Week 6... Day of Reckoning? -- fifl

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Date Posted: 16:07:46 09/07/04 Tue
Author: Jimmy
Author Host/IP: 68.107.97.246
Subject:

Week 6... Day of Reckoning?

[editors note ]Some interesting stuff I�ve run into looking for �free NFL picks odds��a good passing game is always more important than a good running game. The statistical relationship between wins and net yards per pass attempt is more than twice as strong as the relationship between wins and rushing yards per carry. The conventional wisdom about the need to "establish the run" is nonsense. Six of last year's playoff teams were among the 10 teams that ran the ball the least in the first quarter. In general, winning teams pile up rushing yards by running out the clock after they have the lead�teams run when they win rather than win when they run�� see SLATE magazine. Just a tidbit discovered as I surfed the web this week. Thanks for the Waldo Jeffers clue. Never heard them B4� hearing a lot of them now [Wages of Sin +]� and loving it. Can�t quite make out all the lyrics yet [��we grow fat on the excesses�] but I�ll get there. COOL! GIVE ME MORE!

Fort Wayne (2-3) at Lincoln (0-5)
key matchups:

QB John Fourcade (5 TDs/1360 yds) vs. Fort Wayne pass D
DE Earnest Certain (6 sacks) vs. T Chris Howington
WR Barry Wagner (33 rec/451 yds/0 TDs) vs. CB Clevan Thomas
HB Lincoln Coleman (352 yds/1 TDs) vs. LB Johnny Harrison (34 Tackles)
WR Larry Ray Willis (27 rec/325 yds/1 TDs) vs. CB Corey Dowden (2 INTs)

prediction:

Fort Wayne 21, Lincoln 22

The Safari showing signs of life faster than division rivals in the rebuilding mode. Glad we cut dude man off at the pass, but present management seems to have recouped the lost personnel good enough to compete? Seems Springfield has been surpassed by Lincoln as the all-time hard luck team. Cripes, the Lightning seem to lose by 1 point every week! Make the Call? FTW 21, LIN 22.

Billings (2-3) at Springfield (2-3)
key matchups:

QB Wilkie Perez (6 TDs/1318 yds) vs. Billings pass D
HB Brian Edmonds (372 yds/3 TDs) vs. LB Bart Barnard (36 Tackles)
WR Larry Perrymond (21 rec/226 yds/0 TDs) vs. CB LeRoi Jones (2 INTs)
HB Wesley Cates (465 yds/4 TDs) vs. LB Rodney Woodham (35 Tackles)

prediction:

Billings 21, Springfield 27

The Thunderbolts making things interesting for the suspecting. The Wesley Cates media blitz is well deserved. Guess it does pay to start a rookie once in a while. We�ll file that thought away for now. There�s that name again: QB Wilkie Perez. Can�t figure out how he does it, gave up looking to explain it. Dude just keeps on keepin� on. Make the Call? BIL 21, SPR 27.

Game of the WEEK! Black Hills (2-3) at Wichita (4-1)
key matchups:

QB Jay McDonagh (8 TDs/1447 yds) vs. Black Hills pass D
WR Pascal Volz (32 rec/462 yds/1 TDs) vs. CB Jimmy Lamour
QB Michael Proctor (6 TDs/1353 yds) vs. Wichita pass D
HB Raphael Cooper (340 yds/5 TDs) vs. Wichita run D (4.5 rush avg)
TE Eric Alford (33 rec/368 yds/1 TDs) vs. LB Brad Kjar

prediction:

Black Hills 19, Wichita 26

Rebuilding old school perennial powerhouse Black Hills VS new wave (and well schooled) powerhouse Wichita. QB Jay McDonagh too much for the fledgling Machine defense, QB Proctor not yet ready for prime time VS the Warlords. Make the Call? BLK 19, WCH 26� but watch out for in yer ear!

