And this is why we perhaps shouldn't get too down about our situation -- BULLET IN BOARD

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Date Posted: 18:13 18/09/24 Wed
Author: Two-Bob Man
Author Host/IP: NoHost / 110.144.28.91
Subject: And this is why we perhaps shouldn't get too down about our situation
In reply to: Pyeman WPBD 's message, "Christian Moraes at 28 is nuts, just shows how good this years group is" on 11:37 18/09/24 Wed

This year's draft allegedly bats deep.

Most of the top-tier players that are going to generate competition between the clubs to snare them seem to be midfielder types, with the most highly-rated key position players being Harry Armstrong, Alix Tauru and the Whitlock boys that might be considered in the top 20 (in fact, the Whitlock boys - or at least one of them - might be gettable with a pick in the 20s)

If people do go talls (which we know is one of our needs) then it leave some pretty good talent in its wake that didn't get snapped up.

Now, while our first draft pick is not until 33, a bit has to play out during the trade window which could potentially unlock some value for us.

Firstly, assuming that the Father-Son rules stay somewhere around where they currently exist, we have a 2025 first rounder that looks at risk of being utilised in the acquisition of McGuane (assuming that he chooses to nominate for F/S at the Pies). Also, the 2025 cohort doesn't look to be as well stocked as this current draft.

So there is an opportunity to utilise our 2025 pick to acuire a swag of picks - some for this year. Whether a 2025 first rounder can allow us to acquire a lower first-rounder this year, or perhaps multiple picks (a couple of second-rounders with a lower pick perhaps), remains to be seen.

That might get us an earlier pick than we currently have - one in the 20s perhaps.

But we know that there is potentially more in play.

We look likely to get something in return for Noble and/or Richards and I suspect that these would be a 2nd or 3rd rounder respectively, with a range of "pick swap" permutations on the cards.

If we have multiple picks with good points value, there are a swag of teams looking to acquire points for Father-Son or Academy options in a draft where many of these boys are likely to go earlier.

Can the Pies manufacture a first round pick by offering better "points value" to a side than their first pick would currently offer?

This is why the suggestion that we could get a first round pick for Noble is not entirely a fantasy-type proposition...because it all depends on whether Gold Coast gets the additional picks which offers them value for who they need to acquire with the points.

But even if we don't land a pick in the first round, having two picks in the second round as well as an additional two picks in the third round, in this draft, could net us a couple of very good players.

The trading away of our 2021 first-round pick in 2020 for multiple picks (24, 30, and Geelong's future 4th), allowed us to get multiple picks in that 2020 draft by spending our future - however, we knew that our first round pick was highly likely to have been utilised on Nick daicos anyway, so it ended up being a calculated raisk.

Now the bid for Nick didn't come until pick four - and we WOULD have had pick 3 had we not traded it away. So yese - there is the possibility that we could have had 2 top 10 picks (essentially) at the 2021 draft....but who knows?

In the end, we used picks 38, 40, 42 and 44 to get Nick (at the cost, effectively, of pick 4)

The trade in 2020 also allowed us to get Henry, Macrae and McInness (two first rounders and an early second rounder) at the 2020 draft.

So...where we stand today we will need to assess the potential of what could transpire next year.

I McGuane going to be a player who is taken notice of, and how would he project in terms of draft value - at the moment, he is being spoken about in early calculations.

Given that we have a potential top 10 player available to us without necessarily having to use a top 10 pick, we need to decide what we realistically believe is achievable for the side in 2025. If we finish in the 8, our pick is likely to be 11 or later.

This is the call nobody can make with any certainty, but if we finish in the 8, chances are that McGuane will cost us that pick regardless. If we finish outside the 8, we may have a top 10 pick and McGuane COULD slip past these early slection...meaning when the bid comes, wwe've already used our first pick on someone else and then can get McGuane regardless.

This is where we can only go by probabilities...

Or are we better-placed utilising our draft currency THIS year in a draft that bats deeper than next year's, knowing that we can likely get McGuane regardless?

This is the unanswerable conundrum.

FWIW, I think we might get to see us acquire a stronger draft hand this year and hope that McGuane nominates us as a F/S and that we simply ensure we have the points required to draft him next year (at wherever that bid may come).

TBM

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Replies:

We had Pick 2 not 3 in ND draft had we not traded it early. (NT) -- Rodda83, 21:04 18/09/24 Wed
- Yes, Rodda - you are correct. -- Two-Bob Man, 21:22 18/09/24 Wed

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