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Date Posted: 10:13 16/04/24 Tue
Author: collingwoodj
Author Host/IP: NoHost / 1.145.216.249
Subject: moving from history to looking at the future:
In reply to: stephen 's message, "Anyone concerned with our aging list and lack of draft picks we will bottom out in a few years" on 09:51 15/04/24 Mon

Over 5 years you will churn between 15 (legal minimum) and 30+ players through your list by draft, trade and free agency.
You can't look furthur ahead than that since you don't know what positions those 30 players even play.
So looking over the medium term future you can pretty much garuntee that the players over 30 will all be retired in 5 years.

So OFF:
Pendles
Howe
Sidebottom
Cox
Elliot
Mihocek
Mitchell
Hyphen
Crisp

Thats 10 players, so assuming a "list replenishment" stratagy that aims to stay competative and build to the next flag, we may move on another 20 players in the 5 year timeframe.

In five years the next oldest player will be McStay at 33 years and 5 months. Lets assume that he and the others in his age braket are mainstays of the side for the next 2 years, then amongst the veterans for the 2 years after that, then on thier last legs or gone in the 5th year.

So SENIOR CORE:
McStay
Cameron
Moore
DeGoey
Markov
Maynard
Frampton
Noble
Sullivan
Johnson
Shultz
Lipinski
J.Daicos

Josh will be 30y and 4months and in 5 years. Lets say for the sake of argument that this group "sticks together" and thier are only 5 of the 20 moved on from here, I have no inside info, but my call at this moment would most likely be:

Johnson
Sullivan
Markov
Frampton
Noble

Again, just my current take, the assesment would be made each year over the next 5, but you hope to keep a fairly stable group of experienced senior players while "replenishing"

FB: Moore Maynard

R: Cameron
C: J.Daicos DeGoey Lipinski

FF: McStay Shultz

So the structural core of an experienced side that should be able to play out most of the next 5 years is there IMO.
That leave 15 players to turn over from the remaining list:

Kreuger (will be 29 years and 9 months in 5 years)
Carmichael
Richards
Quaynor
Hill
Bytel
McCreery
Dean
Macrae
Parker
Begg
Eyre
McInnes
N.Daicos
Steene
Harrison
Allan
Ryan
Jiath
DeMattia (will be 23 years and 7 months in 5 years)

So if we are keeping 5 of those 20 boys I would be keeping

Quaynor
Hill
N.Daicos
Allan
Jiath

Giving us a core side over the next 5 years of:

FB: Quaynor Moore Maynard
HB: Jiath

R: Cameron Allan N.Daicos
C: J.Daicos DeGoey Lipinski

FF: Hill McStay Shultz

With the remaining 10 senior players drwan from the 30 recruited over the next 5 years.

All this is really just meant as an illistrative example of how list mechanics actually work. The actual players who remain or leave might be different, the numbers might be less (30 over 5 years is probably average though), and who knows who;s careers might be suprisingly long, or cut tragically short, or who might develop in a role etc.

The point is that the whole "cupboard is bare" crowd don't seem to fully appreciate how the numbers actually work over the mid term.

In my scenario where I forced myself to favour a "senior core" I ended up having to let go players I like a lot, like McCreery, just to find the numbers required for who has to come in.

Point of it all is that if we want to field a side with a solid core of AFL experienced players in thier prime 80+ game, 25-30 yo window then the likelyhood is that even with our retiring vetrans, we will still delist the vast majority of the players under 25 over the next 5 years. That is simply how arithmatic works if you have a competative senior side.

And that is why we won't "bottom out".
(being a contender vs being competative is a different thing, but thats for another, vastly more specualtive, post)

GO PIES!!!!

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