Early Projections -- XAVIER MENS BASKETBALL

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Date Posted: 21:27:03 10/14/02 Mon
Author: The House of Humboldt
Subject: Early Projections

While we are waiting for X-band '01 to convert to the Army of Porn, I thought that I would run down the schedule.

NON CONFERENCE

Home Games (7-0) I believe that we will win all of our home games in the non-conference. St Peters, Florida A&M, Purdue, Miami, Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, and Creighton. Over the past 6 seasons, we are averaging less than 1 home loss per year, I expect us to win at home.

Away/Neutral Court Games (2-3) If we have trouble, I believe it will be away from home. Playing Stanford, Cincinnati, and Alabama on the road all in one season is as tough as it gets. It is almost impossible to come out of those places with a win. I think that at Siena is a very winnable game comparatively, and that Mississpi State on a neutral court is winnable as well. If we could just have a winning record in these away games while holding the home court true our season will be off to a flying start.

Final Nonconference record 9-3

A-10 Regular Season

We play in the toughest division of the A-10. I think that UD and Richmond will be very tough places to play. LaSalle could also grab one if we don't watch it. I don't think that the Dukes or GW will cause much of a problem this year, but we have had trouble with those teams in the past, especially playing at GW. I don't see that this year, at least I hope.

The three Eastern teams that we play on the road this year are Fordham, UMass, and St. Joes. SJU lost 4 starters, and we have never, ever lost to Fordham since joining this conference. UMass could cause us problems in Amherst, they have had our number in the past. I believe that UMass is the only team that we have a regular season losing record against in conference play. We need to beat them on the road this year.

The three Eastern teams we play at home are Temple, URI, and SBU. We have never lost at home to any of these teams, and I don't expect that to happen this year. URI is a breeze, and playing the Bonnies at the Cintas is playing a very different team than you play in Olean. It won't be 8 on 5 this year. Temple is the biggest problem, but I don't think we will fail in the season finale.

We went 14-2 in the regular season last year, and that is the best we have ever done in conference. Little margin for error exists to repeat that feat. If you offered me 13-3 right now, I just might take it. I think that 13-3 is a sensible pick given the number and location of the games involved, so I will go with that.

A-10 Regular Season 13-3
Home (8-0)
Away (5-3)

A-10 Tournament

We are the best team in this conference, so I am going to pick us to win it. The tournament is played at UD, and if we meet them in it, I don't know if we will be favored. They have only been dancing once under Oliver Purnell, and they know that their best chance is to win the tournament. Their backs will probably be against the wall at that point, given the weakness of our conference in power ratings. We could very easily drop a game up there, and expecting us to win it under those conditions is dicey, but I will do it.

A-10 Tournament Champions 3-0

Final Results
25-6 Overall
Home 15-0
Away/Neutral 10-6

Would that be a successful season? It would be one of the most successful seasons in our history, against one of the tougher schedules that we have played. But, this record would actually be a worse record than last year. It would be worse overall, worse in conference, and probably not amount to the mighty 14 RPI that we achieved last year. I can't tell you where our RPI might be, but 14 is a tough job in the Atlantic 10. So we would probably get screwed again by the selection committee, and have our work cut out for us in the Dance.

The only solution is to win every fucking game. Then they can't screw us or overlook us the way they always do. The most important game on our non-con schedule is not the Shootout, it is at Stanford. If we win that game, we get an additional 2 games on a neutral court against power teams at Madison Square Garden. It will also give us more National TV. Winning that game gives us a chance to change the whole equation, and an outside shot at being in the top ten early in the year. Rankings could help us pull the selection committee's dick out of our ass.

The scary thing is, it would be so easy for us to have a great year pre-NCAA's and still fall short of last year's marks. Going 26-6 is nothing to laugh at. Teams lose games. If we go into this year expecting to better all of last year's marks we might just set ourselves up for a huge dissapointment. I read the same Final 4 prognotications that everyone else does, and I eat them up. The last time we were predicted to the Final Four we lost our best player to injury, and the whole season was seen as a disaster.

So the rabid side of me tells me that we have the talent, experience, and depth to win every one of these bad boys, but the ration side of me tells me that 26-6 would still be a hell of a year.

Time will tell, fire away prognosticators!