Fargo (3-2) at Mobile (1-4)

key matchups:

WR Bernard Edwards (29 rec/464 yds/1 TDs) vs. CB Milton Vaughn
QB Kurt Warner (7 TDs/1343 yds) vs. Mobile pass D
DE Terrence Simmons (7 sacks) vs. T Tom Gibson
WR Alfonzo Browning (29 rec/379 yds/0 TDs) vs. CB Richard Rodgers

prediction:

Fargo 22, Mobile 19
---------------------------------
Freeze smarting after a blocked FG prevented OT last week. HB Childs sits again. Seagulls make some curious moves traveling in the uncharted territories they are experiencing that somewhat paid off last week� but losing continues to plague this always proud franchise. Don�t wanna take on this group next season. Make the Call? FGO 22, MOB 19.

Louisiana (4-1) at Austin (3-2)
key matchups:

QB Gary Porter (8 TDs/1288 yds) vs. Louisiana pass D
WR Mercury Hayes (41 rec/546 yds/4 TDs) vs. CB Quincy Sorrell (1 INT)
TE Vong Xaykosy (22 rec/272 yds/1 TDs) vs. LB Miguel Merritt
HB Rayshawn Askew (389 yds/1 TDs) vs. LB Jon Eberspach (29 Tackles)
TE Michael Montoya (31 rec/484 yds/5 TDs) vs. LB Jon Eberspach

prediction:

Louisiana 20, Austin 22

Louisiana employing every bit of strategy acquired (NICE that Captain JT Kirk was able impart the wisdom of his defeat of the Romulan Commander ��he is a sorcerer, that one.�) Austin still looking for its� 1st division W this season. Make the Call? LOU 16, AUS 17. Blood spilled profusely in this one�

Mississippi (4-1) at Madison (2-3)
key matchups:

WR Jo Jo Justice (25 rec/319 yds/2 TDs) vs. CB Mike Morris (2 INTs)
TE Chinedu Achebe (31 rec/317 yds/0 TDs) vs. LB Jarvis Spencer (1 INT)

prediction:

Mississippi 19, Madison 18

The Fire Dogs finally put bits and pieces from trading has-beens and never-will-bees into a formidable opus. Will the GM allow this team to win it all? Team most certainly deserves a shot. It won�t hurt our feelings to be bested by this squad. They are that good. The Mad Dogs always seem to pull their ass out of a sure-thing consuming fire. Watch this one closely. Make the Call? MIS 16, MAD 17.

Honolulu (3-2) at Steel Valley (1-4)
key matchups:

QB Mike Hohensee (5 TDs/1338 yds) vs. Honolulu pass D
HB Leotis Flowers (355 yds/2 TDs) vs. LB Kareem Sears (31 Tackles)
WR Calvin Schexnayder (45 rec/695 yds/3 TDs) vs. CB Richard Holt
DT Alan Donnell (6 sacks) vs. G Adam Hotz

prediction:

Honolulu 21, Steel Valley 22

Logic says the Hurricanes Swamp the Smash. Make the Call? HON 21, STV 22.

Colorado (3-2) at Dayton (4-1)
key matchups:

QB Joshua Wallwork (10 TDs/1242 yds) vs. Colorado pass D
HB Rashaan Dumas (339 yds/5 TDs) vs. Colorado run D (3.4 rush avg)
HB Rickey Blake (432 yds/6 TDs) vs. LB Larry Wilson (31 Tackles)
DE Franklin Thomas (8 sacks) vs. T Mark Stout
WR Robert Garth (32 rec/436 yds/3 TDs) vs. CB Wayne Williams

prediction:

Colorado 22, Dayton 28

Two of the top franchises in recent times go head-to-head! 5 star game! If Dayton pulls this one out, the AFC rules! Make the Call? Pick �em.

Portland (3-2) at St Louis (2-3)
key matchups:

TE Rufus Bess (27 rec/321 yds/1 TDs) vs. LB Darnell Minnieweathe
DE Joe March (7 sacks) vs. T A.J. Sebastian

prediction:

Portland 21, St Louis 24

Portland on a down streak, St Louis holding their own? MORE AFC VS NFC dominance? Make the Call? POR 21, STL 24.

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