the future -- American University Eagles

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Date Posted: 22:55:38 03/19/03 Wed
Author: matt b
Subject: the future

Here is my attempt to spur discussion on this ghosttown of a board:

..so we lost to holy cross. big freaking deal. jeff jones has taken this program to two championship games in his first three seasons, at a school that hadn't been close since the 80s. Let's look at what we have on tap. As I see it, AU goes at least to the championships again next year, and is in line to dominate the league in two years.

Next year's starting lineup:
C Matej Cresnik (Jr)
F Jernavis Draughn (Sr)
F Jamaal Caterina (So) or Raimondas Petrauskas (Jr)
G Jason Thomas (So)
G Andres Rodriguez (Sr)

This isn't a bad team-- It's basically the same one that we have had on the court during impressive parts of the season. Let's go through it person by person:

-Matej has gotten better throughout the season, but I think this season as a whole has to have been a little tough. He was trying to fill some big shoes in Patrick Doctor, and I don't think he has gotten completely comfortable playing the post. There have been shades of brilliance (vs. Army), other than that, we can just hope he continues to get better.
-Jernavis got twice as good at the end of the season as he was at the beginning. He is strong, and with the development of his ability to slash to the hoop, he should be a real threat next year.
-Raimondas looked awesome during the PL title game, and is a tough SOB. He will be dominant at some point, as he continues to learn the game (and english). He won't ever be a leading scorer, but can certainly play the role Keith Gray used to, as a tough guy inside who can rebound for you and get a few points. Caterina has a tremendous upside to his game--if he hits the weights and works hard, I don't see why he wouldn't start next year.
-Jason Thomas is just plain gifted, and I look for him to put up at least 15 points a game next season.
-Andres, what can you say about him? He was the best guard on this team this year, whether you knew it or not. If he starts to shoot more (and he's a hell of a shooter), he will be the biggest threat on this team. He was hurt most of this year, if he stays healthy, we'll be okay.

This is a good team-- Certainly as good as any in the PL, and capable of making the tournament.. Remember, our leading scorer left last year too, and we did just fine this year.

In two years, Thomas, Caterina, Cresnik, and Petrauskas are all upperclassmen, and I think little Ryan Graham is the PG, barring a recruit coming in and winning the spot. Graham is a good ballhandler, but I haven't seen him shoot particularly well (this is given the limited amount I've seen him). Regardless, as all of these guys continue to get better, I don't see why we shouldn't contend for and win the PL title over the next 3 years. Holy Cross is losing their best players this year, and they can't just keep winning forever.

Have faith, Eagles fans.

matt b

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Replies:

[> Re: the future -- AU Josh H, 15:57:34 03/22/03 Sat

Holy Cross still has Whearty, Meade, Lufkin, Hamilton, and Kinsey, so I wouldn't be so sure about them fading.

As for AU, I agree with most of what you say, with one addition: the role of Jarrod Kohl. He obviously didn't play much this year, but having a 6'10", 225 guy will help out, even if he only plays 10-15 minutes a game. The most plausible action will probably be to phase him in like Thomas this year, from just a few minutes to a key bench role.

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[> Re: the future -- Sader Fan, 20:10:20 03/28/03 Fri

Whearty is graduating. However HC does have Keith Simmons and Joe Young coming in as freshmen, two of the highest rated recruits they have had in years.

I expect AU and HC to battle it out for the foreseable future. I was very impressed with the Eagles this year. They are a great addition to the Patriot League.

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[> Re: the future -- AUScott22, 20:05:28 05/14/03 Wed

Wow, that is a wildly optimistic review of the returning squad for next year. When you lose your top two offensive scorers from a team, it is difficult to stay competitive. I'm not saying it won't happen, but it will be tough. Losing Doctor and Gray last year made us change our offense completely. We used a pure motion offense with few post up's by the big men. It relied heavily on the three point shot. Miles and Stokes were the primary threats. My guess is that Jones will have to reconstruct the offense again this year. There really aren't any scorers like those guys that left on the current squad, freshmen withstanding.

