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Date Posted: 19:52:29 08/20/03 Wed
Author: JH
Subject: Negative sleepers? Camp holdouts? Bah!

First off, let me say that the positive sleeper idea is a fine one. For one thing, some random guy you draft may get a boost, which is nice. Also, the folks who are able to watch the NFLE over the course of the season can possibly make a smart choice and get a player underrated in the draft pool- a nice bonus.

However, the negative/holdout idea is (in my opinion) a poor one.

As to the negative player- if the player is "clearly" overrated in the draft, folks who aren't able to see all the games will have no way of knowing about it. For example, a given CB may appear to have poor stats looking at a season compilation- low tackles/pass defenses/INTs compared to his fellows; this may, however, be because the opposing QBs fear him and don't throw the ball his way because he is so good. If you're able to watch most of the season you'll know this- but some of us (like me, in California) don't have the opportunity to see more than a handful of games because the don't air here, or air at say 2 am. All we have to go by are the stats shown in the draft pool. This equates to a distinct disadvantage based not on drafting skill or lack of interest, but based on the fact we live 6000 miles away from where the games are played.

As to holdouts- a clever idea, holdouts DO happen in real life. However, most holdouts are known risks by the teams drafting them. A professional team will have tried out and interviewed the first 4 or 5 draft picks they select, and will know ahead of time whether the player is likely to cause a problem when it comes time to sign him; the holdout is a suspected issue when it happens, so the team drafting him is aware of the risk and takes a gamble. If I am attempting to draft a WR, and my first choice laughs when my scouts ask him about playing for my team, but my second choice seems eager to play for me, when the time comes to draft one or the other this information can be taken into account. We have no way of knowing this information beforehand, however, so the holdout is in essence a random penalty assessed to a team with no opportunity to avoid it- possibly resulting in lost games based not on ability to manipulate your team or judge your opponent's likely strategies, but a random and unnecessary event you have no opportunity to avoid. In essence, a 12-20 point ding against a player (loss of camp) and 4 game injury that no amount of END can prevent.

I'm hoping these possibilities will be reconsidered and dropped.

JH
San Antonio

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