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Tuesday, April 01, 01:03:16am [ Login ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 1, 2, 3, 4 ]

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Date Posted: Monday, March 03, 03:17:57pm
Author: eganonoa
Author Host/IP: pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net / 108.18.149.21
Subject: We are the long ball kings!

Watching the match yesterday I noticed how many long balls Man U were firing off and thought I'd take a look to see whether they were generally a massively long-ball team. I was surprised to find that not only were they not, but that we were actually the Premier League's long-ball kings!

So far this season, we've attempted 72 long balls per 90 minutes, third highest in the league behind Everton and Bournemouth. But we've completed 40.6 per 90, the highest in the league, with a completion rate of 56.3%, behind only Man City at 63.2% completed. We have the 8th most accurate long balls in the top-5 leagues in Europe, behind only Inter, Bologna, Real Madrid, PSG, Lazio, Barcelona and Fiorentina. I had no idea!

I thought maybe it was the influence of Andersen. But, while he's definitely improved us some, it's not really him but the team set-up in general. For instance, last year, we attempted the 4th most long balls at 75.1 per 90 (behind Everton, Bournemouth and Luton), completing 41.7 per 90 behind only Liverpool and Man City, with a completion rate of 55.6%. So while Andersen is amazing at long balls -- last year he had the 2nd most completed long-balls on a non-goalie (Rodri was first), and this year he has the most -- he's actually not moved the needle for us materially. What's happening is that Andersen is both replacing Tosin's long balls, which he was very good at albeit not at Andersen's level, and taking more long balls from other players. So in the end we don't look to have changed all that much between seasons in terms of raw numbers of attempted or completed long-balls or completion rate.

To see a player who HAS had a big influence it's Rodri, who last season had a ridiculous 84.8% long-ball success rate out of 401 attempts. In his absence Man City have dropped from the most accurate long-balls last season to the 10th this season. Not only is Rodri a ridiculously good long-ball passer, but Man City recognize that and place responsibility for long balls in him over the defenders, so that he matches his high completion rate with high volume. What's most interesting about this is that it raises the question of whether we should indeed be putting so much emphasis on Andersen making the long-balls for the team. Last season there was only one other player who had over 100 completed long-balls and a completion rate anywhere near Rodri's 84.8% and that was Sander Berge at 81.2%! And this season he's been even better attempting 79 long balls and completing 70 at a ridiculous 88.6% completion rate! The best in the league by some distance. Only one player who has attempted even a single long-ball has done better than him (Wellbeck with 7 out of 7). Andersen, in contrast has a 57% completion rate, one of the best defenders in this regard, but not the best (Kilman, for instance, handily beats him). So, while we are already the Premier League's long-ball kings we could perhaps be even better funneling the ball to Berge instead of Andersen!

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