A big concern with last year's squad was depth. We had an eight man rotation with spot contributions from Demek Adams. Losing three of the top eight will be tough to offset.

The returning players who played last year:

Matej
A good big man in Jones' motion offense. He can chuck it from three enough to be considered a threat. His post defense and rebounding improved over the year. The medical redshirt year will keep him here two more seasons. Thats a huge plus. He is a solid contributor and 5 fouls in the post.

Raimondas
Wow, this kid has come a long way. I can't even count the times Jones almost slugged him last year as he came off the court. He tried so hard and couldn't speak a lick of english. He would try to block the shot every time and that is what infuriated Jones so much as he racked up the fouls. But in the PL tourney the kid showed up big. He was incredible and gave me big hope for his future in the middle. This kid is a true center here in the PL. He may not start at the beginning of the season, but we now have a guy that can go mano a mano with a good post player. Will be the first big of the bench at worst, and could start if Jones elects to go big, which I doubt. I'm gushing over this guy, I like him that much.

Jernavis
If he just tried a little harder and gave it his all he'd be the best player on the team. He has so much talent it is scary. The positives: He can jump, provide solid play in the post and take it strong to the rack. The negatives: He can't shoot very well, his form on lay ups is awful, and he puts his head down when he drives. He'd be an ideal three man if he could develop his perimeter skills. But until that happens, he is stuck playing in the post where he is faster than the bigs who guard him. If only he'd work harder...

JT
I love him too. He's got mad hops. The best dunker on the squad. Plays a little tentative, almost scared at times. I don't think he responds well to Jones' screaming fits. But he'll have to show up and be a big contributor on the wing next year. He needs to hit his shot more consistently. He'll have to work on coming off screens and popping and even develop a move where he can create his own look. If he can do that over the summer, he'll start at 2G. If not...yikes.

Dre
The heart and soul of the team. Leaves it all on the court every night. Does everything you want a PG to do. But, his shot is suspect. It hasn't been such a problem before but now that he will have to increase his scoring, he needs to hit the outside jumper more regularly. Also, he needs to take and make those four foot looks he is left wide open for. He'll have to go fourty mins some nights. Let's hope the wheels don't fall off.

The guys who rode the pine last year:

Jamaal
I had big hopes for him last year. Those hopes were dashed early. He was flat out scared on the court last year. Always thinking and never really involved in the offense. Kind of like Raimondas but he never turned the corner and wasn't really needed for depth at his spot. This guy will get minutes next year, no doubt. He needs more strength and he needs to find his flow in the offense so he can get comfortable and contribute. Other than that it is tough to tell since he didn't show much or get a lot of time.

Jarrod
A big boy with bad hair. He has nice size and seems to move okay. He may get some spot time next year. Won't be needed if he's not ready. Hopefully the summer does him well.

Ryan
A nice PG. I like him for what he is. A back up to the back up who doesn't make mistakes. I was dissappointed that Jones wouldn't let him run anything during garbage time. He could use the experience.

Craig
I'm tempted to move on but first let me say I know personally at least 10 or 15 undergrads at AU I'd take as a walkon before him. Yikes. I think his legs are different lengths. Either that or he limps to look cool, you decide.

Now the freshman to be:

Lekivicius and Ingram will definitely be in the backcourt rotation. Linas will back up Dre and Ingram could give JT a fight for the starting 2G job. Sekou should be in the mix at the three. The best outside shooters and solid contributors will play. Billbe should sit next to Kohl most of the year, but maybe he'll surprise. One ship to still be filled.

Bottom line: With Doctor, Miles and Stokes leaving the program over the past two years, the stars are all gone. New ones have to emerge and with that comes the scoring load the old guard carried on their shoulders. Can the current guys do that? I don't see anyone on the squad now that can take over and lead the charge. I hope the new guys can provide that dynamic.

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