sum thing, just indicating that Demandred could hold exceptionally intense grudges... and so, it seems, can Balwer. Supportive, not conclusive.
>9. Very interesting. Why would Demandred allow
>Semirage to send her troops against his own
>strongpoint? We do not have any proof of Shadow
>controlled armies that are attacking each other that I
>know of.
A toughie. Probably, she couldn't have the Seanchan convincingly bypass the WCs, so she and Demandred arranged for them to be "taken" but their core to get away.
>10. If Balwer is a trained spy master instead of a
>simple secretary, he is also more than he seems. So,
>if Balwer is Balwer, then it still makes sense.
>
>11. A spy master that is trying to keep contact with
>his network, without mobile phones, is also prone to
>disappear frequently. "Don't mind me, I am going to
>talk to the cook of Miranda Sedai. That AS retired
>years ago, but she still has contacts. Her cook has
>always been a whitecloak sympathizer, and she has
>given me many interesting rumors." Somehow I do not
>think this would be the right message to pass on where
>another AS could hear it.
He's worried about reports in the middle of the woods, and at a time like this? At the least it is more suspicious behavior.
>12. Semirage would not want Demandred killed by
>mistake? Why not, and on what do you base that? For
>all I know, the Forsaken are quite eager to see each
>other dead, as long as it does not interfere with
>their own plans.
True, but now try convincing Mesaana that she isn't next. Worse, Demandred might not actually join the body count... try convincing him. Anyway, Semirhage and Demandred (and Mesaana) have that little alliance thingy. Semirhage won't go after Demandred in earnest.
>13. Balwer has been spending some time with Perrin, a
>couple of asha'man, a bunch of Aiel, some Wise Ones,
>and a few AS. He could have failed to notice them, but
>it doesn't seem likely.
How much time does Balwer actually spend with the AS? Anyway, I'm not especially worried about this point until someone comes up with a possibility who doesn't get as KOd by this as Balwer.
>Last but not least, Halima was not willing to channel
>until after Logain was gone, because he might have
>noticed her. Perrin has not one but two men capable of
>noticing male channeling around him. Why would
>Balwerdred hang around there if he cannot even use his
>greatest advantage?
Maybe that's why Perrin hasn't shown much sign of Compulsion. And don't forget, at the moment he's trying to get behind-the-scenes power again -- he doesn't need large-scale Power use. Even Compulsion he can still use, as long as he doesn't draw too much or use it when an Asha'man is looking. That shouldn't be all that hard, and what else does he have to do? P.S. Halima may not have channeled until after Logain left but she was certainly willing to stay there before.

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