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Date Posted: 11:43 09/09/24 Mon
Author: Two-Bob Man
Author Host/IP: NoHost / 110.144.28.91
Subject: Yep - I don't disagree with you
In reply to: stephen 's message, "How do we improve our draft position in 2024, because it is garbage at the moment" on 10:41 09/09/24 Mon

On the evidence we have so far, the argument is that we paid far too much for Schultz. This has pretty much decimated our currency at this year's draft.

Also, the Ginnivan trade was a big backfire on the back of the season we had in relationship to what the Hawks have done.

Yes - the club went "full tilt" on the back of 2023 and thought we had the potential to strike again while the iron was still warm.

However, I don't think it's all doom and gloom necessarily, but it will take some shrewd dealing.

Firstly, although we do not know what changes the AFL is likely to bring in on the back of Father-Son deals, but we believe (based on current evidence) that next year we are likely to either need a first rounder for McGuane, or simply acquire enough points to grab him under existing F/S requirements.

This implies that, rather than utilise a first round pick next year, we can potentially trade next year's first to get into this year's draft and acquire lower picks for next year's draft that we can utilise accumulated on McGuane.

In this year's draft, most of the highly rated picks tend to be midfielders, yet the draft is reported to be deep with many prospective (and quality-rated) key position prospects likely to be available across the second round.

This is an area of need, and it looks like some even mid-to-late second round picks can be utilised on good key position options.

As I mentioned in another post, while our current (and aging) midfield rotation can be decidedly one-paced, both Allan and Demattia - as midfield options - possess a turn of speeed that - should they transition into our senior team - could address this need.

What we have lacked in 2024 (as opposed to our 2023 side) is a midfielder that can help us stop the opposition clearing the ball - we were ineffective this season in being able to cut off the supply of ball to opposition forward lines. This was on the back of Adams' departure and of Mitchell's unavailability due to injury.

Sullivan did OK in this role throughout that early-mid part of the season, but tired and dropped off after that, whilst Long came in but took a little bit of time to work into the pace of AFL (but ended up being a potential option in this regard late in the season). Let's see what the trade period dishes up and whether we could potentially grab such a player.

On the back of a relatively "weak" draft currency last season, we brought in a bevy of guys who assisted us in winning a Flag (even if they weren't there "on the day"). Mitchell, McStay, Hill, Markov and Frampton helped make the difference even though entering last season, many of us thought we just didn't have enough key position options to be successful.

That side last year also included the likes of Adams, Hoskin-Elliott, Lipinski, Cameron, Crisp and Howe, all of whom we didn't draft directly.

Jamie Elliott was a GWS pre-listed player that we acquired in a deal with GWS comprising our acquisition of Marty Clark, Elliot and pick 67 which we gave up for pick 25.

Mihocek and Noble were rookie picks, while Quaynor was an NGA listing and Cox and International Rookie.

Comparing us to the likes of Sydney or Geelong (as many want to do) isn't really a like-for-like comparison.

Sydney's list was highly "subsidised" by virtue of the allowances afforded to the "non-footballing states" in terms of player pre-listing and acquisition.

Geelong - as many of us have mentioned - have their own version of "foreign legion" players that return to that loaction for personal reasons...and the draw of that allows Geelong to "do more with less money" than the Melbourne clubs who must compete with each other for such talent.

Then there's the plethora of clubs which have had years of high-end draft picks, yet it hasn't as yet been franked with any evidence of "success" despite this treasure-trove of acquisitions: North Melbourne, St Kilda and even Essendon and Carlton - who have both been recipients of high-end MULTIPLE first round draft picks across the last decade - have not yet had that franked in a successful outcome.

There's many ways to skin a cat.

Like I said - I agree that some decisions by the club have been busts - but some have been astute and if you said to me 20 years ago that - in an 18 team competition - we would have 2 Flags 13 years apart, I would have taken those odds in a heartbeat....I've lived through too may season disappointments in over 5 decades to know that you don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

TBM

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