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Date Posted: 19:12 23/10/24 Wed
Author: Colin Wisbey
Author Host/IP: n175-39-135-218.meb4.vic.optusnet.com.au / 175.39.135.218
Subject: Agree with almost all of that, Seery
In reply to: the seer 's message, "Nah, disagree - here's why:" on 15:23 23/10/24 Wed

IMHO "elite" as U18 would be an overstatement. 3 big games in his pre-draft year 2019, of which 2 were in the "fool's gold" period while the U18 Champs were on, and 3 good U17's series games but most of his 2019 U18 games were what we've seen since, which is what you encapsulated so well. i.e. snippets of genuine significant AFL traits with not glaring flaws. AFL promise but in cameo.

2020 was a "blindfold" draft - essentially no footy for Vic kids so having to extrapolate an 18yo's AFL potential from his 17yo form of a year earlier was always going to be fraught with danger.

Assessing Reef was even hairier - his 2019 season was disrupted by back injury, an injury that even stopped him having a 2020 pre-season.

I'm not convinced that your "making the call too early before" names were the wrong calls. (Various reasons.)

Everything else you said, I agree with 100%. His sample size of 4-qtr promising games is underwhelming but IMHO your rational for persisting with him is spot on.

He might turn out to be

one of those players who regularly looks AFL in cameo moments but never becomes sufficiently productive to establish a best 22 spot (hence fails to sustain an AFL career),

or

if his tank never reaches AFL standard (esp for Fly's running game) he'll fails to sustain an AFL career

or

his tank develops sufficiently and his game comes together and he cements a long-term place in our best 22.

We wouldn't bet our last dollar on any of those outcomes. However, if he has an injury-free next 12 months and is given ample opportunity in suited-to roles (midfield, defence), by this time next year I very confident we would be willing to bet our last dollar on one of the above outcomes.

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