Comparing our three-man central midfield over the last three Premier League seasons -- SW6.doc

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Date Posted: Wednesday, March 05, 06:13:08pm
Author: eganonoa
Author Host/IP: pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net / 108.18.149.21
Subject: Comparing our three-man central midfield over the last three Premier League seasons

Interesting discussion below on the merits of Palhinha and Berge and how our system has changed to make a destructive midfielder less important. So far this season we're scoring at about the same rate as we were last season, but we're conceding less, even as Leno hasn't performed as well and we're otherwise more-or-less equal in terms of defensive ability in our backline. With apologies in advance to our resident troll MWKent/Fact/Gibberishman, I thought it might be interesting to some to see how our midfield has changed statistically over our three seasons in the Premier League.

In 2022/23 our primary midfield was Andreas as attacking mid, Palhinha as defensive mid, and Reed as a box-to-box partner for Palhinha, with some backup from Cairney and Lukic. In 2023/24 our primary midfield was Palhinha, Andreas and a 50/50 split of either Cairney as a second attacking midfielder, or one of Lukic or Reed partnering Palhinha as a more box-to-box type. This season we've chopped and changed more, sometimes playing Berge/Lukic as defensive midfielder with two attacking mids of ESR and Andreas, sometimes playing ESR/Andreas as an attacking mid, Berge as a defensive mid, Lukic as a box-to-box partner for Berge (with some limited backup efforts from Cairney and Reed). Looking at per 90 minute and %age stats in defending, possession, progression, creating and scoring you can see how we've become much less reliant on pure defending by being better able to keep possession and progress the ball, all while not impacting our midfield's ability to score and create goals.

1. Defending: Our numbers overall are significantly down in this area, most likely a combination of both lower defensive skills without Palhinha and less need for those defensive skills. Our numbers of players tackled are significantly down (6.19 per 90 in 22/23, 6.92 in 23/24, 5.41 this season) as is our %age of dribblers tackled (44% => 55% => 39% today). Our aerial duels skills are more-or-less the same (51% success in 22/23, 48% in 23/24, 47% in 204/25) but we're winning less aerial duels (3.18 => 2.29 => 2.15) because there appear to be fewer of them. Similarly we have made fewer block (3.87 => 3.32 => 2.52), blocked shots (0.66 => 0.76 => 0.59) and blocked passes (3.21 => 2.55 => 1.93). Interceptions (2.13 => 2.37 => 2.22) and clearances (2.92 => 3.13 => 2.81) are more-or-less the same.

2. Possession & Progression: We've replaced more defending with significantly fewer turnovers and so much better ability to progress the ball, in particular because of a much better ability of our midfielders with the ball at their feet. Our pass completion rates have skyrocketed (78% in 22/23, 81% in 23/24, 86% this season) as have our long-pass completion rates (56% => 55% => 63%). Meanwhile, we have seriously cut out mis-controls (4.16 => 3.61 => 2.63) and dispossessions (3.31 => 3 => 1.22). Our progressive passing has improved a bit (11.29 progressive passes per 90 for 403.71 yards and 9.59 passes into the final 1/3rd in 22/23, 12.61 passes for 487.5 yards and 9.11 passes into the final 1/3rd in 23/24, and 14.37 passes for 487.63 yards and 11.56 passes into the final 1/3rd today). But it's our carrying that has really improved (3.5 progressive carries for 149.13 yards and 2.89 into the final 1/3rd in 22/23, 3.18 carries for 176.24 yards and 3.34 carries into the final 1/3rd in 23/24, 4.59 carries for 232.89 yards and 4.52 carries into the final 1/3rd this season). The only thing that hasn't improved is our switching of play, which Palhinha was the key to and has dropped off since he left (1.76 switches per 90 in 22/23, 0.87 in 23/24, and 0.62 this season).

3. Creating & Scoring: All this possession and progression appears to have the biggest impact in reducing the need for our midfield to defend and respond to turnovers rather than making us a lot more creative, but the ability of Berge, Lukic and ESR to carry the ball better than Palhinha, Reed, Cairney and Andreas appears to have had some impact at the business end. To that end, our midfield is making marginally fewer passes into the penalty area (1.97 in 22/23, 2.26 in 23/24, 1.89 today) and completed crosses into the penalty area (0.68 in 22/23, 0.47 in 23/24, 0.44 today), but is carrying the ball into the penalty area a lot more (2.89 in 22/23, 3.34 in 23/24, 4.52 in 24/25). The end result appears to be slightly improved creation. While key passes (3 in 22/23, 3.89 in 23/24, 3.89 today), expected assists (0.29 in 22/23, 0.32 in 23/24, 0.32 today) and assists (0.26 in 22/23, 0.37 in 23/24, 0.26 today) are more-or-less steady, our midfield is making many more shot-creating actions from live play (4.76 in 22/23, 5.5 in 23/24, 6.19 in 24/25). Meanwhile, our goal scoring from midfield has held steady in terms of both expected goals (0.36 in 22/23, 0.29 in 23/24, 0.31 today) and actual goals (0.32 per 90 in 22/23, 0.24 in 23/24, 0.3 today).

