Good points Cakewalk...just remember this though... -- BULLET IN BOARD

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Date Posted: 14:25 19/09/24 Thu
Author: Two-Bob Man
Author Host/IP: NoHost / 110.144.28.91
Subject: Good points Cakewalk...just remember this though...
In reply to: Cakewalk 's message, "I think their success is a huge draw" on 11:53 19/09/24 Thu

We all agree and laud Sydney and Geelong's successful period...

We also, however, need to bear in mind the following, particularly breaking down the period into the "modern" day (ie. this century - since 2000):
- Geelong have won 4 Premierships
- Sydney have won 2 Premierships (the same number as Collingwood)
- Since their last Flag in 2012, Sydney have played in (and LOST) 3 Grand Finals (if this were Collingwood, many of us WON'T be lauding that in the same way we are lauding Sydney's "success")
- Geelong won a Flag in 2022 with their previous one being back in 2011 - 11 years. This trumps the Pies by 2 years (2023 and then 2010), but the Pies did contest a Grand Final in 2018 sooner after their previous win than Geelong who didn't make the Grand Final again until 2020 (which the lost to Richmond).
- Geelong has been the minor Premier on 4 occasions and both Sydney and Collingwood 3 times.

This talk of how superior these two side are may certainly has a lot of legs, but I would argue that the Pies are not THAT much further behind the pack, and certainly not when considering the teams that put themselves in with a chance to win the Flag over the last 24 years.

One thing I will tell you is that ONLY ONE of Geelong or Sydney could possibly have another Flag this year, and there is also a chance that neither of them could be.

Since 2000, the Following Flags have been won by these clubs:
4 - Geelong, Hawthorn
3 - Brisbane, Richmond
2 - Sydney, West Coast, Collingwood
1 - Essendon, Port, Bulldogs, Melbourne

In terms of making Finals since 2000:
Sydney - 20 times
Geelong - 19 times
Collingwood - 15 times

One thing that many people know, but is often glossed over, is that fact that making finals is a product of how you perform during the H&A - and we know that both Sydney and Geelong have the good fortune of playing a significant number of games at a "non-neutral" ground where they have historically had some level of advantage.

How much does this 2/4/6 points per season make a difference in terms of ultimate ladder finishing position?

There are so many intangibles to unpack, that I'm not sure we could ever assess this objectively without acknowledging that there are some factors that play a part in this that cannot clearly be defined.

TBM

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