Drastic Increase in EQ Activity -- Earthwatchers

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Date Posted: 22:02:34 10/04/02 Fri
Author: Eoth
Subject: Drastic Increase in EQ Activity

DRASTIC INCREASE IN SEISMIC ACTIVITY
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I am unable to post the graphs of the data, but if one graphs the five year energy release averages there are a small number of data points, and it shows the picture of what's happening. The rest of the data is for those who want to "crunch" their own numbers.

You may be interested in what an analysis of existing earthquake data published by the U.S. government (neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html) indicates. There is no current explanation; however the approach of a large gravitational field could be a possible explanation. If it�s increasing by this amount at this early a date the effects may be enormous.

A clearer picture of the actual effects of increased seismic activity can be seen when the amount of energy released is analyzed, rather than the total number of quakes. Because the larger quakes are weighted more heavily, and they are the ones most accurately reported, the overall picture is more accurate. This overcomes some criticism that the increase in total numbers of quakes is merely a function better reporting and monitoring. The major increase in energy release is since 1990, when monitoring was quite accurate. Is it possible that this dramatic increase in energy release may be related to or more likely cause global warming? The chart of the five year averages show a much clearer indication of the dramatic increase in released energy. The raw data and formula used is for the benefit of those who would like to �crunch the numbers� in other ways. There is some disagreement on whether the energy increase accompanying each whole integer increase on the Richter scale is 31 or 32, and so the more conservative estimate of 31, is used. The implications are dramatic.

Using the assumption that each whole number increase on the Richter scale, increases the energy release by a factor of 31, (neic.usgs.gov/neis/genera...hter.html)
And setting the midpoint of the Richter scale category of (.1-.9) as a base line, we then get the formula; (where N= the number of quakes in a range) N1+ (N2*31) + (N3*31^2) + (N4*31^3) � etc., for the entire series of ranges. This will give the energy release for each year as below, using scientific notation, in equivalent .1-.9 (N1) level quakes.

DATA FROM U.S. GOVERNMENT NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER NUMBER OF QUAKES IN EACH RANGE ON THE RICHTER SCALE

YEAR .1-.9 1.0-1.9 2.0-2.9 3.0-3.9 4.0-4.9 5.0-5.9 6.0-6.9 7.0-7.9 8.0-9.9
1970 0 0 13 149 2355 1195 110 20 0
1971 0 0 18 182 2338 1221 112 19 1
1972 0 0 6 310 2300 1316 110 15 0
1973 0 0 11 502 2576 1331 95 13 0
1974 0 3 24 489 2598 1312 99 14 0
1975 0 0 41 553 2608 1447 107 14 1
1976 0 0 53 650 2550 1649 114 15 2
1977 0 0 54 479 2405 1686 89 11 2
1978 0 4 111 836 2602 1526 93 16 0
1979 0 1 99 1280 3024 1366 100 13 0
1980 0 2 79 1725 3271 1299 105 13 1
1981 0 3 109 1082 3209 1168 90 13 0
1982 0 3 170 1128 3232 1425 85 10 0
1983 1 8 291 1578 3563 1673 126 14 0
1984 0 37 442 1579 3683 1579 91 8 0
1985 0 97 935 1764 4281 1674 110 13 1
1986 0 153 1169 1942 4476 1665 89 5 1
1987 0 102 1037 1806 4146 1437 112 11 0
1988 3 118 1479 1932 4018 1485 93 8 0
1989 0 418 1906 2452 4090 1444 79 6 1
1990 0 474 2364 2457 4493 1635 115 12 0
1991 1 801 2927 2952 4372 1469 105 11 0
1992 2 887 3068 4643 5196 1541 104 23 0
1993 9 1177 5390 4263 5034 1449 141 15 1
1994 17 779 5369 5000 8140 1327 161 13 2
1995 19 645 3828 5002 8140 1327 185 22 3
1996 1 295 2388 4869 8794 1223 160 21 1
1997 4 388 2397 4467 7938 1118 125 20 0
1998 10 805 4091 5945 7303 979 113 14 2
1999 5 715 4201 5521 7042 1106 123 23 0
2000 5 1028 3758 4784 8045 1345 153 16 4
2001 1 946 4133 6137 8214 1152 130 14 1

CHART OF TOTAL ENERGY RELEASE BY YEAR

YEAR ENERGY
1970 6.84269E+11
1971 1.51215E+12
1972 5.50124E+11
1973 4.82476E+11
1974 5.13015E+11
1975 1.37688E+12
1976 2.26923E+12
1977 2.13791E+12
1978 5.68856E+11
1979 4.88353E+11
1980 1.344E+12
1981 4.73974E+11
1982 3.94379E+11
1983 5.48236E+11
1984 3.49518E+11
1985 1.36011E+12
1986 1.1213E+12
1987 4.47063E+11
1988 3.48923E+11
1989 1.13327E+12
1990 4.83248E+11
1991 4.42011E+11
1992 7.74148E+11
1993 1.43698E+12
1994 2.252E+12
1995 3.3738E+12
1996 1.61594E+12
1997 7.00664E+11
1998 2.2262E+12
1999 7.80289E+11
2000 4.03364E+12
2001 1.3942E+12

AVERAGE ENERGY RELEASE IN FIVE YEAR INCREMENTS

5 YEAR AVERAGE
1970 -1974 7.48407E+11
1975 -1979 1.36825E+12
1980 -1984 6.22022E+11
1985 -1989 8.82135E+11
1990 -1994 1.07768E+12
1995 -2001 2.01782E+12

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Replies:

Re: Drastic Increase in EQ Activity -- robert coykendall, 20:31:14 06/26/04 Sat