And X-Band '01, I know you are out there reading this. Quit sitting on the fence and choose a side. You can dedicate yourself to a life of porn and all will be forgotten. If you choose to spurn porn, you do so at your own peril.

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Replies:

[> Good predictions. I agree with them all. Unfortunately, the nock will be that we can't win against decent competition away from Cintas with these results. By the way, when did you find a rational side? -- Matsushira, 09:43:00 10/15/02 Tue

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[> [> I have always had a rational side, but I promise to abandon it by the start of the season. By then I will be proclaiming that we will run the table, undefeated. -- The Humboldt, 00:45:43 10/16/02 Wed

WE WILL WIN THEM ALL!

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[> Excellent work, Humboldt. It was my opinion at the end of last season that it would be difficult to win as many as we did then, despite having what we would all agree is a better team. You are correct that the Stanford game is the big one. I think Xavier will win the PNIT, whether it involves beating Stanford at home or away. But either way, you are correct that the Stanford game gives the opportunity for more exposure than Xavier is used to. I also agree that it will be difficult to top last year's regular season record. -- XU Fan, 17:27:40 10/15/02 Tue

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[> [> Stanford is huge. I hope that the early season advantage tilts our way, given our experience and their replacment of starters. We have to start out hot and get to Madison Square Gardens. That would be a hell of a road trip. -- The Humboldt, 00:56:24 10/16/02 Wed

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[> Snipe man, that was great! I agree on all points. We may have a better team without the better record. Stanford is the key to the OOC, and I think X will prevail. As you pointed out, UC and AL will be tough games. I can't wait to see X @ MSG against Miss St. I do think that Richmond will be joining us in the NCAA, IF, the league improves its OOC. Some early season success, and I don't think the selection committee can screw X too hard. -- MS, 02:07:27 10/16/02 Wed

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[> [> I don't know how you think the selection committee can't screw us again. We won 25 games last year in the regular season and had an RPI of 14. Don't fool yourself. I hope that Richmond is successfull, but the A-10 West will be beating each other up, and the East will be dragging the RPI's down. I could see this as another 1 bid year. -- The House Of Humboldt, 21:33:25 10/18/02 Fri

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[> What is this decision X-band is trying to make? Is there sides? -- MS, 02:08:44 10/16/02 Wed

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[> [> There are two sides in this battle, good versus evil. X-band has been wooed by the dark side, but the force is strong in that one. Darth Poon never gives up and never fails, however, so the band boy will be here soon. -- Homeskillet, 15:40:11 10/16/02 Wed

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[> [> X-band has expressed an interest in joining the Army of Porn. The Army of Porn is the only side you need know about MS. -- The House Of Humboldt, 21:34:42 10/18/02 Fri

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[> I disagree with the Sniper on the road neutral OOC schedule. I rpedict that we lose to Bama and either Kansas or Florida at MSG, but that's it. I otherwise agree with Snipe's guesses on the A10. It's just hard to imagine 14-2 or better in successive seasons, although certainly possible. I say we wind up 25-5 with some solid wins and a 4 or 5 seed after the committee fists us anyway. -- Homeskillet, 15:17:17 10/16/02 Wed

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[> [> The Shoe is one of the toughest venues in D-1 ball. I hope we hand it to Huggins, and he falls down clutching his chest. Yes, that was tasteless. No, if it happened, it wouldn't ruin my day. -- The House of Humbolt, 21:38:25 10/18/02 Fri

Fuck UC anyway. Huggins is a scumbag.

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[> I have to be optimistic. Win the PNIT. OOC losses at Miss St. and either UC or Bama, but not both. 12-2 OOC. Conference - 13-3 with 2 losses between UMass, GW, Richmond & Dayton on the road, and one home letdown loss. 25-5. Hope and pray we don't have to face Dayton in the A-10 tourney. Win tourney 28-5. RPI in the mid teens again, better resume, all year top 25, 4 seed. Sweet 16 game against 1 seed Kansas. Beat them again. From there, I don't care much, but it seems like they might as well win 3 more and just take the whole damn thing. 34-5. National Champions. It could actually happen. -- BP, 11:10:37 10/17/02 Thu

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[> [> Winning the PNIT solves a lot of problems. We play Miss. St. at a neutral site, and hopefully not our first time at the Garden. Going 3-0 in the Garden this year would be key. -- The House of Humboldt, 22:32:50 10/18/02 Fri

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