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And to be clear, those numbers derive only from the overall numbers provided by our core midfield players each season (i.e. Andreas, Palhinha, Reed, Cairney and Lukic in 22/23 and 23/24; Andreas, ESR, Berge, Lukic, Cairney and Reed in 24/25). So I'm just isolating our midfield contribution here. (NT) -- eganonoa, Wednesday, March 05, 06:34:58pm (pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net/108.18.149.21)
Interesting. Thanks for that👍 (NT) -- MH, Wednesday, March 05, 09:11:25pm (180-150-113-29.NBN.mel.aussiebb.net/180.150.113.29)
- Thanks! (NT) -- eganonoa, Wednesday, March 05, 09:34:01pm (pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net/108.18.149.21)
Thanks indeed for this. For context....We've let in 6 less than last season after 27, despite losing JP and Leno seeming less special. Clearly fewer *tackles* haven't spoiled things. (How often did Bobby Moore tackle?) And we've scored one goal more, without the bump-up of two 5-0 wins in December, so a more steady, convincing route. You show how quite a lot has changed going forward, which also is intriguing -- as well as promising as it still looks like work in progress. (NT) -- b+w g., Thursday, March 06, 12:34:25am (68.52.159.143.dyn.plus.net/143.159.52.68)
- Good point about those 5-0 wins. It does seem a more steady, convincing route, even while we struggle against those teams that retreat entirely into their own half. It really seems like a true foundation has been set. League leaders in accurate long-balls, accurate crosses, and holding onto the ball (fewest miscontrols+ dispossessions in the league); near the top in progressive passing and carrying. We're so close (to me, a scoring winger and flying right back) to being genuinely terrifying. (NT) -- eganonoa, Thursday, March 06, 02:20:08am (pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net/108.18.149.21)
  - And maybe the only stat that matters, we've 7 points more than at same stage last time. Without those spectacular drubbings, without the guy many feared we'd not do without, with no new striker, with our loanee winger barely featuring... Would hardly have banked on it. The developments you report (among other stuff that's unchanged) either coincide by accident or are responsible. If the former, it was a waste of time researching and delivering your post and a waste of time ploughing through it. (NT) -- b+w g., Thursday, March 06, 08:06:35am (68.52.159.143.dyn.plus.net/143.159.52.68)
    - It says a lot about Marco's skills. Can't help but compare him to Amorim at ManU. Marco's proven to be supremely adaptable, shaping systems around the players he has, not the other way around. I suspect that we're probably approaching his ideal, yet with the occasional use of a back-3 that we're seeing, it's clear we've not seen the end of his evolution. That's why this data is particularly interesting to me. It helps establish baselines so that we can better see changes (NT) -- eganonoa, Thursday, March 06, 01:35:15pm (pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net/108.18.149.21)
If only posters could be honest and admit they are adverse to long reads and statistics, instead of using insults. That's a great analysis of available data and helps us to understand that developing a successful team is far more complex than signing a 25 goal a season striker. Although ESR has not always performed, he is that player who can carry the ball forward into the box. (NT) -- Juana Aorta, Thursday, March 06, 07:54:30am (host86-160-162-193.range86-160.btcentralplus.com/86.160.162.193)
- Spot-on last two sentences from you there. Previously you refer to insults, now removed, I also allude to. (NT) -- b+w g., Thursday, March 06, 08:22:08am (68.52.159.143.dyn.plus.net/143.159.52.68)
- Thanks. Yes, there's a commentator on the Guardian who always posts uber-detailed match reports. They're too long for me most of the times, so I often skip them. But I appreciate that he does them and most definitely don't insult him for doing it. ESR has definitely had an impact. Three areas: (1) replacing the goals we used to get from Pal and Reed and don't with Berge and Lukic; (2) the carries and lack of miscrontrols and dispossessions (3) assured passing at near Cairney levels. (NT) -- eganonoa, Thursday, March 06, 01:05:43pm (pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net/108.18.149.21)
Pretty much adds stats to what we see week in week out. The progressive carries we see much more of- Iwobi and ESR are great at this, along with others. The switching of the play you put down to Palhinha, but i wonder if Tosin topped the bunch on those, his long passing was impressive (when he wasn't standing there thinking he was better than Beckenbauer). There's a few areas that we can improve- perhaps the biggest being goals from MF the powers that be will be only too aware of this. (NT) -- Jim© The Devon IP, Thursday, March 06, 09:25:42am (62-64-192-58.virtual1.co.uk/62.64.192.58)
- Those switching numbers only looked at the midfield. If you go team wide, the leaders last year were Palhinha, then William, then a mush of players including Tosin. This year Andersen has replaced Palhinha and Iwobi has replaced Willian, then the same mush. Its strange as I'd never have imagined Pal was the man for this and I would've expected Berge to do it more, though that deep central playmaker role appears to be in Andersen's capable hands now. (NT) -- eganonoa, Thursday, March 06, 12:55:49pm (pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net/108.18.149.21)
To be honest, I always thought our midfield would play more attractive, attacking, possession-based football this season because there is no Palhinha (who was undeniably immense). However, he is very well suited to a system where the team does not have the ball much, e.g. Forest. We have progressed beyond that and thus rely less on a ball winner to break up opposition play. As good as he is, I'm not surprised by his lack of game time at Bayern. Lukic and Berge both carry the ball very well. (NT) -- Neil G, Thursday, March 06, 11:53:16am (NoHost/62.64.164.110)
- What's interesting is that I have no doubt that Marco would have wanted to keep him, yet as soon as he left Marco's gone about building a team on different principles. The fact that we quite simply do not miss him at all speaks volume's about Marco's ability (NT) -- eganonoa, Thursday, March 06, 01:29:28pm (pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net/108.18.149.21)

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